5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.54 | CC-SS: $117.98 (banked floor $117.18) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $28,520 | (ND $27.04 + SW $30) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $1,950/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $231/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,875 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 5 × $98 | 82% | $1,144 | $58 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $99 | 7 Aug | 8d | 7.1% | 86%hist 99% | 28%hist 13% | +2pp | $80 | $300 | -$844 | $7,514 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $99 7.1% OTM over spot $92.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.57 mid) = $80 credit for the 8d cycle → $300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $99.58) 88% EV / mo $-103 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-42/mo median; plan ~$-29/mo after 68% keep · $-238 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.8-5.5], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$817 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $103 @ 73% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.17/sh now → $2.24 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 597 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $100 (overshoots $1.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $19 below CC-SS $117.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $99.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $97.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,623 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $99): -$7,514 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $110): -$797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,564 (+$5,311 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,324, the opportunity cost of earning $300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,048, position total $-9,589 (+$4,286 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 3 × $98 | 7 Aug | 8d | 6.0% | 82%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +3pp | $183 | $686 | -$458 | $5,812 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $98 6.0% OTM over spot $92.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.70 mid) = $183 credit for the 8d cycle → $686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $98.70) 85% EV / mo +$250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 48% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $156/mo median; plan ~$106/mo after 68% keep · $1,067 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.9 mo [1.5-5.3], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$476 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $104 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.20 mid-life (likely $2.16–$3.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 810 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $117.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $98.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $97.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,623 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $98): -$5,812 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $110): -$1,595 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,660 (+$6,215 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,420, the opportunity cost of earning $686/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,713, position total $-9,253 (+$4,622 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $98 | 7 Aug | 8d | 6.0% | 82%hist 99% | 36%hist 18% | +8pp | $305 | $1,144 | — | $9,687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 6.0% OTM over spot $92.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.70 mid) = $305 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,144/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $98.70) 85% EV / mo +$416 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $395/mo median; plan ~$269/mo after 68% keep · $2,974 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.1 mo [1.7-5.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$793 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $104 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.10/sh now → $2.20 mid-life (likely $2.13–$3.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 764 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $1.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $117.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.61 collected) or spot ≥ $98.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $97.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,623 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,687 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,940 (+$3,935 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,700, the opportunity cost of earning $1,144/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,855, position total $-10,397 (+$3,478 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $95 | 7 Aug | 8d | 2.8% | 67%hist 80% | 66%hist 51% | +13pp | $585 | $2,194 | +$1,050 | $10,907 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $95 2.8% OTM over spot $92.45 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.54 mid) = $585 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,194/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $95) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $96.55) 76% EV / mo +$268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 54% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $617/mo median; plan ~$419/mo after 68% keep · $4,314 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.2 mo [1.9-5.3], measured ONLY among the 54% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 51% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$442 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $103 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.90/sh now → $2.05 mid-life (likely $2.50–$3.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,525 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $96 (overshoots $1.30). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $95 is $23 below CC-SS $117.98: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.17 collected) or spot ≥ $96.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $97.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.98, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,875 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,623 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,907 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,160 (+$2,715 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,240 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,920, the opportunity cost of earning $2,194/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $104.32 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,075, position total $-11,617 (+$2,258 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.067 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,623 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,240
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.61 | 5/5 | $1,144 | $913 | 82% | 85% | +$416 | -$9,687 | 71.7% | $-9,940 (vs do-nothing $-5,700) |
| $97 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.59 | 5/5 | $1,106 | $875 | 78% | 82% | +$78 | -$10,197 | 75.4% | $-10,450 (vs do-nothing $-6,210) |
| $99 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 5/5 | $1,030 | $799 | 75% | 80% | +$246 | -$8,737 | 64.6% | $-8,990 (vs do-nothing $-4,750) |
| $96 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 4/5 | $1,275 | $1,046 | 73% | 79% | +$137 | -$8,454 | 62.5% | $-9,504 (vs do-nothing $-5,264) |
| $98 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 5/5 | $1,050 | $819 | 72% | 78% | +$113 | -$9,222 | 68.2% | $-9,475 (vs do-nothing $-5,235) |
| $97.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.76 | 5/5 | $1,200 | $969 | 71% | 77% | +$177 | -$9,362 | 69.2% | $-9,615 (vs do-nothing $-5,375) |
| $97 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.86 | 4/5 | $1,015 | $786 | 69% | 76% | +$123 | -$7,650 | 56.6% | $-8,700 (vs do-nothing $-4,460) |
| $96 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 4/5 | $1,280 | $1,051 | 68% | 76% | +$159 | -$8,154 | 60.3% | $-9,204 (vs do-nothing $-4,964) |
| $95 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.17 | 3/5 | $1,316 | $1,089 | 67% | 76% | +$161 | -$6,544 | 48.4% | $-8,392 (vs do-nothing $-4,152) |
| $96 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 4/5 | $1,249 | $1,020 | 66% | 74% | +$193 | -$7,878 | 58.3% | $-8,928 (vs do-nothing $-4,688) |
| $95 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.08 | 5/5 | $1,080 | $849 | 64% | 72% | $-641 | -$10,952 | 81.0% | $-11,205 (vs do-nothing $-6,965) |
| $95 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.64 | 3/5 | $1,080 | $853 | 62% | 72% | +$148 | -$6,103 | 45.1% | $-7,951 (vs do-nothing $-3,711) |
| $94 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.55 | 2/5 | $1,162 | $938 | 61% | 73% | +$141 | -$4,487 | 33.2% | $-7,132 (vs do-nothing $-2,892) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $94 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 4/5 | $1,056 | $827 | 59% | 69% | $-618 | -$9,066 | 67.1% | $-10,116 (vs do-nothing $-5,876) |
| $94 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 3/5 | $1,125 | $898 | 58% | 70% | +$33 | -$6,370 | 47.1% | $-8,218 (vs do-nothing $-3,978) |
| $93 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.99 | 2/5 | $1,492 | $1,268 | 55% | 70% | +$165 | -$4,599 | 34.0% | $-7,244 (vs do-nothing $-3,004) |
| $93 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 3/5 | $1,080 | $853 | 54% | 69% | $-431 | -$6,955 | 51.4% | $-8,803 (vs do-nothing $-4,563) |
| $93 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 3/5 | $1,309 | $1,082 | 54% | 69% | +$39 | -$6,535 | 48.3% | $-8,383 (vs do-nothing $-4,143) |
| $92.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 2/5 | $982 | $757 | 52% | 68% | +$70 | -$4,377 | 32.4% | $-7,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,782) |
| $92 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 2/5 | $1,050 | $825 | 50% | 68% | +$71 | -$4,427 | 32.7% | $-7,072 (vs do-nothing $-2,832) |
| $92 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 3/5 | $1,440 | $1,213 | 50% | 66% | $-360 | -$7,075 | 52.3% | $-8,923 (vs do-nothing $-4,683) |
| $92 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.25 | 2/5 | $1,688 | $1,462 | 48% | 65% | $-4 | -$4,747 | 35.1% | $-7,392 (vs do-nothing $-3,152) |
| $91 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 2/5 | $1,173 | $948 | 46% | 65% | +$48 | -$4,537 | 33.6% | $-7,182 (vs do-nothing $-2,942) |
| $91 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.63 | 2/5 | $1,052 | $827 | 45% | 64% | $-364 | -$4,871 | 36.0% | $-7,516 (vs do-nothing $-3,276) |
| $91 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 1/5 | $1,069 | $846 | 42% | 64% | +$12 | -$2,413 | 17.9% | $-5,856 (vs do-nothing $-1,616) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.