5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.56 (banked floor $116.75) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $2,419/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $294/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-14,517 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 4 × $94 | 80% | $1,440 | $-3,093 |
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 4 × $94 | 70% | $1,400 | $-1,141 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $100 | 31 Jul | 2d | 10.2% | 98%hist 100% | 4%hist 1% | +3pp | $20 | $300 | -$1,140 | $7,003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 10.2% OTM over spot $90.73 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.08 mid) = $20 credit for the 2d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $100.08) 98% EV / mo +$225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-36/mo median; plan ~$-25/mo after 68% keep · $-208 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.2-3.6], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,232 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $102 @ 69% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.43/sh now → $3.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $100.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$7,003 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,258 (+$6,260 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,984, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,684, position total $-9,131 (+$5,386 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield ← lean | 5 × $98 | 31 Jul | 2d | 8.0% | 96%hist 100% | 9%hist 1% | +5pp | $40 | $600 | -$840 | $9,739 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 8.0% OTM over spot $90.73 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.15 mid) = $40 credit for the 2d cycle → $600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $99.15) 98% EV / mo +$354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $181/mo median; plan ~$123/mo after 68% keep · $693 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.1-4.6], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,467 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $100 @ 69% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.26/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 103 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $99 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $99.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,739 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,239 (+$4,279 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,965, the opportunity cost of earning $600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,090, position total $-10,538 (+$3,979 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $94 | 31 Jul | 2d | 3.6% | 80%hist 96% | 41%hist 28% | +5pp | $72 | $1,080 | -$360 | $6,995 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $94 3.6% OTM over spot $90.73 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.73 mid) = $72 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $94.73) 84% EV / mo $-319 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $270/mo median; plan ~$184/mo after 68% keep · $1,574 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.2-4.8], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$765 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $96 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.20–$6.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 717 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $96 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $24 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $94.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $94): -$6,995 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $110): -$1,510 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,005 (+$5,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,731, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,006, position total $-10,452 (+$4,065 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $94 | 31 Jul | 2d | 3.6% | 80%hist 96% | 41%hist 28% | +9pp | $96 | $1,440 | — | $9,327 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $94 3.6% OTM over spot $90.73 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.73 mid) = $96 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,440/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $94.73) 84% EV / mo $-425 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 49% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $448/mo median; plan ~$305/mo after 68% keep · $2,554 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-5.0], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,021 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $96 @ 70% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.22–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $96 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $24 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $94.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $94): -$9,327 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,582 (+$3,936 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,308, the opportunity cost of earning $1,440/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,008, position total $-11,455 (+$3,062 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $93 | 31 Jul | 2d | 2.5% | 72%hist 96% | 57%hist 43% | +14pp | $188 | $2,820 | +$1,380 | $9,635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $93 2.5% OTM over spot $90.73 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $1.23 mid) = $188 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,820/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $94.23) 81% EV / mo $-289 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +14pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~9.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $906/mo median; plan ~$616/mo after 68% keep · $5,549 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.7 mo [1.4-4.5], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$907 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $97 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.87/sh now → $2.74 mid-life (likely $3.27–$6.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,066 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $95 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $25 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $94.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93): -$9,635 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,890 (+$3,628 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,616, the opportunity cost of earning $2,820/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,316, position total $-11,763 (+$2,754 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $100 | 7 Aug | 9d | 10.2% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +3pp | $100 | $333 | -$1,067 | $6,923 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $100 10.2% OTM over spot $90.73 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $100 credit for the 9d cycle → $333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $100.57) 92% EV / mo +$123 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-61/mo median; plan ~$-42/mo after 68% keep · $-413 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.8-5.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,372 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $101 @ 68% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.20/sh now → $3.68 mid-life (likely $2.94–$5.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $101 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $100.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $100): -$6,923 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,178 (+$6,340 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,904, the opportunity cost of earning $333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,604, position total $-9,051 (+$5,466 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $100 | 7 Aug | 9d | 10.2% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +4pp | $125 | $417 | -$983 | $8,654 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 10.2% OTM over spot $90.73 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.57 mid) = $125 credit for the 9d cycle → $417/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $100.57) 92% EV / mo +$154 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 43% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6/mo median; plan ~$-4/mo after 68% keep · $-35 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.0-5.7], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,714 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $101 @ 68% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.20/sh now → $3.68 mid-life (likely $2.99–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 353 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $101 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $100.