10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $109.58 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,079/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,806/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-2,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 10 × $112 | 71% | $7,371 | $1,304 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $120 | 17 Jul | 7d | 11.8% | 87% | 28% | $432 | $1,851 | -$5,520 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $120 11.8% OTM over spot $107.33 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.49 mid) = $432 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,851/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $120.50) 87% EV / mo $-177 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-17 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,180 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $134 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life (likely $2.69–$4.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 574 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $123 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $109.58: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $120.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $109.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,062 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $120): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $189 (+$2,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,969, the opportunity cost of earning $1,851/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $114 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.2% | 78% | 45% | $1,125 | $4,821 | -$2,550 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $114 6.2% OTM over spot $107.33 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.31 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,821/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $115.31) 82% EV / mo +$1,631 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.3] median · 97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $-17 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,357 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $130 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $3.07–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,298 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $117 (overshoots $2.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $114 is at/above CC-SS $109.58: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $115.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $109.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,062 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $114): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$552 Total Position P&L @ SS: $189 (+$2,614 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,969, the opportunity cost of earning $4,821/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $112 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.4% | 71% | 52% | $1,720 | $7,371 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $112 4.4% OTM over spot $107.33 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.79 mid) = $1,720 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,371/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $113.78) 78% EV / mo +$2,065 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.2] median · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,238 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$989 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $132 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.83/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $3.32–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,568 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $112 is at/above CC-SS $109.58: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $113.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $109.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,062 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-363 (+$2,062 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,521, the opportunity cost of earning $7,371/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $107 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.3% | 51% | 99+% | $3,600 | $15,429 | +$8,057 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $107 0.3% ITM over spot $107.33 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.70 mid) = $3,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $110.70) 63% EV / mo $-1,761 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,012 Free roll-up +$9/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $127 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.66/sh now → $2.59 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $107 is at/above CC-SS $109.58: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $110.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $109.58, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-2,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,062 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-363 (+$2,062 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $5,158 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,521, the opportunity cost of earning $15,429/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.917 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,062 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $5,158
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $117 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 10/10 | $7,393 | $5,587 | 73% | 79% | +$1,884 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,087 (vs do-nothing $-2,071) |
| $112 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 10/10 | $7,371 | $5,565 | 71% | 78% | +$2,065 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,357 (vs do-nothing $-3,801) |
| $116 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 9/10 | $7,136 | $6,637 | 71% | 77% | +$1,704 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,519 (vs do-nothing $-1,639) |
| $115 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 9/10 | $7,618 | $7,119 | 69% | 76% | +$1,672 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,744 (vs do-nothing $-1,414) |
| $111 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 9/10 | $7,753 | $7,254 | 68% | 75% | +$1,950 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,998 (vs do-nothing $-3,160) |
| $114 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 8/10 | $7,371 | $8,180 | 67% | 75% | +$1,593 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,181 (vs do-nothing $-977) |
| $114 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 10/10 | $7,286 | $5,480 | 66% | 75% | +$1,458 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,737 (vs do-nothing $-421) |
| $113 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 8/10 | $7,886 | $8,694 | 65% | 74% | +$1,574 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,421 (vs do-nothing $-737) |
| $113 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 10/10 | $7,786 | $5,980 | 64% | 74% | +$1,499 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,087 (vs do-nothing $-71) |
| $110 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.34 | 8/10 | $8,023 | $8,831 | 64% | 73% | +$1,791 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,613 (vs do-nothing $-2,545) |
| $112 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.95 | 7/10 | $7,425 | $9,540 | 63% | 73% | +$1,400 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,759 (vs do-nothing $-400) |
| $112 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 9/10 | $7,457 | $6,958 | 63% | 73% | +$1,360 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,409 (vs do-nothing +$251) |
| $111 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 7/10 | $7,875 | $9,990 | 61% | 72% | +$1,311 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,969 (vs do-nothing $-190) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $111 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.05 | 9/10 | $7,779 | $7,280 | 61% | 72% | +$1,216 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,634 (vs do-nothing +$476) |
| $110 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 6/10 | $7,200 | $10,622 | 59% | 71% | +$1,078 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,206 (vs do-nothing +$47) |
| $110 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 8/10 | $7,486 | $8,294 | 59% | 71% | +$1,213 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,981 (vs do-nothing +$823) |
| $109 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 7/10 | $8,160 | $10,275 | 58% | 67% | $-1,144 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,792 (vs do-nothing $-2,366) |
| $109 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 6/10 | $7,843 | $11,265 | 57% | 70% | +$1,192 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,158 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $109 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 8/10 | $8,000 | $8,808 | 57% | 70% | +$1,262 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,878 (vs do-nothing +$720) |
| $108 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 7/10 | $7,200 | $9,315 | 55% | 69% | +$874 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,228 (vs do-nothing +$70) |
| $108 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 5/10 | $7,179 | $11,908 | 55% | 69% | +$1,167 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,958 (vs do-nothing $-200) |
| $108 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 6/10 | $7,971 | $11,394 | 54% | 65% | $-1,120 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,758 (vs do-nothing $-2,400) |
| $107 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 7/10 | $7,800 | $9,915 | 53% | 69% | +$1,019 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,948 (vs do-nothing $-210) |
| $107 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 5/10 | $7,393 | $12,122 | 52% | 68% | +$882 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,558 (vs do-nothing $-600) |
| $107 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/10 | $7,714 | $12,444 | 51% | 63% | $-880 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,908 (vs do-nothing $-2,250) |
| $106 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 6/10 | $7,071 | $10,494 | 51% | 68% | +$849 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,648 (vs do-nothing $-510) |
| $106 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 5/10 | $7,929 | $12,658 | 50% | 67% | +$888 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,308 (vs do-nothing $-850) |
| $106 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 5/10 | $8,786 | $13,515 | 45% | 65% | +$1,054 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,658 (vs do-nothing $-2,500) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.