5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $118.11 (banked floor $117.31) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $2,500/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $261/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,905 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 5 × $96 | 72% | $1,350 | $-224 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $100 | 7 Aug | 8d | 8.1% | 88%hist 99% | 24%hist 13% | +3pp | $75 | $281 | -$1,069 | $5,357 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $100 8.1% OTM over spot $92.51 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.43 mid) = $75 credit for the 8d cycle → $281/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $100.43) 89% EV / mo +$22 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 40% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-74/mo median; plan ~$-50/mo after 68% keep · $-543 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-5.7], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$528 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $105 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.84/sh now → $2.01 mid-life (likely $1.75–$2.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 506 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $118.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $100.43 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,519 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $100): -$5,357 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $110): -$1,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,363 (+$4,542 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,928, the opportunity cost of earning $281/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,209, position total $-9,816 (+$4,089 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $98 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.9% | 81%hist 99% | 38%hist 18% | +7pp | $260 | $975 | -$375 | $9,794 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 5.9% OTM over spot $92.51 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.71 mid) = $260 credit for the 8d cycle → $975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $98.71) 84% EV / mo +$132 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 34% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $264/mo median; plan ~$179/mo after 68% keep · $2,017 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.1-6.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$703 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $103 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.72/sh now → $1.93 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 825 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $1.34). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $118.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.52 collected) or spot ≥ $98.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,519 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,794 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,180 (+$1,725 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,745, the opportunity cost of earning $975/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,880, position total $-11,489 (+$2,416 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $96 | 7 Aug | 8d | 3.8% | 72%hist 96% | 57%hist 43% | +7pp | $360 | $1,350 | — | $10,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 3.8% OTM over spot $92.51 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.98 mid) = $360 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $96.98) 77% EV / mo $-217 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $318/mo median; plan ~$216/mo after 68% keep · $2,318 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.4 mo [2.0-5.8], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$563 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $102 @ 79% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.61/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,328 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $97 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $22 below CC-SS $118.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $96.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,519 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,694 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,080 (+$825 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,645, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,780, position total $-12,389 (+$1,516 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $93 | 7 Aug | 8d | 0.5% | 54%hist 79% | 93%hist 90% | +10pp | $712 | $2,670 | +$1,320 | $9,331 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $93 0.5% OTM over spot $92.51 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.98 mid) = $712 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,670/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $93) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $94.98) 67% EV / mo $-149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 41% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~11.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $509/mo median; plan ~$346/mo after 68% keep · $3,927 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.7 mo [2.2-5.7], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 76% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$21 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $105 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.44/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $2.39–$3.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.78/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,280 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $95 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $93 is $25 below CC-SS $118.11: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.45/sh (~25% of the $1.78 collected) or spot ≥ $94.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $98.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.11, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,905 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,519 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $93): -$9,331 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$810 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,527 (+$1,378 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,435 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,092, the opportunity cost of earning $2,670/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.28 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,800, position total $-12,408 (+$1,497 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$11,519 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,435
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.72 | 5/5 | $1,350 | $1,089 | 72% | 77% | $-217 | -$10,694 | 79.1% | $-13,080 (vs do-nothing $-6,645) |
| $96 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.49 | 5/5 | $1,490 | $1,229 | 67% | 74% | $-20 | -$10,309 | 76.2% | $-12,695 (vs do-nothing $-6,260) |
| $96 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.08 | 5/5 | $1,418 | $1,157 | 66% | 73% | +$105 | -$10,014 | 74.1% | $-12,400 (vs do-nothing $-5,965) |
| $95 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.81 | 4/5 | $1,448 | $1,189 | 63% | 71% | $-14 | -$8,519 | 63.0% | $-11,715 (vs do-nothing $-5,280) |
| $95 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.34 | 4/5 | $1,276 | $1,017 | 62% | 72% | +$39 | -$8,307 | 61.4% | $-11,503 (vs do-nothing $-5,068) |
| $94 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 3/5 | $1,496 | $1,239 | 61% | 73% | $-145 | -$6,833 | 50.5% | $-10,839 (vs do-nothing $-4,404) |
| $94 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 3/5 | $1,290 | $1,033 | 59% | 69% | $-29 | -$6,587 | 48.7% | $-10,593 (vs do-nothing $-4,158) |
| $94 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.77 | 4/5 | $1,511 | $1,252 | 58% | 70% | +$61 | -$8,535 | 63.1% | $-11,731 (vs do-nothing $-5,296) |
| $93 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.78 | 2/5 | $1,335 | $1,080 | 54% | 67% | $-74 | -$4,666 | 34.5% | $-9,481 (vs do-nothing $-3,046) |
| $93 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.50 | 3/5 | $1,500 | $1,243 | 54% | 67% | $-75 | -$6,782 | 50.2% | $-10,788 (vs do-nothing $-4,353) |
| $93 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $1,664 | $1,405 | 54% | 67% | $-25 | -$8,823 | 65.3% | $-12,019 (vs do-nothing $-5,584) |
| $92.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 3/5 | $1,350 | $1,093 | 52% | 67% | $-13 | -$6,692 | 49.5% | $-10,698 (vs do-nothing $-4,263) |
| $92 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $1,452 | $1,195 | 50% | 65% | $-68 | -$6,767 | 50.1% | $-10,773 (vs do-nothing $-4,338) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $92 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.94 | 3/5 | $1,764 | $1,507 | 49% | 64% | $-103 | -$6,950 | 51.4% | $-10,956 (vs do-nothing $-4,521) |
| $92 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 2/5 | $1,612 | $1,358 | 48% | 63% | $-170 | -$4,792 | 35.4% | $-9,607 (vs do-nothing $-3,172) |
| $91 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 3/5 | $1,657 | $1,400 | 46% | 64% | $-28 | -$6,917 | 51.2% | $-10,923 (vs do-nothing $-4,488) |
| $91 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 2/5 | $1,380 | $1,125 | 45% | 62% | $-84 | -$4,732 | 35.0% | $-9,547 (vs do-nothing $-3,112) |
| $91 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.52 | 2/5 | $1,890 | $1,635 | 42% | 62% | $-326 | -$4,918 | 36.4% | $-9,733 (vs do-nothing $-3,298) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.