FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $103.46

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.94 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $103.46 UNDERWATER $5.47 (5.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 5 days. The recommended CC (6d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.94 (banked floor $111.36) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$16,131/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,183/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-8,275	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,065/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,183/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$16,131/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.94 (probe: $113C 13d) still earns $8,769/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$6,772

was $8,275 · 18% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$112.94 → $111.36

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 53 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.64 (+20%) · daily UBB $114.83 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $113 7 Aug 2026 (20d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

70%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$4,450

Income / mo

$6,675

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 20); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.12/sh now → $6.45 mid-life (likely $7.59–$10.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,647 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 20, at $116 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.51/sh	+$510 cycle +$4,960 [-$171…+$606] · 56% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$114	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.26/sh	+$262 cycle +$4,712 [-$447…+$293] · 37% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	14 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.26/sh	+$262 cycle +$4,712 [-$447…+$293] · 37% credit	68% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	14 Aug 2026	17d left	-$4.40/sh	-$4,404 cycle +$46 [-$6,236…-$5,089]	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $4,450 debit $4,404 (99% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,617/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,700

Income / mo

$13,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $5.01–$8.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $117 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.70/sh	+$1,698 cycle +$4,398 [+$662…+$2,162] · 89% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.05/sh	+$1,046 cycle +$3,746 [-$516…+$1,578] · 62% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.24/sh	+$238 cycle +$2,938 [-$1,085…+$553] · 39% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.04/sh	+$42 cycle +$2,742 [-$1,724…+$463] · 33% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	7 Aug 2026	17d left	-$2.66/sh	-$2,663 cycle +$37 [-$4,973…-$2,562]	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,700 debit $2,663 (99% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,109/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $127 31 Jul 2026 (13d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $127)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,270

Income / mo

$2,931

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 6 of 13); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.23/sh now → $6.53 mid-life (likely $5.26–$8.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 488 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 13, at $130 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.69/sh	+$686 cycle +$1,956 [+$178…+$1,769] · 80% credit	66% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$128	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.44/sh	+$440 cycle +$1,710 [-$111…+$1,503] · 71% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.25/sh	+$252 cycle +$1,522 [-$335…+$1,691] · 66% credit	70% surv 58%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$1.22/sh	-$1,216 cycle +$54 [-$2,008…+$42] · 25% credit	74% surv 66%
budget: banked $1,270 debit $1,216 (96% used ≈ 1.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,974/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (44 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 44 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.892 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,457 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,291

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	6d	24 Jul 2026	$1.72	10/10	$8,600	$6,417	90%	92%	+$6,611	-$0	0.0%	$1,902 (vs do-nothing +$611)
$118	6d	24 Jul 2026	$1.88	9/10	$8,460	$7,442	88%	91%	+$6,316	-$0	0.0%	$1,985 (vs do-nothing +$694)
$117	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.06	8/10	$8,240	$8,387	87%	90%	+$5,966	-$0	0.0%	$2,052 (vs do-nothing +$761)
$116	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.26	8/10	$9,040	$9,187	85%	89%	+$6,338	-$0	0.0%	$2,212 (vs do-nothing +$921)
$115	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.47	7/10	$8,645	$9,958	83%	87%	+$5,848	-$0	0.0%	$2,244 (vs do-nothing +$953)
$114	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.70	6/10	$8,100	$10,578	81%	86%	+$5,275	-$0	0.0%	$2,246 (vs do-nothing +$955)
$113	6d	24 Jul 2026	$2.95	6/10	$8,850	$11,328	79%	85%	+$5,535	-$0	0.0%	$2,396 (vs do-nothing +$1,105)
$112	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	6/10	$9,600	$12,078	77%	84%	+$5,726	-$0	0.0%	$1,981 (vs do-nothing +$690)
$111	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	5/10	$8,625	$12,269	75%	82%	+$4,868	-$0	0.0%	$1,491 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$114	13d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/10	$8,077	$5,894	74%	80%	+$2,442	-$0	0.0%	$3,682 (vs do-nothing +$2,391)
$113	13d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	10/10	$8,769	$6,586	72%	79%	+$2,587	-$0	0.0%	$3,982 (vs do-nothing +$2,691)
$110	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/10	$9,500	$13,144	72%	81%	+$5,147	-$0	0.0%	$1,166 (vs do-nothing $-125)
$112	13d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	9/10	$8,412	$7,394	71%	78%	+$2,314	-$0	0.0%	$3,091 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)

