FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $107.65

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.15 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $107.65 UNDERWATER $1.28 (1.2% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$18,682/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,816/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-4,540	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,341/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,816/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$18,682/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.15 (probe: $112C 11d) still earns $14,045/mo (75% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$774

Hole (after banked)

$3,766

was $4,540 · 17% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$112.58 → $112.15

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.15 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $115 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$4,100

Income / mo

$11,182

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.85/sh now → $5.55 mid-life (likely $6.57–$9.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,539 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $118 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.25/sh	+$1,255 cycle +$5,355 [+$370…+$1,154] · 95% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$115	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.12/sh	+$1,122 cycle +$5,222 [+$233…+$1,006] · 89% credit	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$210 cycle +$4,310 [-$820…+$7] · 25% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$210 cycle +$4,310 [-$820…+$7] · 25% credit	72% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.85/sh	-$3,854 cycle +$246 [-$6,145…-$4,535]	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $4,100 debit $3,854 (94% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$246 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,239/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $113 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,270

Income / mo

$9,525

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $2.66–$4.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 789 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $115 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$3.94/sh	+$3,945 cycle +$5,215 [+$3,300…+$3,980] · 99% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$124	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.88/sh	+$881 cycle +$2,151 [-$458…+$821] · 64% credit	80% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$126	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.39/sh	+$393 cycle +$1,663 [-$1,035…+$321] · 39% credit	82% surv 78%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.21/sh	+$212 cycle +$1,482 [-$1,073…+$119] · 30% credit	82% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	24 Jul 2026	9d left	-$1.20/sh	-$1,196 cycle +$74 [-$2,813…-$1,320]	90% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,270 debit $1,196 (94% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,516/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $129 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $129)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,390

Income / mo

$3,791

Buyback gross: $8.80/sh now → $6.23 mid-life (likely $5.05–$8.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $129 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $132 (overshoots $3.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$129	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.87/sh	+$871 cycle +$2,261 [+$582…+$2,186] · 94% credit	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$235 cycle +$1,625 [-$226…+$1,413] · 67% credit	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.24/sh	+$235 cycle +$1,625 [-$226…+$1,413] · 67% credit	70% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.34/sh	-$1,336 cycle +$54 [-$2,143…-$450] · 18% credit	75% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,390 debit $1,336 (96% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,223/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (28 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 28 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.921 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,145 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,854

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.27	10/10	$9,525	$7,709	81%	86%	+$6,025	-$0	0.0%	$875 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.61	8/10	$9,660	$11,335	76%	83%	+$5,846	-$0	0.0%	$1,422 (vs do-nothing $-1,432)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$9,545	$7,730	74%	80%	+$3,877	-$0	0.0%	$3,105 (vs do-nothing +$250)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	10/10	$10,364	$8,548	72%	79%	+$4,056	-$0	0.0%	$3,405 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.91	7/10	$10,028	$13,448	71%	81%	+$5,541	-$0	0.0%	$1,111 (vs do-nothing $-1,743)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	9/10	$10,064	$9,993	70%	78%	+$3,755	-$0	0.0%	$3,620 (vs do-nothing +$765)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	8/10	$9,709	$11,384	68%	77%	+$3,489	-$0	0.0%	$3,815 (vs do-nothing +$960)
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.23	6/10	$10,035	$15,201	66%	78%	+$4,939	-$0	0.0%	$952 (vs do-nothing $-1,902)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	8/10	$10,473	$12,148	66%	76%	+$3,585	-$0	0.0%	$4,095 (vs do-nothing +$1,240)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	10/10	$9,583	$7,768	64%	75%	+$2,788	-$0	0.0%	$5,355 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	7/10	$9,832	$13,252	64%	75%	+$3,171	-$0	0.0%	$4,079 (vs do-nothing +$1,225)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	10/10	$9,917	$8,101	62%	74%	+$2,546	-$0	0.0%	$5,404 (vs do-nothing +$2,550)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.55	7/10	$10,595	$14,016	61%	74%	+$3,248	-$0	0.0%	$3,659 (vs do-nothing +$805)

Show 15 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	10/10	$9,750	$7,934	60%	72%	+$1,765	-$0	0.0%	$4,304 (vs do-nothing +$1,450)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.66	5/10	$9,975	$16,886	60%	75%	+$4,434	-$245	0.9%	$984 (vs do-nothing $-1,870)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	6/10	$9,736	$14,902	59%	72%	+$2,803	-$0	0.0%	$3,184 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	9/10	$10,350	$10,280	58%	72%	+$2,574	-$0	0.0%	$4,204 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	6/10	$10,473	$15,639	56%	71%	+$2,855	-$0	0.0%	$2,854 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	8/10	$9,733	$11,408	56%	71%	+$2,264	-$0	0.0%	$3,574 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.80	8/10	$10,400	$12,075	54%	70%	+$2,340	-$0	0.0%	$3,174 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	5/10	$9,341	$16,252	54%	70%	+$2,382	-$0	0.0%	$2,579 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	5/10	$11,438	$18,349	53%	72%	+$4,325	-$550	2.0%	$679 (vs do-nothing $-2,175)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.15	7/10	$9,508	$12,929	52%	69%	+$1,908	-$0	0.0%	$2,679 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	5/10	$9,955	$16,866	51%	69%	+$2,342	-$0	0.0%	$2,304 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	7/10	$10,033	$13,454	50%	68%	+$1,854	-$0	0.0%	$2,294 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	5/10	$10,636	$17,548	49%	68%	+$2,327	-$0	0.0%	$2,054 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/10	$10,650	$19,307	47%	70%	+$3,467	-$640	2.3%	$914 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)
$106	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/10	$12,300	$20,957	40%	67%	+$3,384	-$820	2.9%	$734 (vs do-nothing $-2,120)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:27