FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $104.20

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.59 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $104.20 UNDERWATER $4.73 (4.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.59 (banked floor $111.00) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$16,071/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,110/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,275	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,036/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,110/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$16,071/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.59 (probe: $113C 14d) still earns $9,000/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$5,771

was $7,275 · 21% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$112.59 → $111.00

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 57 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.68 (+19%) · daily UBB $114.93 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.59 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $113 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

70%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$4,750

Income / mo

$6,786

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.33/sh now → $6.60 mid-life (likely $7.77–$10.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,703 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 21, at $116 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.64/sh	+$645 cycle +$5,395 [-$135…+$523] · 58% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$114	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$374 cycle +$5,124 [-$399…+$224] · 35% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$374 cycle +$5,124 [-$399…+$224] · 35% credit	69% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$4.48/sh	-$4,484 cycle +$266 [-$6,425…-$5,202]	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $4,750 debit $4,484 (94% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$266 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,527/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $117 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

81%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$2,360

Income / mo

$10,114

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.57/sh now → $5.36 mid-life (likely $5.60–$8.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 917 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $121 (overshoots $3.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.62/sh	+$1,617 cycle +$3,977 [+$958…+$2,307] · 99% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.22/sh	+$1,216 cycle +$3,576 [-$120…+$1,737] · 70% credit	73% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.36/sh	+$363 cycle +$2,723 [-$560…+$763] · 49% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$125	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.21/sh	+$207 cycle +$2,567 [-$1,327…+$509] · 36% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$2.10/sh	-$2,098 cycle +$262 [-$4,243…-$2,037] · 4% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $2,360 debit $2,098 (89% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$262 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,075/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $125 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,110

Income / mo

$4,757

Buyback gross: $8.09/sh now → $5.72 mid-life (likely $4.87–$8.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $129 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.46/sh	+$1,456 cycle +$2,566 [+$1,212…+$2,892] · 100% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.46/sh	+$465 cycle +$1,575 [-$348…+$1,802] · 66% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.20/sh	+$197 cycle +$1,307 [-$279…+$1,351] · 64% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$133	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.01/sh	+$9 cycle +$1,119 [-$921…+$1,247] · 53% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.81/sh	-$807 cycle +$303 [-$1,880…+$318] · 32% credit	78% surv 71%
budget: banked $1,110 debit $807 (73% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,147/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (42 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 42 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,551 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,086

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.96	10/10	$8,400	$6,290	83%	86%	+$3,949	-$0	0.0%	$2,236 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$118	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.10	9/10	$8,100	$7,147	82%	85%	+$3,573	-$0	0.0%	$2,347 (vs do-nothing +$261)
$117	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	8/10	$8,091	$8,296	81%	84%	+$3,550	-$0	0.0%	$2,526 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$116	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.52	8/10	$8,640	$8,844	79%	83%	+$3,523	-$0	0.0%	$2,654 (vs do-nothing +$568)
$115	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.76	7/10	$8,280	$9,642	77%	82%	+$3,243	-$0	0.0%	$2,751 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$114	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	7/10	$9,150	$10,512	75%	81%	+$3,494	-$0	0.0%	$2,954 (vs do-nothing +$868)
$113	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	6/10	$8,357	$10,876	73%	79%	+$2,924	-$0	0.0%	$2,950 (vs do-nothing +$864)
$114	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	10/10	$8,143	$6,033	73%	79%	+$2,380	-$0	0.0%	$4,076 (vs do-nothing +$1,990)
$112	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	6/10	$9,129	$11,647	71%	78%	+$3,052	-$0	0.0%	$2,776 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$113	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	9/10	$8,100	$7,147	71%	78%	+$2,419	-$0	0.0%	$4,237 (vs do-nothing +$2,151)
$111	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.90	5/10	$8,357	$12,033	69%	77%	+$2,706	-$0	0.0%	$2,336 (vs do-nothing +$250)
$112	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.50	9/10	$8,679	$7,726	69%	77%	+$2,465	-$0	0.0%	$3,976 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$111	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	8/10	$8,143	$8,347	67%	76%	+$2,110	-$0	0.0%	$3,166 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)

