FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $108.58

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.23 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $108.58 UNDERWATER $0.35 (0.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.23 (banked floor $111.41) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$17,727/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$1,753/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,864/mo

HEDGE COVER
$1,753/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$17,727/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.23 (probe: $112C 11d) still earns $14,455/mo (82% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$774

Hole (after banked)

$2,227

was $3,000 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$112.23 → $111.41

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 48 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 58 · %B 76 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $124.10 (+14%) · daily UBB $114.66 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.23 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $117 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

69%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$4,500

Income / mo

$7,500

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$990

Income / mo

$7,425

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.47/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 758 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $117 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$3.79/sh	+$3,795 cycle +$4,785 [+$3,346…+$3,814] · 100% credit	67% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.78/sh	+$777 cycle +$1,767 [-$326…+$701] · 64% credit	80% surv 76%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.07/sh	+$69 cycle +$1,059 [-$1,126…-$56] · 22% credit	81% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.76/sh	-$763 cycle +$227 [-$2,204…-$894] · 3% credit	88% surv 87%
budget: banked $990 debit $763 (77% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$227 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,165/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $129 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $129)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,440

Income / mo

$3,927

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.50/sh now → $6.01 mid-life (likely $5.43–$8.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 556 simulated challenges: the $129 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $133 (overshoots $3.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$129	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.81/sh	+$807 cycle +$2,247 [+$387…+$1,651] · 90% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$129	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.58/sh	+$576 cycle +$2,016 [+$112…+$1,387] · 79% credit	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.17/sh	+$166 cycle +$1,606 [-$385…+$956] · 58% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.17/sh	+$166 cycle +$1,606 [-$385…+$956] · 58% credit	69% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.43/sh	-$1,428 cycle +$12 [-$2,332…-$904] · 10% credit	73% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,440 debit $1,428 (99% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$12 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $11,463/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.929 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,393 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,663

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.38	9/10	$9,315	$9,335	73%	79%	+$2,706	-$0	0.0%	$1,962 (vs do-nothing $-1,702)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	10/10	$9,136	$7,384	73%	78%	+$2,177	-$0	0.0%	$3,743 (vs do-nothing +$79)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	9/10	$8,959	$8,979	71%	77%	+$2,081	-$0	0.0%	$4,005 (vs do-nothing +$341)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	9/10	$9,695	$9,716	69%	76%	+$2,151	-$0	0.0%	$4,275 (vs do-nothing +$611)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.64	8/10	$9,840	$11,633	69%	76%	+$2,452	-$0	0.0%	$2,175 (vs do-nothing $-1,488)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	8/10	$9,273	$11,066	67%	75%	+$1,925	-$0	0.0%	$4,447 (vs do-nothing +$783)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	8/10	$9,709	$11,502	65%	74%	+$1,669	-$0	0.0%	$4,607 (vs do-nothing +$943)
$114	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	10/10	$8,917	$7,164	64%	73%	+$1,474	-$0	0.0%	$5,743 (vs do-nothing +$2,079)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.97	6/10	$8,865	$14,203	64%	73%	+$1,959	-$0	0.0%	$2,145 (vs do-nothing $-1,518)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	7/10	$9,450	$13,016	63%	73%	+$1,762	-$0	0.0%	$4,839 (vs do-nothing +$1,175)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	10/10	$9,750	$7,997	62%	73%	+$1,711	-$0	0.0%	$6,243 (vs do-nothing +$2,579)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.30	7/10	$10,118	$13,684	61%	72%	+$1,729	-$0	0.0%	$4,923 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	9/10	$9,300	$9,320	60%	72%	+$1,496	-$0	0.0%	$6,093 (vs do-nothing +$2,430)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.36	6/10	$10,620	$15,958	59%	71%	+$2,093	-$0	0.0%	$1,779 (vs do-nothing $-1,884)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	6/10	$9,245	$14,584	59%	71%	+$1,410	-$0	0.0%	$4,353 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	9/10	$9,900	$9,920	58%	71%	+$1,494	-$0	0.0%	$5,553 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.95	8/10	$9,267	$11,059	56%	70%	+$1,229	-$0	0.0%	$4,823 (vs do-nothing +$1,160)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	6/10	$9,982	$15,320	56%	70%	+$1,457	-$0	0.0%	$4,023 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.35	8/10	$9,800	$11,593	54%	69%	+$1,166	-$0	0.0%	$4,343 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.50	5/10	$8,864	$15,975	54%	68%	+$1,148	-$0	0.0%	$3,663 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.76	5/10	$10,350	$17,461	54%	68%	+$1,660	-$235	0.8%	$1,793 (vs do-nothing $-1,870)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	7/10	$9,217	$12,782	52%	68%	+$1,113	-$0	0.0%	$3,943 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.95	5/10	$9,477	$16,588	52%	67%	+$1,110	-$0	0.0%	$3,388 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.35	7/10	$9,742	$13,307	50%	67%	+$1,061	-$0	0.0%	$3,558 (vs do-nothing $-105)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.45	5/10	$10,159	$17,270	50%	66%	+$1,102	-$0	0.0%	$3,138 (vs do-nothing $-525)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	4/10	$9,600	$18,484	48%	66%	+$1,184	-$412	1.5%	$1,943 (vs do-nothing $-1,720)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.70	4/10	$11,100	$19,984	43%	63%	+$1,018	-$612	2.2%	$1,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 22:11