10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.96 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,346/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,745/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-3,975 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 10 × $113 | 68% | $7,929 | $2,462 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 7 × $120 | 17 Jul | 7d | 10.0% | 88% | 25% | $420 | $1,800 | -$6,129 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $120 10.0% OTM over spot $109.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.65 mid) = $420 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $120.64) 89% EV / mo +$732 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $525 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,485 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $136 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.85/sh now → $2.72 mid-life (likely $2.55–$4.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 456 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $122 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $112.96: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $120.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $112.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,580 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $120): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $109): +$851 Total Position P&L @ SS: $456 (+$4,431 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,986, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 10 × $116 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.3% | 78% | 44% | $1,140 | $4,886 | -$3,043 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $116 6.3% OTM over spot $109.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.21 mid) = $1,140 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $116) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $117.22) 82% EV / mo +$1,345 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (0.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $733 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,491 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.84–$4.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 937 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $118 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $116 is at/above CC-SS $112.96: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $117.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $116)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $112.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,580 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $116): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-395 (+$3,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,837, the opportunity cost of earning $4,886/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $113 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 68% | 50% | $1,850 | $7,929 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $113 3.6% OTM over spot $109.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.93 mid) = $1,850 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $114.93) 75% EV / mo +$1,502 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,792 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$713 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $139 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.62/sh now → $2.56 mid-life (likely $3.14–$4.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,493 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $113 is at/above CC-SS $112.96: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $114.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $112.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,580 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $113): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-395 (+$3,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,837, the opportunity cost of earning $7,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | -1.0% | 47% | 99+% | $3,420 | $14,657 | +$6,729 | $1,047 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $108 1.0% ITM over spot $109.11 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.92 mid) = $3,420 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,657/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 47% Breach risk 53% POP (stays ≤ $111.92) 64% EV / mo +$911 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,215 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $128 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $5 below CC-SS $112.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $111.92 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.17 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $112.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,975 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,580 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $108): -$1,047 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$284 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,158 (+$2,817 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $2,442 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,600, the opportunity cost of earning $14,657/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.928 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,580 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,442
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $119 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 10/10 | $7,179 | $5,434 | 73% | 79% | +$1,716 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,955 (vs do-nothing +$513) |
| $118 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 10/10 | $7,714 | $5,969 | 71% | 78% | +$1,733 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,205 (vs do-nothing +$763) |
| $117 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 9/10 | $7,521 | $7,234 | 70% | 76% | +$1,631 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,399 (vs do-nothing +$957) |
| $113 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 10/10 | $7,929 | $6,184 | 68% | 75% | +$1,502 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,455 (vs do-nothing $-987) |
| $116 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 9/10 | $8,004 | $7,716 | 68% | 75% | +$1,565 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,624 (vs do-nothing +$1,182) |
| $115 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 8/10 | $7,714 | $8,884 | 66% | 74% | +$1,464 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,773 (vs do-nothing +$1,330) |
| $115 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 10/10 | $7,571 | $5,827 | 65% | 74% | +$1,281 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,905 (vs do-nothing +$2,463) |
| $112 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.16 | 8/10 | $7,406 | $8,575 | 64% | 73% | +$1,205 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,130 (vs do-nothing $-1,312) |
| $114 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 7/10 | $7,200 | $9,827 | 64% | 73% | +$1,235 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,816 (vs do-nothing +$1,374) |
| $114 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 10/10 | $7,929 | $6,184 | 63% | 73% | +$1,177 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,155 (vs do-nothing +$2,713) |
| $113 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 7/10 | $7,725 | $10,352 | 62% | 72% | +$1,226 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,061 (vs do-nothing +$1,619) |
| $113 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 9/10 | $7,586 | $7,298 | 61% | 72% | +$1,013 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,199 (vs do-nothing +$2,757) |
| $111 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 7/10 | $7,500 | $10,127 | 60% | 70% | +$999 | -$0 | 0.0% | $832 (vs do-nothing $-1,610) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 7/10 | $8,175 | $10,802 | 60% | 71% | +$1,104 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,597 (vs do-nothing +$1,155) |
| $112 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 8/10 | $7,200 | $8,369 | 59% | 71% | +$916 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,442 (vs do-nothing +$2,000) |
| $111 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 6/10 | $7,457 | $11,541 | 57% | 70% | +$872 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,042 (vs do-nothing +$600) |
| $111 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 8/10 | $7,657 | $8,827 | 57% | 70% | +$906 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,962 (vs do-nothing +$1,520) |
| $110 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.90 | 6/10 | $7,457 | $11,541 | 56% | 68% | +$829 | -$38 | 0.1% | $702 (vs do-nothing $-1,740) |
| $110 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 8/10 | $7,886 | $9,055 | 55% | 69% | +$642 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,322 (vs do-nothing +$880) |
| $110 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 6/10 | $8,164 | $12,248 | 55% | 69% | +$1,019 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,772 (vs do-nothing +$330) |
| $109 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 7/10 | $7,600 | $10,227 | 53% | 68% | +$807 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,002 (vs do-nothing +$560) |
| $109 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 5/10 | $7,286 | $12,827 | 53% | 68% | +$836 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,442 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $108 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 7/10 | $8,050 | $10,677 | 51% | 67% | +$779 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,617 (vs do-nothing +$175) |
| $109 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 6/10 | $8,486 | $12,569 | 51% | 66% | +$661 | -$398 | 1.4% | $342 (vs do-nothing $-2,100) |
| $108 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 5/10 | $7,768 | $13,309 | 51% | 67% | +$792 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,167 (vs do-nothing $-275) |
| $107 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 6/10 | $7,286 | $11,369 | 49% | 67% | +$623 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,262 (vs do-nothing $-180) |
| $107 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 5/10 | $8,250 | $13,791 | 48% | 66% | +$718 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,892 (vs do-nothing $-550) |
| $108 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/10 | $8,143 | $13,684 | 47% | 64% | +$506 | -$582 | 2.1% | $442 (vs do-nothing $-2,000) |
| $107 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/10 | $7,371 | $14,369 | 42% | 62% | +$273 | -$665 | 2.4% | $642 (vs do-nothing $-1,800) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.