FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $107.36

BE SS: $108.93  |  CC-SS: $110.37  |  10 contracts (1,000 sh) |  ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GENERATED2026-07-11 13:38

NOW @ $107.36   UNDERWATER $1.57 (1.4% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh)  |  BE SS: $108.93  |  CC-SS: $110.37  |  IV: HIGH  |  Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)
SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)
HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss$47,850(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref$16,015/mo95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost$1,778/mo
Unrealized P&L$-3,130fortress legs from IBKR
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,008/mo
HEDGE COVER
$1,778/mo
NORMAL INCOME
$16,015/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $27,850
ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $47,850
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $110.37 (probe: $110C 13d) still earns $13,731/mo (86% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-02
$774
Hole (after banked)
$2,357
was $3,130 · 25% earned back
Cycles closed
1
Credit in flight
$0
CC-SS ratchet
$110.84 → $110.37
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 61 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist rising
DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 57 · %B 74 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $124.00 (+15%) · daily UBB $113.71 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
INTERPRETATION
Primary: 10 contracts at $112 / 6d. This is the safest strike (survival 74%, breach 26%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($8,008/mo); it brings $8,050/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.
More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 10 × $107/6d for $17,750/mo, but breach risk rises to 51% (+24pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.
More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 9 × $120/6d (93% survival, $1,800/mo).
Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $0 (0% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $109, recoverable in 0.0 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 10 contracts realizes $-3,175 and cuts bleed by $1,778/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 (6d) · sell 10 × $112, 74% survival, $8,050/mo (E[net] $3,129/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.
TrackExpirySellSurvivalIncome/moE[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆17 Jul 2026 · 6d10 × $11274%$8,050$3,129

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 17 Jul 2026 · 6d · E[net] $3,129/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 10 × $112 (primary), 74% survival, breach 26%, $8,050/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $114 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 26% → 19%) for $2,350/mo less (29% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $114 rung, unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect NOW to stay flat-to-down near term.
NOW  spot $107.36 · click a rung to expand its decision panel
RungSellExpiryDTEOTMSurvivalTouch oddsPer cycleIncome/moΔ vs pickCap give-up
cover hedge9 × $12017 Jul6d11.8%93%13%$360$1,800-$6,250$0
Sell 9 × $120 11.8% OTM over spot $107.36 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.41 mid)
= $360 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,800/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $120)
93%
Breach risk
7%
POP (stays ≤ $120.41)
94%
EV / mo
+$1,238
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.1 mo [0.1-0.4] median  ·  91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.5 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-10
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
7%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,122
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$133 @ 83% POP
80% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.01–$4.09)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 223 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $122 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (9 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$12024 Jul 202610d left+$3.85/sh+$3,461
cycle +$3,821
[+$3,198…+$3,794] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
+$11,607 SAFE
cap gain +$14,737
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13331 Jul 202617d left+$0.58/sh+$520
cycle +$880
[-$275…+$949] · 69% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$18,778 SAFE
cap gain +$21,908
Max even-money escape in the band~$13431 Jul 202617d left+$0.19/sh+$175
cycle +$535
[-$679…+$613] · 54% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$19,233 SAFE
cap gain +$22,363
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$13024 Jul 202610d left+$0.24/sh+$213
cycle +$573
[-$625…+$425] · 53% credit
80%
surv 74%
+$16,071 SAFE
cap gain +$19,201
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13324 Jul 202610d left-$0.37/sh-$337
cycle +$23
[-$1,287…-$128] · 17% credit
83%
surv 80%
+$17,921 SAFE
cap gain +$21,051
budget: banked $360 debit $337 (94% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$23 cash · rolled 9 ct earn ≈ $6,435/mo while parked; 1 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$1,800/mo
vs 50% target ($8,008/mo)-78%
vs normal income ($16,015/mo)11% covered
Net income (after hedge)$1,499/mo
Downside budget
✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $110.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (9 ct)$-2,822
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $120.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$119-120.41
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $120.41
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$120.00 (1.2σ)$360$8,146+$11,276+$4,500
+2.5%$123.00 (1.5σ)$-2,340$7,846+$10,976+$4,500
+5%$126.00 (1.8σ)$-5,040$7,546+$10,676+$4,500
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,130
