FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $108.78

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $114.05 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $108.78 UNDERWATER $0.15 (0.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $114.05 (banked floor $113.24) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$17,455/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,816/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-4,540	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,727/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,816/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$17,455/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $114.05 (probe: $114C 11d) still earns $12,136/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$774

Hole (after banked)

$3,766

was $4,540 · 17% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$114.05 → $113.24

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 59 · %B 79 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $124.00 (+14%) · daily UBB $113.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $114.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $116 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$3,800

Income / mo

$10,364

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.21/sh now → $5.10 mid-life (likely $6.03–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,584 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $119 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.26/sh	+$1,259 cycle +$5,059 [+$452…+$1,263] · 97% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$737 cycle +$4,537 [-$133…+$644] · 62% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$117	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$737 cycle +$4,537 [-$133…+$644] · 62% credit	69% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.36/sh	-$3,364 cycle +$436 [-$5,406…-$3,984]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $3,800 debit $3,364 (89% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$436 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,341/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$960

Income / mo

$7,200

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.00/sh now → $2.12 mid-life (likely $2.20–$3.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 615 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $117 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$3.92/sh	+$3,920 cycle +$4,880 [+$3,505…+$4,031] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$127	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.85/sh	+$852 cycle +$1,812 [-$206…+$829] · 68% credit	81% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.25/sh	+$246 cycle +$1,206 [-$932…+$199] · 37% credit	85% surv 82%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$127	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.10/sh	+$98 cycle +$1,058 [-$1,047…-$12] · 25% credit	84% surv 80%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$141	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.93/sh	-$927 cycle +$33 [-$2,327…-$1,005]	92% surv 91%
budget: banked $960 debit $927 (97% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $2,245/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $130 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $130)

90%

Touch odds

22%

Per cycle

$1,310

Income / mo

$3,573

Buyback gross: $8.08/sh now → $5.72 mid-life (likely $4.95–$8.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 414 simulated challenges: the $130 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $133 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.92/sh	+$917 cycle +$2,227 [+$580…+$1,921] · 96% credit	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$131	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$394 cycle +$1,704 [-$54…+$1,301] · 73% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.39/sh	+$394 cycle +$1,704 [-$54…+$1,301] · 73% credit	69% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$135	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.16/sh	-$1,161 cycle +$149 [-$1,966…-$476] · 15% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,310 debit $1,161 (89% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$149 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $11,386/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.921 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,852 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,664

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.27	10/10	$9,525	$7,709	75%	81%	+$4,354	-$0	0.0%	$534 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	10/10	$8,864	$7,048	74%	80%	+$2,969	-$0	0.0%	$3,562 (vs do-nothing +$1,898)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$9,545	$7,730	72%	78%	+$2,999	-$0	0.0%	$3,812 (vs do-nothing +$2,148)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.61	8/10	$9,660	$11,335	70%	79%	+$4,156	-$350	1.3%	$232 (vs do-nothing $-1,432)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	9/10	$9,327	$9,257	70%	77%	+$2,794	-$0	0.0%	$3,867 (vs do-nothing +$2,203)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	8/10	$8,945	$10,621	68%	76%	+$2,516	-$0	0.0%	$3,862 (vs do-nothing +$2,198)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	8/10	$9,709	$11,384	65%	75%	+$2,604	-$0	0.0%	$4,104 (vs do-nothing +$2,440)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.91	7/10	$10,028	$13,448	65%	75%	+$3,704	-$796	2.9%	$-79 (vs do-nothing $-1,743)
$114	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	10/10	$8,917	$7,101	64%	74%	+$1,929	-$0	0.0%	$5,614 (vs do-nothing +$3,950)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	7/10	$9,164	$12,584	63%	74%	+$2,304	-$0	0.0%	$3,344 (vs do-nothing +$1,680)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	10/10	$9,583	$7,768	62%	73%	+$2,014	-$0	0.0%	$5,014 (vs do-nothing +$3,350)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	7/10	$9,832	$13,252	61%	72%	+$2,279	-$0	0.0%	$2,889 (vs do-nothing +$1,225)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	9/10	$8,925	$8,855	60%	72%	+$1,554	-$0	0.0%	$3,959 (vs do-nothing +$2,295)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.23	6/10	$10,035	$15,201	59%	72%	+$3,022	-$1,091	3.9%	$-238 (vs do-nothing $-1,902)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.55	6/10	$9,082	$14,248	58%	71%	+$1,966	-$0	0.0%	$2,354 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	9/10	$8,775	$8,705	58%	70%	+$810	-$0	0.0%	$2,969 (vs do-nothing +$1,305)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	8/10	$9,200	$10,875	56%	70%	+$1,559	-$0	0.0%	$2,864 (vs do-nothing +$1,200)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	6/10	$9,736	$14,902	56%	70%	+$1,931	-$0	0.0%	$1,994 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	8/10	$9,733	$11,408	54%	69%	+$1,497	-$0	0.0%	$2,384 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	5/10	$8,727	$15,639	53%	69%	+$1,608	-$0	0.0%	$1,664 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.66	5/10	$9,975	$16,886	53%	69%	+$2,528	-$1,194	4.3%	$-206 (vs do-nothing $-1,870)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.80	7/10	$9,100	$12,521	52%	68%	+$1,343	-$0	0.0%	$1,944 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	5/10	$9,341	$16,252	51%	68%	+$1,564	-$0	0.0%	$1,389 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.15	7/10	$9,508	$12,929	50%	67%	+$1,170	-$0	0.0%	$1,489 (vs do-nothing $-175)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	5/10	$9,955	$16,866	48%	66%	+$1,478	-$0	0.0%	$1,114 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	4/10	$9,150	$17,807	46%	66%	+$1,677	-$1,199	4.3%	$-76 (vs do-nothing $-1,740)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/10	$10,650	$19,307	40%	63%	+$1,426	-$1,399	5.0%	$-276 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:31