FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $105.05

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.18 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $105.05 UNDERWATER $3.88 (3.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.18 (banked floor $111.60) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$15,643/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,209/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,100	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,821/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,209/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,643/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.8 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.1 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.18 (probe: $113C 14d) still earns $8,893/mo (57% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$5,597

was $7,100 · 21% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.18 → $111.60

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 59 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.67 (+18%) · daily UBB $114.98 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.18 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $114 7 Aug 2026 (21d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$4,350

Income / mo

$6,214

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$112	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$351 cycle +$4,701 [-$713…+$139] · 30% credit	64% surv 49%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.58/sh	-$576 cycle +$3,774 [-$1,996…-$1,048] · 9% credit	64% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$3.92/sh	-$3,924 cycle +$426 [-$5,777…-$4,654]	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $4,350 debit $3,924 (90% used ≈ 2.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$426 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,505/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $119 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,060

Income / mo

$8,829

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.84/sh now → $5.54 mid-life (likely $5.14–$8.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 617 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $122 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.21/sh	+$1,209 cycle +$3,269 [+$276…+$1,957] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$121	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.04/sh	+$1,037 cycle +$3,097 [-$332…+$1,765] · 68% credit	68% surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$121	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.19/sh	+$190 cycle +$2,250 [-$920…+$806] · 48% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	7 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$282 cycle +$2,342 [-$1,187…+$971] · 47% credit	70% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.70/sh	-$1,696 cycle +$364 [-$3,576…-$1,105] · 13% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $2,060 debit $1,696 (82% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$364 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,809/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $130 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $130)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,190

Income / mo

$2,550

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$130	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.17/sh	+$171 cycle +$1,361 [-$440…+$1,238] · 57% credit	66% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.18/sh	+$182 cycle +$1,372 [-$428…+$1,253] · 57% credit	66% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	7 Aug 2026	14d left	-$1.12/sh	-$1,120 cycle +$70 [-$1,974…-$261] · 22% credit	69% surv 59%
budget: banked $1,190 debit $1,120 (94% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$70 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,094/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.903 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,342 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,561

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	7d	24 Jul 2026	$1.89	10/10	$8,100	$5,891	83%	85%	+$3,162	-$0	0.0%	$2,132 (vs do-nothing +$571)
$119	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.06	9/10	$7,946	$6,915	81%	85%	+$2,975	-$0	0.0%	$2,228 (vs do-nothing +$667)
$118	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.26	9/10	$8,717	$7,687	80%	84%	+$3,163	-$0	0.0%	$2,408 (vs do-nothing +$847)
$117	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.47	8/10	$8,469	$8,617	78%	83%	+$2,958	-$0	0.0%	$2,482 (vs do-nothing +$921)
$116	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.67	7/10	$8,010	$9,337	77%	81%	+$2,635	-$0	0.0%	$2,507 (vs do-nothing +$946)
$115	7d	24 Jul 2026	$2.96	7/10	$8,880	$10,207	75%	80%	+$2,896	-$0	0.0%	$2,710 (vs do-nothing +$1,149)
$114	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.15	6/10	$8,100	$10,605	73%	79%	+$2,397	-$0	0.0%	$2,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,099)
$113	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	6/10	$8,743	$11,248	71%	78%	+$2,410	-$0	0.0%	$2,701 (vs do-nothing +$1,140)
$114	14d	31 Jul 2026	$3.85	10/10	$8,250	$6,041	71%	78%	+$2,025	-$0	0.0%	$4,092 (vs do-nothing +$2,531)
$113	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.15	9/10	$8,004	$6,973	69%	77%	+$1,886	-$0	0.0%	$3,946 (vs do-nothing +$2,385)
$112	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/10	$8,143	$11,827	69%	77%	+$2,292	-$0	0.0%	$2,211 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$112	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.50	9/10	$8,679	$7,648	68%	76%	+$2,005	-$0	0.0%	$3,361 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$111	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$8,786	$12,470	67%	76%	+$2,309	-$0	0.0%	$1,861 (vs do-nothing +$300)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	14d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	8/10	$8,229	$8,377	66%	75%	+$1,765	-$0	0.0%	$2,601 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$110	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/10	$9,536	$13,220	65%	74%	+$2,378	-$0	0.0%	$1,536 (vs do-nothing $-25)
$110	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	7/10	$7,950	$9,277	64%	74%	+$1,796	-$0	0.0%	$2,121 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$110	21d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$8,000	$5,791	63%	72%	+$232	-$0	0.0%	$2,661 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$109	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/10	$8,143	$13,005	63%	73%	+$1,826	-$0	0.0%	$1,261 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$109	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.50	7/10	$8,250	$9,577	62%	73%	+$1,561	-$0	0.0%	$1,561 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$108	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/10	$8,743	$13,605	61%	75%	+$3,485	-$32	0.1%	$1,001 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$109	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	10/10	$8,643	$6,434	61%	71%	+$341	-$0	0.0%	$2,111 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$108	14d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	7/10	$8,925	$10,252	60%	72%	+$1,665	-$0	0.0%	$1,176 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$108	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	9/10	$8,229	$7,198	59%	70%	+$251	-$0	0.0%	$1,471 (vs do-nothing $-90)
$107	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.55	4/10	$9,514	$14,377	58%	74%	+$3,584	-$252	0.9%	$781 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$107	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	6/10	$8,100	$10,605	58%	71%	+$1,355	-$0	0.0%	$841 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$107	21d	7 Aug 2026	$6.80	9/10	$8,743	$7,713	58%	70%	+$233	-$0	0.0%	$931 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$106	21d	7 Aug 2026	$7.50	8/10	$8,571	$8,720	56%	69%	+$511	-$0	0.0%	$761 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$106	14d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	6/10	$8,743	$11,248	55%	70%	+$1,442	-$229	0.8%	$541 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$106	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/10	$10,200	$15,063	55%	73%	+$3,538	-$492	1.8%	$541 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$105	28d	14 Aug 2026	$7.35	10/10	$7,875	$5,666	55%	67%	$-1,405	-$831	3.0%	$-589 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)
$105	21d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	8/10	$8,800	$8,948	54%	68%	+$220	-$385	1.4%	$121 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.35	5/10	$7,875	$11,559	53%	69%	+$1,300	-$416	1.5%	$486 (vs do-nothing $-1,075)
$104	28d	14 Aug 2026	$7.80	10/10	$8,357	$6,148	53%	67%	$-1,425	-$1,381	5.0%	$-1,139 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$105	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	3/10	$8,229	$14,270	52%	71%	+$2,637	-$534	1.9%	$631 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$104	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	7/10	$8,200	$9,527	52%	68%	+$908	-$687	2.5%	$-49 (vs do-nothing $-1,610)
$104	14d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	5/10	$8,250	$11,934	51%	68%	+$1,155	-$741	2.7%	$161 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$103	28d	14 Aug 2026	$8.30	9/10	$8,004	$6,973	50%	67%	$-12	-$1,693	6.1%	$-1,319 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$103	21d	7 Aug 2026	$8.70	7/10	$8,700	$10,027	50%	67%	+$908	-$1,037	3.7%	$-399 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)
$104	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/10	$8,807	$14,848	49%	70%	+$2,573	-$699	2.5%	$466 (vs do-nothing $-1,095)
$103	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	5/10	$8,839	$12,523	49%	67%	+$1,196	-$966	3.5%	$-64 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$103	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	3/10	$9,514	$15,555	46%	69%	+$2,590	-$834	3.0%	$331 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 21:37