FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $107.51

BE SS: $108.93  |  CC-SS: $110.94  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 03:39

NOW @ $107.51   UNDERWATER $1.42 (1.3% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $108.93  |  CC-SS: $110.94  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)
SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)
HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$47,850(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref$15,692/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,778/mo
Unrealized P&L$-3,525fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,846/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,778/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$15,692/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $27,850
ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $47,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $110.94 (probe: $111C 13d) still earns $12,692/mo (81% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$774
Hole (after banked)
$2,752
was $3,525 · 22% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$111.35 → $110.94
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 61 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 75 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.98 (+15%) · daily UBB $113.70 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 10 contracts at $112 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,846/mo); it brings $7,900/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $107/6d for $17,250/mo, but breach risk rises to 51% (+24pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 9 × $120/6d (93% survival, $1,845/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $109, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-3,560 and cuts bleed by $1,778/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 10 × $112, 73% survival, $7,900/mo (E[net] $2,976/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d10 × $11273%$7,900$2,976

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $2,976/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $112 (primary), 73% survival, breach 27%, $7,900/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $114 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 80% (breach 27% → 20%) for $2,400/mo less (30% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $114 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect NOW to stay flat-to-down near term.
NOW  spot $107.51 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge9 × $12017 Jul6d11.6%93%14%$369$1,845-$6,055$0
Sell 9 × $120 11.6% OTM over spot $107.51 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.42 mid)
= $369 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,845/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $120)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $120.42)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,215
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-11
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
8%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,017
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$137 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.75/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $2.08–$3.97)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.24/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 248 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $122 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12024 Jul 202610d left+$3.83/sh+$3,446
cycle +$3,815
[+$3,346…+$3,803] · 100% credit
69%
surv 52%
+$11,293 SAFE
cap gain +$14,818
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13231 Jul 202617d left+$0.64/sh+$576
cycle +$945
[-$107…+$938] · 72% credit
80%
surv 76%
+$18,652 SAFE
cap gain +$22,177
Max even-money escape in the band~$13331 Jul 202617d left+$0.30/sh+$272
cycle +$641
[-$451…+$638] · 59% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$19,168 SAFE
cap gain +$22,693
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$13024 Jul 202610d left+$0.11/sh+$96
cycle +$465
[-$728…+$251] · 42% credit
80%
surv 76%
+$16,535 SAFE
cap gain +$20,060
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13731 Jul 202617d left-$0.30/sh-$273
cycle +$96
[-$1,096…+$77] · 29% credit
85%
surv 82%
+$21,899 SAFE
cap gain +$25,424
budget: banked $369 debit $273 (74% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$96 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $3,729/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,845/mo
vs 50% target ($7,846/mo)-76%
vs normal income ($15,692/mo)12% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,509/mo
Downside budget
✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $110.94: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-3,182
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $120.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$119-120.42
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $120.42
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$120.00 (1.2σ)$369$7,847+$11,372+$4,644
+2.5%$123.00 (1.5σ)$-2,331$7,604+$11,129+$4,644
+5%$126.00 (1.8σ)$-5,031$7,361+$10,886+$4,644
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,148
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $120): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$431
Total Position P&L @ SS: $54 (+$3,579 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,883, the opportunity cost of earning $1,845/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield10 × $11917 Jul6d10.7%92%17%$490$2,450-$5,450$0
Sell 10 × $119 10.7% OTM over spot $107.51 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.51 mid)
= $490 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,450/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $119)
92%
Breach risk
8%
POP (stays ≤ $119.50)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,551
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median  ·  94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-59
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
10%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,139
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$136 @ 85% POP
82% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.72/sh now → $2.63 mid-life (likely $2.10–$3.91)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.14/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 297 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $121 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11924 Jul 202610d left+$3.83/sh+$3,830
cycle +$4,320
[+$3,735…+$4,218] · 100% credit
69%
surv 52%
+$11,354 SAFE
cap gain +$14,879
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13131 Jul 202617d left+$0.64/sh+$642
cycle +$1,132