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,654 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,154 (+$5,364 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,880, the opportunity cost of earning $417/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,005, position total $-9,453 (+$5,064 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $95 | 7 Aug | 9d | 4.7% | 75%hist 96% | 52%hist 43% | +3pp | $244 | $813 | -$587 | $8,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $95 4.7% OTM over spot $90.73 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.52 mid) = $244 credit for the 9d cycle → $813/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $96.53) 81% EV / mo $-202 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $80/mo median; plan ~$54/mo after 68% keep · $510 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [2.0-5.6], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,080 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $97 @ 70% POP 61% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.68/sh now → $3.31 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,242 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $96 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $23 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $96.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $95): -$8,779 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,034 (+$4,484 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,760, the opportunity cost of earning $813/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,460, position total $-10,907 (+$3,610 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $94 | 7 Aug | 9d | 3.6% | 70%hist 80% | 62%hist 51% | +6pp | $420 | $1,400 | — | $9,003 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $94 3.6% OTM over spot $90.73 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.30 mid) = $420 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $94) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $96.30) 80% EV / mo +$56 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $286/mo median; plan ~$194/mo after 68% keep · $1,944 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.4], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$875 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $97 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.58/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.87–$5.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,461 simulated challenges: the $94 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $95 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $94 is $24 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $96.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $94)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $94): -$9,003 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,258 (+$4,260 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,984, the opportunity cost of earning $1,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,684, position total $-11,131 (+$3,386 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $90 | 7 Aug | 9d | -0.8% | 47% | 100%hist 90% | · | $740 | $2,467 | +$1,067 | $10,283 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $90 0.8% ITM over spot $90.73 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.20 mid) = $740 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,467/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $90) 47% Breach risk 53% POP (stays ≤ $93.20) 66% EV / mo $-1,070 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$444 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $97 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.19/sh now → $2.96 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $90 is $28 below CC-SS $117.56: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $93.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $90)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.20 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.56, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-14,517 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,018 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $90): -$10,283 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$755 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,538 (+$2,980 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,274 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,264, the opportunity cost of earning $2,467/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.26 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,964, position total $-12,411 (+$2,106 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.045 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,018 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,274
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.24 | 4/5 | $1,440 | $1,148 | 80% | 84% | $-425 | -$9,327 | 69.0% | $-10,582 (vs do-nothing $-6,308) |
| $93 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 2/5 | $1,410 | $1,122 | 72% | 81% | $-144 | -$4,818 | 35.6% | $-7,582 (vs do-nothing $-3,308) |
| $96 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.93 | 5/5 | $1,259 | $965 | 70% | 76% | +$160 | -$9,814 | 72.6% | $-10,314 (vs do-nothing $-6,040) |
| $94 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.05 | 4/5 | $1,400 | $1,108 | 70% | 80% | +$56 | -$9,003 | 66.6% | $-10,258 (vs do-nothing $-5,984) |
| $95 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 5/5 | $1,422 | $1,128 | 67% | 74% | +$135 | -$10,189 | 75.4% | $-10,689 (vs do-nothing $-6,415) |
| $93 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.79 | 5/5 | $1,317 | $1,023 | 65% | 76% | $-876 | -$11,884 | 87.9% | $-12,384 (vs do-nothing $-8,110) |
| $94 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.36 | 4/5 | $1,231 | $939 | 64% | 73% | +$33 | -$8,479 | 62.7% | $-9,734 (vs do-nothing $-5,460) |
| $92 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 1/5 | $1,320 | $1,033 | 63% | 74% | +$89 | -$2,468 | 18.3% | $-5,987 (vs do-nothing $-1,713) |
| $93 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.68 | 4/5 | $1,260 | $968 | 61% | 72% | $-401 | -$9,151 | 67.7% | $-10,406 (vs do-nothing $-6,132) |
| $93 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 4/5 | $1,477 | $1,184 | 61% | 71% | +$88 | -$8,691 | 64.3% | $-9,946 (vs do-nothing $-5,672) |
| $92 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.89 | 5/5 | $1,483 | $1,189 | 59% | 71% | $-1,332 | -$12,334 | 91.2% | $-12,834 (vs do-nothing $-8,560) |
| $92.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.95 | 4/5 | $1,539 | $1,247 | 59% | 70% | +$48 | -$8,843 | 65.4% | $-10,098 (vs do-nothing $-5,824) |
| $92 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.17 | 3/5 | $1,221 | $930 | 58% | 70% | $-119 | -$7,016 | 51.9% | $-9,026 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 3/5 | $1,252 | $962 | 57% | 69% | +$53 | -$6,707 | 49.6% | $-8,717 (vs do-nothing $-4,443) |
| $91 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.91 | 1/5 | $1,365 | $1,078 | 54% | 73% | $-480 | -$2,565 | 19.0% | $-6,084 (vs do-nothing $-1,810) |
| $91 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 3/5 | $1,467 | $1,177 | 53% | 68% | +$93 | -$6,842 | 50.6% | $-8,852 (vs do-nothing $-4,578) |
| $91 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.58 | 3/5 | $1,451 | $1,161 | 53% | 67% | $-141 | -$7,193 | 53.2% | $-9,203 (vs do-nothing $-4,929) |
| $91 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 3/5 | $1,330 | $1,040 | 53% | 68% | $-804 | -$7,568 | 56.0% | $-9,578 (vs do-nothing $-5,304) |
| $90 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 3/5 | $1,624 | $1,334 | 50% | 66% | +$58 | -$7,022 | 51.9% | $-9,032 (vs do-nothing $-4,758) |
| $90 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.65 | 3/5 | $1,491 | $1,200 | 49% | 66% | $-388 | -$7,472 | 55.3% | $-9,482 (vs do-nothing $-5,208) |
| $90 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 2/5 | $1,233 | $945 | 47% | 66% | $-535 | -$5,142 | 38.0% | $-7,906 (vs do-nothing $-3,632) |
| $89 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 2/5 | $1,239 | $951 | 46% | 64% | +$56 | -$4,762 | 35.2% | $-7,526 (vs do-nothing $-3,252) |
| $89 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 3/5 | $1,772 | $1,482 | 44% | 64% | $-426 | -$7,622 | 56.4% | $-9,632 (vs do-nothing $-5,358) |
| $90 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 1/5 | $1,260 | $973 | 44% | 65% | $-1,368 | -$2,672 | 19.8% | $-6,191 (vs do-nothing $-1,917) |
| $89 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.53 | 2/5 | $1,687 | $1,398 | 41% | 63% | $-475 | -$5,206 | 38.5% | $-7,970 (vs do-nothing $-3,696) |
| $89 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.75 | 1/5 | $2,625 | $2,338 | 34% | 62% | $-950 | -$2,681 | 19.8% | $-6,200 (vs do-nothing $-1,926) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.