FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $104.23

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $110.78 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $104.23 UNDERWATER $4.70 (4.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $110.78 (banked floor $109.17) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$16,007/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,077/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-5,550	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,004/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,077/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$16,007/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $110.78 (probe: $111C 14d) still earns $10,286/mo (64% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$4,047

was $5,550 · 27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$110.78 → $109.17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 57 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.67 (+19%) · daily UBB $114.92 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $110.78 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $114 14 Aug 2026 (28d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$5,100

Income / mo

$5,464

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $117 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$2,430

Income / mo

$10,414

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $5.72–$9.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 921 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $121 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.56/sh	+$1,556 cycle +$3,986 [+$866…+$2,244] · 98% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.25/sh	+$1,245 cycle +$3,675 [-$450…+$1,515] · 62% credit	71% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.30/sh	+$298 cycle +$2,728 [-$662…+$684] · 45% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$125	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.14/sh	+$138 cycle +$2,568 [-$1,787…+$318] · 30% credit	73% surv 66%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$2.40/sh	-$2,399 cycle +$31 [-$4,249…-$2,426]	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $2,430 debit $2,399 (99% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$31 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $9,072/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $125 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,210

Income / mo

$5,186

Buyback gross: $8.19/sh now → $5.79 mid-life (likely $4.98–$8.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $129 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.39/sh	+$1,390 cycle +$2,600 [+$1,135…+$2,830] · 99% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.75/sh	+$752 cycle +$1,962 [-$355…+$1,874] · 67% credit	71% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.13/sh	+$127 cycle +$1,337 [-$423…+$1,272] · 62% credit	72% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$132	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.39/sh	+$394 cycle +$1,604 [-$777…+$1,514] · 57% credit	72% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.02/sh	-$1,025 cycle +$185 [-$2,199…+$87] · 27% credit	78% surv 71%
budget: banked $1,210 debit $1,025 (85% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$185 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,962/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (43 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 43 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.896 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,869 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,039

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.88	10/10	$8,057	$5,980	89%	91%	+$5,989	-$0	0.0%	$2,199 (vs do-nothing $-1,840)
$118	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	9/10	$8,524	$7,626	86%	89%	+$5,939	-$0	0.0%	$2,680 (vs do-nothing $-1,359)
$117	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.43	8/10	$8,331	$8,612	84%	88%	+$5,636	-$0	0.0%	$3,007 (vs do-nothing $-1,032)
$119	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.02	10/10	$8,657	$6,580	83%	86%	+$3,982	-$0	0.0%	$2,339 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$116	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.64	8/10	$9,051	$9,332	79%	83%	+$3,735	-$0	0.0%	$3,175 (vs do-nothing $-864)
$114	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	7/10	$9,300	$10,759	78%	84%	+$5,579	-$0	0.0%	$3,605 (vs do-nothing $-434)
$115	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.88	7/10	$8,640	$10,099	77%	82%	+$3,427	-$0	0.0%	$3,451 (vs do-nothing $-588)
$113	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	6/10	$8,614	$11,252	76%	83%	+$4,928	-$0	0.0%	$3,817 (vs do-nothing $-222)
$114	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.90	10/10	$8,357	$6,280	73%	79%	+$2,523	-$0	0.0%	$4,219 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$111	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/10	$8,464	$12,280	72%	81%	+$4,406	-$0	0.0%	$4,154 (vs do-nothing +$115)
$112	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	6/10	$9,386	$12,023	71%	78%	+$3,168	-$0	0.0%	$3,997 (vs do-nothing $-42)
$113	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	9/10	$8,196	$7,298	71%	78%	+$2,457	-$0	0.0%	$4,516 (vs do-nothing +$477)
$110	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/10	$9,214	$13,030	69%	79%	+$4,575	-$0	0.0%	$3,939 (vs do-nothing $-100)