[-$106…+$1,013] · 72% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$19,645 SAFE
cap gain +$23,170
Max even-money escape in the band~$13231 Jul 202617d left+$0.31/sh+$307
cycle +$797
[-$491…+$679] · 59% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$20,228 SAFE
cap gain +$23,753
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12924 Jul 202610d left+$0.11/sh+$110
cycle +$600
[-$708…+$296] · 41% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$17,275 SAFE
cap gain +$20,800
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13631 Jul 202617d left-$0.30/sh-$298
cycle +$192
[-$1,201…+$57] · 28% credit
85%
surv 82%
+$23,300 SAFE
cap gain +$26,825
budget: banked $490 debit $298 (61% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$192 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,114/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,450/mo
vs 50% target ($7,846/mo)-69%
vs normal income ($15,692/mo)16% covered
Net income (after hedge)$672/mo
Downside budget
✓ $119 is at/above CC-SS $110.94: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,540
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $119.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $117.81Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$118-119.50
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $119.50
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$119.00 (1.1σ)$490$7,524+$11,049+$4,240
+2.5%$121.97 (1.4σ)$-2,485$7,283+$10,808+$4,240
+5%$124.95 (1.7σ)$-5,460$7,042+$10,567+$4,240
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,148
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $119): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-377 (+$3,148 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,315, the opportunity cost of earning $2,450/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean10 × $11417 Jul6d6.0%80%41%$1,100$5,500-$2,400$0
Sell 10 × $114 6.0% OTM over spot $107.51 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.15 mid)
= $1,100 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,500/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $114)
80%
Breach risk
20%
POP (stays ≤ $115.14)
84%
EV / mo
+$2,394
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median  ·  94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.9 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $744
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
28%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,418
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$136 @ 89% POP
88% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.56/sh now → $2.52 mid-life (likely $2.54–$4.14)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.42/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 844 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $116 (overshoots $1.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11424 Jul 202610d left+$3.83/sh+$3,828
cycle +$4,928
[+$3,665…+$3,959] · 100% credit
69%
surv 52%
+$7,367 SAFE
cap gain +$10,892
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12631 Jul 202617d left+$0.65/sh+$648
cycle +$1,748
[-$281…+$635] · 64% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$15,665 SAFE
cap gain +$19,190
Max even-money escape in the band~$12731 Jul 202617d left+$0.32/sh+$319
cycle +$1,419
[-$672…+$304] · 43% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$16,256 SAFE
cap gain +$19,781
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12424 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$119
cycle +$1,219
[-$788…+$24] · 27% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$13,299 SAFE
cap gain +$16,824
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13631 Jul 202617d left-$1.00/sh-$995
cycle +$105
[-$2,235…-$1,061] · 1% credit
89%
surv 88%
+$23,212 SAFE
cap gain +$26,737
budget: banked $1,100 debit $995 (90% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$105 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,688/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,500/mo
vs 50% target ($7,846/mo)-30%
vs normal income ($15,692/mo)35% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,722/mo
Downside budget
✓ $114 is at/above CC-SS $110.94: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,570
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $115.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $112.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$113-115.14
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $115.14
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$114.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,100$3,539+$7,064-$150
+2.5%$116.85 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,750$3,308+$6,833-$150
+5%$119.70 (1.2σ)$-4,600$3,078+$6,603-$150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,148
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-377 (+$3,148 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,315, the opportunity cost of earning $5,500/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal10 × $11217 Jul6d4.2%73%40%$1,580$7,900$0
Sell 10 × $112 4.2% OTM over spot $107.51 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.61 mid)
= $1,580 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,900/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $112)
73%
Breach risk
27%
POP (stays ≤ $113.61)
79%
EV / mo
+$2,929
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (0.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~2.0 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,521
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
40%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$894
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$132 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.50/sh now → $2.47 mid-life (likely $2.75–$4.38)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,194 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $114 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11224 Jul 202610d left+$3.82/sh+$3,824
cycle +$5,404
[+$3,634…+$3,879] · 100% credit
69%
surv 52%
+$6,005 SAFE
cap gain +$9,530
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12231 Jul 202617d left+$1.00/sh+$997
cycle +$2,577
[-$27…+$851] · 74% credit
79%
surv 73%
+$12,818 SAFE
cap gain +$16,343
Max even-money escape in the band~$12531 Jul 202617d left+$0.32/sh+$321
cycle +$1,901
[-$834…+$132] · 32% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$14,899 SAFE
cap gain +$18,424
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12224 Jul 202610d left+$0.12/sh+$121
cycle +$1,701
[-$905…-$65] · 20% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$11,942 SAFE
cap gain +$15,467
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13224 Jul 202610d left-$1.43/sh-$1,430
cycle +$150
[-$2,876…-$1,704]
91%
surv 90%
+$19,582 SAFE
cap gain +$23,107