Show 29 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/10	$9,107	$12,783	67%	76%	+$2,816	-$0	0.0%	$2,011 (vs do-nothing $-75)
$110	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	8/10	$8,914	$9,119	66%	75%	+$2,810	-$0	0.0%	$2,726 (vs do-nothing +$640)
$109	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.60	5/10	$9,857	$13,533	65%	75%	+$2,869	-$0	0.0%	$1,686 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$110	21d	7 Aug 2026	$5.90	10/10	$8,429	$6,319	65%	74%	+$2,037	-$0	0.0%	$3,586 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)
$109	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	7/10	$8,100	$9,462	64%	74%	+$1,833	-$0	0.0%	$2,086 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	10/10	$8,571	$6,462	63%	73%	+$1,680	-$0	0.0%	$2,686 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$108	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	4/10	$8,400	$13,233	62%	73%	+$2,206	-$0	0.0%	$1,486 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$108	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	7/10	$8,700	$10,062	62%	73%	+$1,887	-$0	0.0%	$1,666 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$108	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.70	9/10	$8,614	$7,662	61%	73%	+$1,934	-$0	0.0%	$2,356 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$107	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	4/10	$9,257	$14,090	60%	72%	+$2,411	-$76	0.3%	$1,286 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$107	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.35	6/10	$8,164	$10,683	59%	72%	+$1,826	-$0	0.0%	$1,456 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$107	21d	7 Aug 2026	$7.05	8/10	$8,057	$8,262	59%	72%	+$1,669	-$0	0.0%	$1,806 (vs do-nothing $-280)
$107	28d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	10/10	$8,196	$6,087	59%	72%	+$1,600	-$0	0.0%	$2,336 (vs do-nothing +$250)
$106	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$9,943	$14,776	58%	71%	+$2,396	-$316	1.1%	$1,046 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$106	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.05	10/10	$8,625	$6,515	57%	71%	+$1,584	-$0	0.0%	$1,736 (vs do-nothing $-350)
$106	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	6/10	$8,486	$11,004	57%	71%	+$1,618	-$0	0.0%	$1,006 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$106	21d	7 Aug 2026	$7.45	8/10	$8,514	$8,719	57%	71%	+$1,649	-$0	0.0%	$1,326 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$105	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.60	9/10	$8,293	$7,340	56%	70%	+$1,535	-$0	0.0%	$1,366 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$105	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	8/10	$9,143	$9,347	55%	70%	+$1,774	-$0	0.0%	$966 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$105	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	6/10	$9,193	$11,712	55%	70%	+$1,763	-$264	0.9%	$736 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$105	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/10	$8,036	$14,026	55%	70%	+$1,812	-$402	1.4%	$1,141 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$104	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.90	9/10	$8,582	$7,629	54%	69%	+$1,383	-$0	0.0%	$736 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$104	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.30	7/10	$8,300	$9,662	53%	69%	+$1,387	-$203	0.7%	$616 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$104	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/10	$8,250	$11,926	53%	69%	+$1,563	-$445	1.6%	$736 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$104	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/10	$8,679	$14,669	52%	69%	+$1,852	-$552	2.0%	$991 (vs do-nothing $-1,095)
$103	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.95	9/10	$8,630	$7,678	52%	68%	+$968	-$576	2.1%	$-119 (vs do-nothing $-2,205)
$103	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.75	7/10	$8,750	$10,112	51%	68%	+$1,348	-$588	2.1%	$231 (vs do-nothing $-1,855)
$103	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.05	5/10	$8,625	$12,301	51%	68%	+$1,415	-$770	2.8%	$411 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$103	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/10	$9,257	$15,247	50%	68%	+$1,789	-$717	2.6%	$826 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 01:37