10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $110.83 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,822/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,760/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-2,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 10 × $113 | 71% | $7,286 | $2,082 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $121 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.5% | 86% | 28% | $440 | $1,886 | -$5,400 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $121 11.5% OTM over spot $108.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $440 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,886/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $121) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $121.50) 87% EV / mo $-495 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-117 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,392 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $138 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $2.38–$4.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $123 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $121 is at/above CC-SS $110.83: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $121.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $121)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,159 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $121): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-366 (+$2,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,408 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,774, the opportunity cost of earning $1,886/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $115 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.0% | 77% | 46% | $1,107 | $4,744 | -$2,541 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $115 6.0% OTM over spot $108.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.28 mid) = $1,107 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,744/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $116.28) 81% EV / mo +$1,364 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-12 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,316 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $137 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.81/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.89–$4.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,034 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $117 (overshoots $1.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $115 is at/above CC-SS $110.83: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.23 collected) or spot ≥ $116.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,159 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $115): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$477 Total Position P&L @ SS: $111 (+$2,636 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,408 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,297, the opportunity cost of earning $4,744/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $113 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.1% | 71% | 46% | $1,700 | $7,286 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $113 4.1% OTM over spot $108.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.77 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $113) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $114.77) 77% EV / mo +$1,707 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,289 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$945 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $140 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $3.10–$4.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,377 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $113 is at/above CC-SS $110.83: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $114.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $113)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,159 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $113): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-366 (+$2,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,408 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,774, the opportunity cost of earning $7,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $108 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.5% | 49% | 99+% | $3,500 | $15,000 | +$7,714 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $108 0.5% ITM over spot $108.50 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.67 mid) = $3,500 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $111.67) 66% EV / mo +$1,396 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$972 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $128 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.57/sh now → $2.53 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.97/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $108 is at/above CC-SS $110.83: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $111.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $114.07 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.93 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.83, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,159 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $108): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-366 (+$2,159 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,408 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,774, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.928 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,159 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,408
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 10/10 | $7,393 | $5,633 | 73% | 78% | +$1,826 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,084 (vs do-nothing $-1,324) |
| $117 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 9/10 | $7,136 | $6,790 | 71% | 77% | +$1,649 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,441 (vs do-nothing $-967) |
| $113 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 10/10 | $7,286 | $5,526 | 71% | 77% | +$1,707 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,334 (vs do-nothing $-3,074) |
| $116 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 9/10 | $7,714 | $7,368 | 69% | 76% | +$1,711 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,711 (vs do-nothing $-697) |
| $116 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 10/10 | $6,929 | $5,168 | 68% | 75% | +$1,384 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,484 (vs do-nothing +$76) |
| $115 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 8/10 | $7,371 | $8,440 | 67% | 75% | +$1,538 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,028 (vs do-nothing $-379) |
| $112 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 9/10 | $7,676 | $7,330 | 67% | 75% | +$1,599 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,902 (vs do-nothing $-2,506) |
| $115 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 10/10 | $7,429 | $5,668 | 66% | 74% | +$1,445 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,834 (vs do-nothing +$426) |
| $114 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 7/10 | $6,975 | $9,458 | 65% | 74% | +$1,401 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,321 (vs do-nothing $-87) |
| $114 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 9/10 | $7,007 | $6,661 | 64% | 74% | +$1,202 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,016 (vs do-nothing +$608) |
| $113 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 7/10 | $7,500 | $9,983 | 63% | 73% | +$1,419 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,566 (vs do-nothing +$158) |
| $111 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 8/10 | $7,886 | $8,954 | 63% | 72% | +$1,386 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,428 (vs do-nothing $-1,979) |
| $113 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 9/10 | $7,457 | $7,111 | 62% | 73% | +$1,206 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,331 (vs do-nothing +$923) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.35 | 7/10 | $8,025 | $10,508 | 61% | 72% | +$1,400 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,811 (vs do-nothing +$403) |
| $112 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 8/10 | $6,971 | $8,040 | 60% | 72% | +$994 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,468 (vs do-nothing +$1,061) |
| $111 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 6/10 | $7,393 | $11,290 | 59% | 71% | +$1,213 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,993 (vs do-nothing +$586) |
| $111 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 8/10 | $7,486 | $8,554 | 59% | 71% | +$1,063 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,828 (vs do-nothing +$1,421) |
| $110 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 7/10 | $8,010 | $10,493 | 58% | 70% | +$1,209 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,357 (vs do-nothing $-2,051) |
| $110 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 7/10 | $7,000 | $9,483 | 57% | 70% | +$967 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,388 (vs do-nothing +$980) |
| $110 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 6/10 | $7,907 | $11,804 | 57% | 70% | +$1,192 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,738 (vs do-nothing +$330) |
| $109 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 7/10 | $7,300 | $9,783 | 55% | 69% | +$832 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,898 (vs do-nothing +$490) |
| $109 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 5/10 | $7,071 | $12,383 | 54% | 69% | +$1,000 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,408 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $109 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 6/10 | $7,843 | $11,740 | 54% | 68% | +$919 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,278 (vs do-nothing $-2,130) |
| $108 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 7/10 | $7,850 | $10,333 | 53% | 68% | +$922 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,583 (vs do-nothing +$175) |
| $108 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 5/10 | $7,446 | $12,758 | 52% | 67% | +$869 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,083 (vs do-nothing $-325) |
| $107 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 6/10 | $6,943 | $10,840 | 51% | 67% | +$590 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,108 (vs do-nothing $-300) |
| $107 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 5/10 | $8,036 | $13,347 | 50% | 67% | +$921 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,858 (vs do-nothing $-550) |
| $108 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/10 | $7,500 | $12,811 | 49% | 66% | +$698 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,358 (vs do-nothing $-2,050) |
| $107 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 5/10 | $8,571 | $13,883 | 45% | 63% | +$614 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,108 (vs do-nothing $-2,300) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.