budget: banked $1,580 debit $1,430 (90% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$150 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,134/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$7,900/mo
vs 50% target ($7,846/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($15,692/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,122/mo
Downside budget
✓ $112 is at/above CC-SS $110.94: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,560
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.58 collected) or spot ≥ $113.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $110.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$111-113.61
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $113.61
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$112.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,580$2,181+$5,706-$1,670
+2.5%$114.80 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,220$1,955+$5,480-$1,670
+5%$117.60 (≤1σ, normal week)$-4,020$1,728+$5,253-$1,670
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,148
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-377 (+$3,148 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,315, the opportunity cost of earning $7,900/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal10 × $10717 Jul6d-0.5%49%99+%$3,450$17,250+$9,350$485
Sell 10 × $107 0.5% ITM over spot $107.51 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.55 mid)
= $3,450 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,250/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $107)
49%
Breach risk
51%
POP (stays ≤ $110.55)
67%
EV / mo
+$3,180
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$1,086
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$127 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.34/sh now → $2.36 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.09/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10724 Jul 202610d left+$3.80/sh+$3,802
cycle +$7,252
69%
surv 53%
+$3,727 SAFE
cap gain +$7,252
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11724 Jul 202610d left+$0.25/sh+$255
cycle +$3,705
81%
surv 76%
+$8,901 SAFE
cap gain +$12,426
Max even-money escape in the band~$12131 Jul 202617d left+$0.21/sh+$211
cycle +$3,661
83%
surv 79%
+$12,533 SAFE
cap gain +$16,058
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$12724 Jul 202610d left-$1.35/sh-$1,346
cycle +$2,104
91%
surv 90%
+$16,491 SAFE
cap gain +$20,016
budget: banked $3,450 debit $1,346 (39% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,104 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,055/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$17,250/mo
vs 50% target ($7,846/mo)+120%
vs normal income ($15,692/mo)110% covered
Net income (after hedge)$15,472/mo
Downside budget
⚠ $107 is $4 below CC-SS $110.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$485
… as % of IC ($27,850)1.7%
… as % of ML ($47,850)1.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,625
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $110.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$106-110.55
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $110.55
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.92 (IBKR)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$107.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,450$-75+$3,450-$2,800
+2.5%$109.67 (≤1σ, normal week)$775$-760+$2,765-$4,800
+5%$112.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,900$-977+$2,548-$4,800
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.94, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,525
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$3,148
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$485
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-862 (+$2,663 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $3,938 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,800, the opportunity cost of earning $17,250/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NOW are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.919 (IBKR)  |  Recovery@SS: +$3,148 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $3,938

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11713d24 Jul 2026$3.5510/10$8,192$6,41473%79%+$2,538-$00.0%$3,173 (vs do-nothing $-765)
$1126d17 Jul 2026$1.5810/10$7,900$6,12273%79%+$2,929-$00.0%$1,203 (vs do-nothing $-2,735)
$11613d24 Jul 2026$3.859/10$7,996$7,66071%78%+$2,397-$00.0%$3,519 (vs do-nothing $-418)
$11513d24 Jul 2026$4.209/10$8,723$8,38769%77%+$2,570-$00.0%$3,834 (vs do-nothing $-103)
$1116d17 Jul 2026$1.869/10$8,370$8,03469%77%+$2,766-$00.0%$1,728 (vs do-nothing $-2,209)
$11413d24 Jul 2026$4.458/10$8,215$9,32267%76%+$2,212-$00.0%$4,046 (vs do-nothing +$108)
$11313d24 Jul 2026$4.758/10$8,769$9,87565%75%+$2,189-$00.0%$4,286 (vs do-nothing +$348)
$11320d31 Jul 2026$5.7010/10$8,550$6,77264%74%+$2,013-$00.0%$5,323 (vs do-nothing +$1,385)
$1106d17 Jul 2026$2.228/10$8,880$9,98664%74%+$2,689-$00.0%$1,514 (vs do-nothing $-2,424)
$11213d24 Jul 2026$5.157/10$8,319$10,86864%75%+$2,795-$00.0%$4,522 (vs do-nothing +$585)
$11220d31 Jul 2026$6.059/10$8,167$7,83162%73%+$1,819-$00.0%$5,499 (vs do-nothing +$1,562)
$11113d24 Jul 2026$5.507/10$8,885$11,43362%74%+$2,778-$00.0%$4,767 (vs do-nothing +$830)
$11120d31 Jul 2026$6.309/10$8,505$8,16961%72%+$1,662-$00.0%$5,724 (vs do-nothing +$1,787)
Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11013d24 Jul 2026$5.906/10$8,169$12,16059%73%+$2,398-$00.0%$4,328 (vs do-nothing +$390)
$1096d17 Jul 2026$2.577/10$8,995$11,54459%72%+$2,319-$00.0%$1,362 (vs do-nothing $-2,576)
$11020d31 Jul 2026$6.858/10$8,220$9,32659%71%+$1,670-$00.0%$5,218 (vs do-nothing +$1,280)
$10913d24 Jul 2026$6.256/10$8,654$12,64557%71%+$2,306-$00.0%$3,938 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$10920d31 Jul 2026$7.258/10$8,700$9,80657%70%+$1,655-$00.0%$4,738 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$10820d31 Jul 2026$7.707/10$8,085$10,63455%69%+$1,462-$00.0%$4,253 (vs do-nothing +$315)
$10813d24 Jul 2026$6.805/10$7,846$13,27954%70%+$2,042-$00.0%$3,713 (vs do-nothing $-225)
$1086d17 Jul 2026$3.006/10$9,000$12,99154%69%+$2,015-$00.0%$1,388 (vs do-nothing $-2,550)
$10720d31 Jul 2026$8.107/10$8,505$11,05453%68%+$1,398-$00.0%$3,833 (vs do-nothing $-105)
$10713d24 Jul 2026$7.305/10$8,423$13,85652%68%+$1,547-$00.0%$3,463 (vs do-nothing $-475)
$10620d31 Jul 2026$8.557/10$8,978$11,52650%67%+$1,360-$00.0%$3,448 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$10613d24 Jul 2026$7.755/10$8,942$14,37550%67%+$1,486-$00.0%$3,188 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$1076d17 Jul 2026$3.455/10$8,625$14,05849%67%+$1,590-$2430.9%$1,538 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$1066d17 Jul 2026$4.004/10$8,000$14,87543%65%+$1,269-$3741.3%$1,838 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 03:39