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,712
− CC assignment net of premium (9 × $120): -$0
+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $109): +$503
Total Position P&L @ SS: $84 (+$3,214 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,609 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,524, the opportunity cost of earning $1,800/mo FIGHT income now)
🛡 safe yield10 × $11817 Jul6d9.9%91%19%$550$2,750-$5,300$0
Sell 10 × $118 9.9% OTM over spot $107.36 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.57 mid)
= $550 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $118)
91%
Breach risk
9%
POP (stays ≤ $118.58)
92%
EV / mo
+$1,707
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.6] median  ·  90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~0.8 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $-59
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
11%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$2,162
Free roll-up
+$11/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$136 @ 85% POP
83% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.84/sh now → $2.71 mid-life (likely $2.30–$4.30)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $120 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11824 Jul 202610d left+$3.84/sh+$3,843
cycle +$4,393
[+$3,513…+$4,087] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
+$10,839 SAFE
cap gain +$13,969
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$13031 Jul 202617d left+$0.69/sh+$691
cycle +$1,241
[-$281…+$945] · 67% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$18,163 SAFE
cap gain +$21,293
Max even-money escape in the band~$13231 Jul 202617d left+$0.20/sh+$204
cycle +$754
[-$865…+$465] · 41% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$19,476 SAFE
cap gain +$22,606
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12924 Jul 202610d left+$0.00/sh+$3
cycle +$553
[-$1,081…+$114] · 27% credit
81%
surv 76%
+$16,575 SAFE
cap gain +$19,705
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13631 Jul 202617d left-$0.40/sh-$399
cycle +$151
[-$1,573…-$133] · 23% credit
85%
surv 83%
+$22,473 SAFE
cap gain +$25,603
budget: banked $550 debit $399 (72% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$151 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,083/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$2,750/mo
vs 50% target ($8,008/mo)-66%
vs normal income ($16,015/mo)17% covered
Net income (after hedge)$972/mo
Downside budget
✓ $118 is at/above CC-SS $110.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,155
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $118.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $116.82Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$117-118.58
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $118.58
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$118.00 (1.0σ)$550$6,996+$10,126+$3,150
+2.5%$120.95 (1.3σ)$-2,400$6,701+$9,831+$3,150
+5%$123.90 (1.6σ)$-5,350$6,406+$9,536+$3,150
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,130
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,712
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $118): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-418 (+$2,712 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,609 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,027, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now)
33% normal ← lean10 × $11417 Jul6d6.2%81%39%$1,140$5,700-$2,350$0
Sell 10 × $114 6.2% OTM over spot $107.36 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.17 mid)
= $1,140 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,700/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $114)
81%
Breach risk
19%
POP (stays ≤ $115.17)
85%
EV / mo
+$2,828
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (0.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.4 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $725
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
26%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$1,480
Free roll-up
+$11/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$137 @ 89% POP
88% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.71/sh now → $2.62 mid-life (likely $2.53–$4.35)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.48/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 794 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $116 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11424 Jul 202610d left+$3.83/sh+$3,831
cycle +$4,971
[+$3,470…+$3,934] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
+$7,817 SAFE
cap gain +$10,947
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12631 Jul 202617d left+$0.70/sh+$698
cycle +$1,838
[-$318…+$748] · 64% credit
80%
surv 75%
+$15,160 SAFE
cap gain +$18,290
Max even-money escape in the band~$12831 Jul 202617d left+$0.22/sh+$217
cycle +$1,357
[-$885…+$248] · 36% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$16,479 SAFE
cap gain +$19,609
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12524 Jul 202610d left+$0.01/sh+$13
cycle +$1,153
[-$1,044…-$61] · 21% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$13,575 SAFE
cap gain +$16,705
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13731 Jul 202617d left-$1.07/sh-$1,072
cycle +$68
[-$2,425…-$1,077] · 1% credit
89%
surv 88%
+$23,290 SAFE
cap gain +$26,420
budget: banked $1,140 debit $1,072 (94% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$68 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,732/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$5,700/mo
vs 50% target ($8,008/mo)-29%
vs normal income ($16,015/mo)36% covered
Net income (after hedge)$3,922/mo
Downside budget
✓ $114 is at/above CC-SS $110.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,160
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $115.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $112.86Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$113-115.17
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $115.17
