10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $111.63 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,577/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,778/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-4,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 10 × $112 | 72% | $8,400 | $3,182 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 9 × $120 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.5% | 92% | 15% | $378 | $1,890 | -$6,510 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $120 11.5% OTM over spot $107.62 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.43 mid) = $378 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $120) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $120.44) 93% EV / mo +$1,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $270 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,071 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $132 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.85/sh now → $2.72 mid-life (likely $2.23–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $122 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $111.63: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.42 collected) or spot ≥ $120.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $111.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,685 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $120): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$367 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23 (+$4,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,285 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,307, the opportunity cost of earning $1,890/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $114 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.9% | 79% | 42% | $1,080 | $5,400 | -$3,000 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $114 5.9% OTM over spot $107.62 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.25 mid) = $1,080 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $115.25) 83% EV / mo +$2,333 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,026 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,246 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $136 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.65/sh now → $2.58 mid-life (likely $2.69–$4.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 847 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $116 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $114 is at/above CC-SS $111.63: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.20 collected) or spot ≥ $115.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $111.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,685 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $114): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$367 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23 (+$4,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,285 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,307, the opportunity cost of earning $5,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $112 | 17 Jul | 6d | 4.1% | 72% | 41% | $1,680 | $8,400 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $112 4.1% OTM over spot $107.62 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.71 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $113.72) 78% EV / mo +$3,003 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (0.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,621 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$859 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $133 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.59/sh now → $2.54 mid-life (likely $2.88–$4.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,233 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $114 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $112 is at/above CC-SS $111.63: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.68 collected) or spot ≥ $113.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $111.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,685 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-390 (+$3,685 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,285 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,675, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $108 | 17 Jul | 6d | 0.4% | 53% | 96% | $3,150 | $15,750 | +$7,350 | $475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $108 0.4% OTM over spot $107.62 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.20 mid) = $3,150 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $111.20) 69% EV / mo +$3,415 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.1 mo) · 97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,031 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$701 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $130 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.46/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $3.41–$5.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,239 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $110 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $4 below CC-SS $111.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.79/sh (~25% of the $3.15 collected) or spot ≥ $111.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $111.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-4,075 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,685 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $108): -$475 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-865 (+$3,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,285 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,150, the opportunity cost of earning $15,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.920 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,685 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,285
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $117 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 10/10 | $8,077 | $6,299 | 73% | 79% | +$2,442 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,110 (vs do-nothing $-175) |
| $112 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.68 | 10/10 | $8,400 | $6,622 | 72% | 78% | +$3,003 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,290 (vs do-nothing $-1,995) |
| $116 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 9/10 | $7,788 | $7,464 | 71% | 78% | +$2,207 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,352 (vs do-nothing +$68) |
| $115 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 9/10 | $8,619 | $8,295 | 69% | 77% | +$2,483 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,712 (vs do-nothing +$428) |
| $111 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 8/10 | $8,000 | $9,129 | 68% | 76% | +$2,622 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,445 (vs do-nothing $-1,840) |
| $114 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 8/10 | $8,123 | $9,252 | 67% | 76% | +$2,134 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,865 (vs do-nothing +$580) |
| $114 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 10/10 | $7,800 | $6,022 | 66% | 75% | +$1,756 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,810 (vs do-nothing +$1,525) |
| $113 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 8/10 | $8,769 | $9,899 | 65% | 74% | +$2,201 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,145 (vs do-nothing +$860) |
| $110 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 7/10 | $8,120 | $10,703 | 63% | 74% | +$2,306 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,199 (vs do-nothing $-2,086) |
| $112 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 7/10 | $8,238 | $10,822 | 63% | 73% | +$1,946 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,282 (vs do-nothing +$998) |
| $112 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 9/10 | $7,897 | $7,573 | 62% | 73% | +$1,550 | -$0 | 0.0% | $5,242 (vs do-nothing +$1,958) |
| $111 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 7/10 | $8,804 | $11,387 | 61% | 72% | +$1,923 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,090 (vs do-nothing +$805) |
| $111 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.75 | 10/10 | $8,625 | $6,847 | 60% | 72% | +$1,020 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,735 (vs do-nothing +$1,450) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $110 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.90 | 6/10 | $8,169 | $12,206 | 59% | 71% | +$1,730 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,645 (vs do-nothing +$360) |
| $110 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 8/10 | $8,040 | $9,169 | 58% | 71% | +$1,487 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,405 (vs do-nothing +$1,120) |
| $109 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 6/10 | $8,130 | $12,167 | 58% | 71% | +$2,028 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,131 (vs do-nothing $-2,154) |
| $109 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 8/10 | $8,460 | $9,589 | 56% | 70% | +$1,410 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,885 (vs do-nothing +$600) |
| $109 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 6/10 | $8,723 | $12,760 | 56% | 70% | +$1,705 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,285 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $108 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 7/10 | $7,875 | $10,458 | 54% | 69% | +$1,246 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,425 (vs do-nothing +$140) |
| $108 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 5/10 | $7,788 | $13,279 | 54% | 69% | +$1,425 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,010 (vs do-nothing $-275) |
| $108 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 5/10 | $7,875 | $13,366 | 53% | 69% | +$1,708 | -$238 | 0.9% | $1,210 (vs do-nothing $-2,075) |
| $107 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 7/10 | $8,452 | $11,036 | 52% | 68% | +$1,338 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,110 (vs do-nothing $-175) |
| $107 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/10 | $8,308 | $13,799 | 52% | 68% | +$1,395 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,735 (vs do-nothing $-550) |
| $106 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.25 | 7/10 | $8,662 | $11,246 | 50% | 67% | +$1,037 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,550 (vs do-nothing $-735) |
| $106 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 5/10 | $8,942 | $14,433 | 49% | 67% | +$1,447 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,510 (vs do-nothing $-775) |
| $107 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/10 | $9,000 | $14,491 | 48% | 67% | +$1,595 | -$513 | 1.8% | $935 (vs do-nothing $-2,350) |
| $106 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/10 | $8,300 | $15,245 | 43% | 64% | +$1,260 | -$590 | 2.1% | $1,225 (vs do-nothing $-2,060) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.