Show 30 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$112	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.50	9/10	$8,679	$7,780	69%	77%	+$2,414	-$0	0.0%	$4,741 (vs do-nothing +$702)
$111	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	8/10	$8,229	$8,509	67%	76%	+$2,157	-$0	0.0%	$4,903 (vs do-nothing +$864)
$109	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	5/10	$9,964	$13,780	66%	78%	+$4,682	-$0	0.0%	$3,614 (vs do-nothing $-425)
$111	21d	7 Aug 2026	$5.65	10/10	$8,071	$5,995	66%	74%	+$1,143	-$0	0.0%	$5,969 (vs do-nothing +$1,930)
$110	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	8/10	$8,914	$9,195	65%	75%	+$2,304	-$0	0.0%	$4,599 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$110	21d	7 Aug 2026	$5.85	10/10	$8,357	$6,280	64%	73%	+$943	-$0	0.0%	$5,389 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)
$109	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.50	7/10	$8,250	$9,709	63%	74%	+$1,961	-$0	0.0%	$4,039 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.20	10/10	$8,857	$6,780	62%	72%	+$931	-$0	0.0%	$4,739 (vs do-nothing +$700)
$108	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	4/10	$8,571	$13,566	62%	73%	+$2,306	-$0	0.0%	$3,439 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$108	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	7/10	$8,775	$10,234	61%	73%	+$1,946	-$0	0.0%	$3,584 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$108	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.75	9/10	$8,679	$7,780	61%	71%	+$1,059	-$0	0.0%	$4,264 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$107	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$9,343	$14,337	60%	72%	+$2,433	-$0	0.0%	$3,219 (vs do-nothing $-820)
$107	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.35	6/10	$8,164	$10,802	59%	72%	+$1,818	-$0	0.0%	$3,349 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$107	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.95	9/10	$8,936	$8,037	59%	70%	+$806	-$0	0.0%	$3,544 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$106	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.00	10/10	$8,571	$6,495	58%	69%	+$100	-$0	0.0%	$3,539 (vs do-nothing $-500)
$106	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$9,943	$14,937	57%	71%	+$2,338	-$0	0.0%	$2,959 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$106	21d	7 Aug 2026	$7.45	8/10	$8,514	$8,795	57%	70%	+$811	-$0	0.0%	$3,199 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$106	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	6/10	$8,614	$11,252	57%	71%	+$1,743	-$0	0.0%	$2,959 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$105	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.45	9/10	$8,148	$7,250	56%	68%	+$104	-$0	0.0%	$3,094 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$105	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.05	7/10	$8,050	$9,509	56%	69%	+$872	-$0	0.0%	$3,024 (vs do-nothing $-1,015)
$105	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.25	6/10	$9,321	$11,959	55%	70%	+$1,893	-$0	0.0%	$2,689 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$105	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	3/10	$8,100	$14,273	55%	70%	+$1,837	-$0	0.0%	$3,079 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$104	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.80	9/10	$8,486	$7,587	55%	68%	+$5	-$0	0.0%	$2,509 (vs do-nothing $-1,530)
$104	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.25	7/10	$8,250	$9,709	54%	68%	+$614	-$0	0.0%	$2,464 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$103	28d	14 Aug 2026	$9.20	9/10	$8,871	$7,973	53%	67%	$-64	-$0	0.0%	$1,969 (vs do-nothing $-2,070)
$104	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/10	$8,250	$12,066	53%	69%	+$1,568	-$0	0.0%	$2,639 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$104	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/10	$8,679	$14,852	52%	69%	+$1,817	-$9	0.0%	$2,914 (vs do-nothing $-1,125)
$103	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.70	7/10	$8,700	$10,159	51%	68%	+$1,324	-$0	0.0%	$2,079 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)
$103	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.05	5/10	$8,625	$12,441	51%	68%	+$1,423	-$0	0.0%	$2,314 (vs do-nothing $-1,725)
$103	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/10	$9,257	$15,430	50%	68%	+$1,758	-$174	0.6%	$2,749 (vs do-nothing $-1,290)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 09:36