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$114.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,140$3,986+$7,116-$260
+2.5%$116.85 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,710$3,701+$6,831-$260
+5%$119.70 (1.2σ)$-4,560$3,416+$6,546-$260
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,130
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,712
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $114): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-418 (+$2,712 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,609 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,027, the opportunity cost of earning $5,700/mo FIGHT income now)
🎯 50% normal10 × $11217 Jul6d4.3%74%38%$1,610$8,050$0
Sell 10 × $112 4.3% OTM over spot $107.36 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.66 mid)
= $1,610 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,050/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $112)
74%
Breach risk
26%
POP (stays ≤ $113.66)
80%
EV / mo
+$3,399
📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo)   whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (0.1 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung  ·  97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without)  ·  ~1.7 challenges expected  ·  median CC cash $1,491
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
38%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
-$964
Free roll-up
+$11/wk
Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)
$133 @ 91% POP
90% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.64/sh now → $2.57 mid-life (likely $2.80–$4.57)≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.96/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 1,147 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $114 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$11224 Jul 202610d left+$3.82/sh+$3,823
cycle +$5,433
[+$3,426…+$3,815] · 100% credit
68%
surv 53%
+$6,479 SAFE
cap gain +$9,609
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)~$12331 Jul 202617d left+$0.90/sh+$896
cycle +$2,506
[-$217…+$778] · 68% credit
79%
surv 74%
+$13,128 SAFE
cap gain +$16,258
Max even-money escape in the band~$12631 Jul 202617d left+$0.22/sh+$220
cycle +$1,830
[-$1,018…+$77] · 28% credit
82%
surv 78%
+$15,152 SAFE
cap gain +$18,282
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$12324 Jul 202610d left+$0.02/sh+$16
cycle +$1,626
[-$1,089…-$154] · 16% credit
81%
surv 77%
+$12,248 SAFE
cap gain +$15,378
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13324 Jul 202610d left-$1.56/sh-$1,560
cycle +$50
[-$3,093…-$1,802]
91%
surv 90%
+$19,672 SAFE
cap gain +$22,802
budget: banked $1,610 debit $1,560 (97% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$50 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,042/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$8,050/mo
vs 50% target ($8,008/mo)+1%
vs normal income ($16,015/mo)50% covered
Net income (after hedge)$6,272/mo
Downside budget
✓ $112 is at/above CC-SS $110.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,175
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.61 collected) or spot ≥ $113.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $110.88Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$111-113.66
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $113.66
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$112.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$1,610$2,656+$5,786-$1,790
+2.5%$114.80 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,190$2,376+$5,506-$1,790
+5%$117.60 (≤1σ, normal week)$-3,990$2,096+$5,226-$1,790
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,130
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,712
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $112): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-418 (+$2,712 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,609 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,027, the opportunity cost of earning $8,050/mo FIGHT income now)
100% normal10 × $10717 Jul6d-0.3%49%99+%$3,550$17,750+$9,700$0
Sell 10 × $107 0.3% ITM over spot $107.36 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.62 mid)
= $3,550 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,750/mo projected
Survival (stays ≤ $107)
49%
Breach risk
51%
POP (stays ≤ $110.62)
68%
EV / mo
+$4,276
🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)
Challenge odds (touch by expiry)
100%
Flat exit net (mid-life)
+$1,091
Free roll-up
+$10/wk
Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)
$130 @ 90% POP
89% survival
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $3.48/sh now → $2.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry  |  you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.09/sh  |  roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
MoveNew strike ≈New expiryTenorEst netTotal (10 ct)POP / surv
of new CC
If rolled & exited
total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)~$10724 Jul 202610d left+$3.79/sh+$3,792
cycle +$7,342
68%
surv 53%
+$4,212 SAFE
cap gain +$7,342
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)~$11724 Jul 202610d left+$0.15/sh+$155
cycle +$3,705
81%
surv 76%
+$9,251 SAFE
cap gain +$12,381
Max even-money escape in the band~$12131 Jul 202617d left+$0.14/sh+$145
cycle +$3,695
83%
surv 79%
+$12,841 SAFE
cap gain +$15,971
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)~$13031 Jul 202617d left-$1.07/sh-$1,071
cycle +$2,479
90%
surv 89%
+$19,725 SAFE
cap gain +$22,855
budget: banked $3,550 debit $1,071 (30% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,479 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,449/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress
Income coverage
Gross FIGHT income$17,750/mo
vs 50% target ($8,008/mo)+122%
vs normal income ($16,015/mo)111% covered
Net income (after hedge)$15,972/mo
Downside budget
✓ $107 is at/above CC-SS $110.37: assignment is break-even or better.
Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)-$0
… as % of IC ($27,850)0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,850)0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)0.0 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)$-3,205
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook
The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.89/sh (~25% of the $3.55 collected) or spot ≥ $110.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.71 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
Spot \ Time≥ 4d left3d left≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $105.93Do nothing. Theta wins.Do nothing.Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike
$106-110.62
Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven
≥ $110.62
Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.Close today, or be assigned.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic  ·  fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
ScenarioSpotCC leg netPosition totalvs todayvs do-nothing
at strike$107.00 (≤1σ, normal week)$3,550$420+$3,550-$2,850
+2.5%$109.67 (≤1σ, normal week)$875$-172+$2,959-$4,850
+5%$112.35 (≤1σ, normal week)$-1,800$-439+$2,691-$4,850
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $110.37, where you are whole again, by expiry)
Starting unrealized P&L: $-3,130
+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$2,712
− CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$0
Total Position P&L @ SS: $-418 (+$2,712 vs today)
Do-nothing baseline at SS: $4,609 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,027, the opportunity cost of earning $17,750/mo FIGHT income now)
A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on NOW are the tiebreakers.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (28 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback)  |  Recovery@SS: +$2,712 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS)  |  Do-nothing @ SS: $4,609

StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$1126d17 Jul 2026$1.6110/10$8,050$6,27274%80%+$3,399-$00.0%$1,192 (vs do-nothing $-3,417)
$11713d24 Jul 2026$3.5010/10$8,077$6,29973%79%+$2,569-$00.0%$3,082 (vs do-nothing $-1,527)
$11613d24 Jul 2026$3.8010/10$8,769$6,99172%78%+$2,703-$00.0%$3,382 (vs do-nothing $-1,227)
$11513d24 Jul 2026$4.109/10$8,515$8,21470%77%+$2,510-$00.0%$3,774 (vs do-nothing $-834)
$1116d17 Jul 2026$1.919/10$8,595$8,29470%78%+$3,323-$00.0%$1,803 (vs do-nothing $-2,805)
$11413d24 Jul 2026$4.458/10$8,215$9,39168%76%+$2,351-$00.0%$4,147 (vs do-nothing $-462)
$11420d31 Jul 2026$5.3510/10$8,025$6,24766%75%+$2,075-$00.0%$4,932 (vs do-nothing +$323)
$11313d24 Jul 2026$4.808/10$8,862$10,03766%75%+$2,427-$00.0%$4,427 (vs do-nothing $-182)
$1106d17 Jul 2026$2.238/10$8,920$10,09565%75%+$3,067-$00.0%$2,073 (vs do-nothing $-2,536)
$11320d31 Jul 2026$5.7510/10$8,625$6,84765%75%+$2,193-$00.0%$5,332 (vs do-nothing +$723)
$11213d24 Jul 2026$5.157/10$8,319$10,97264%74%+$2,152-$00.0%$4,695 (vs do-nothing +$86)
$11220d31 Jul 2026$5.959/10$8,033$7,73163%73%+$1,781-$00.0%$5,439 (vs do-nothing +$831)
$11113d24 Jul 2026$5.557/10$8,965$11,61861%73%+$2,219-$00.0%$4,975 (vs do-nothing +$366)
Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
StrikeDTEExpiryBidSellIncome/moNet/moSurvivalPOP (mid)EV/moCap Give-up @ CC-SS%ICTotal P&L @ SS
$11120d31 Jul 2026$5.8510/10$8,775$6,99761%72%+$1,281-$00.0%$5,432 (vs do-nothing +$823)
$1096d17 Jul 2026$2.667/10$9,310$11,96260%73%+$2,970-$00.0%$1,991 (vs do-nothing $-2,618)
$11013d24 Jul 2026$5.956/10$8,238$12,36859%72%+$1,923-$00.0%$4,939 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$11020d31 Jul 2026$6.908/10$8,280$9,45559%72%+$1,820-$00.0%$5,809 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$10913d24 Jul 2026$6.406/10$8,862$12,99157%71%+$1,975-$00.0%$4,609 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$10920d31 Jul 2026$7.308/10$8,760$9,93557%71%+$1,806-$00.0%$5,329 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$10820d31 Jul 2026$7.807/10$8,190$10,84255%70%+$1,648-$00.0%$4,889 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$1086d17 Jul 2026$3.056/10$9,150$13,27955%70%+$2,488-$00.0%$1,999 (vs do-nothing $-2,610)
$10813d24 Jul 2026$6.856/10$9,485$13,61455%70%+$1,989-$00.0%$4,279 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$10720d31 Jul 2026$8.157/10$8,558$11,21053%69%+$1,532-$00.0%$4,434 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$10713d24 Jul 2026$7.305/10$8,423$14,02952%69%+$1,636-$00.0%$4,059 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$10620d31 Jul 2026$8.607/10$9,030$11,68251%68%+$1,494-$00.0%$4,049 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$10613d24 Jul 2026$7.805/10$9,000$14,60650%68%+$1,639-$00.0%$3,809 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$1076d17 Jul 2026$3.555/10$8,875$14,48149%68%+$2,138-$00.0%$2,184 (vs do-nothing $-2,425)
$1066d17 Jul 2026$4.104/10$8,200$15,28344%66%+$1,728-$1090.4%$2,489 (vs do-nothing $-2,120)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1  |  2026-07-11 13:38