Show 31 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	13d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	9/10	$9,035	$8,017	69%	77%	+$2,363	-$0	0.0%	$2,461 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$110	13d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	8/10	$8,769	$8,917	67%	75%	+$2,289	-$0	0.0%	$1,851 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$109	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/10	$8,200	$13,009	67%	76%	+$2,421	-$0	0.0%	$911 (vs do-nothing $-380)
$109	13d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	7/10	$8,158	$9,471	65%	74%	+$1,971	-$0	0.0%	$1,291 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$108	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/10	$8,900	$13,709	64%	74%	+$2,472	-$196	0.7%	$651 (vs do-nothing $-640)
$109	20d	7 Aug 2026	$5.70	10/10	$8,550	$6,367	64%	73%	+$708	-$0	0.0%	$1,941 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$108	13d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	7/10	$8,723	$10,036	63%	73%	+$1,983	-$0	0.0%	$836 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$108	20d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	9/10	$8,167	$7,150	62%	72%	+$621	-$0	0.0%	$1,291 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$107	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/10	$9,600	$14,409	62%	73%	+$2,468	-$456	1.6%	$391 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$107	13d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	7/10	$9,369	$10,682	61%	72%	+$2,037	-$99	0.4%	$416 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$107	20d	7 Aug 2026	$6.45	9/10	$8,708	$7,690	60%	71%	+$646	-$0	0.0%	$751 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$106	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/10	$10,400	$15,209	59%	72%	+$2,506	-$696	2.5%	$151 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$106	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.15	6/10	$8,515	$10,994	59%	71%	+$1,690	-$475	1.7%	$151 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$106	27d	14 Aug 2026	$7.30	10/10	$8,111	$5,928	59%	71%	+$1,374	-$0	0.0%	$541 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$106	20d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	8/10	$8,220	$8,367	59%	70%	+$573	-$73	0.3%	$331 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$105	20d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	8/10	$8,700	$8,847	57%	69%	+$547	-$553	2.0%	$-149 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	3/10	$8,475	$14,449	57%	71%	+$1,938	-$687	2.5%	$271 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$105	27d	14 Aug 2026	$7.80	10/10	$8,667	$6,483	57%	70%	+$1,463	-$141	0.5%	$41 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$105	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	6/10	$9,138	$11,617	57%	70%	+$1,737	-$805	2.9%	$-179 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$104	20d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	7/10	$8,085	$9,398	55%	68%	+$487	-$869	3.1%	$-354 (vs do-nothing $-1,645)
$104	27d	14 Aug 2026	$8.20	9/10	$8,200	$7,182	55%	70%	+$1,275	-$667	2.4%	$-374 (vs do-nothing $-1,665)
$104	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.00	5/10	$8,077	$11,721	55%	69%	+$1,400	-$971	3.5%	$-234 (vs do-nothing $-1,525)
$104	6d	24 Jul 2026	$6.05	3/10	$9,075	$15,049	54%	72%	+$3,301	-$867	3.1%	$91 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$103	20d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	7/10	$8,558	$9,870	53%	67%	+$473	-$1,254	4.5%	$-739 (vs do-nothing $-2,030)
$103	27d	14 Aug 2026	$8.65	9/10	$8,650	$7,632	53%	69%	+$1,261	-$1,162	4.2%	$-869 (vs do-nothing $-2,160)
$103	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	5/10	$8,596	$12,240	52%	68%	+$1,379	-$1,246	4.5%	$-509 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$102	20d	7 Aug 2026	$8.60	7/10	$9,030	$10,343	52%	67%	+$437	-$1,639	5.9%	$-1,124 (vs do-nothing $-2,415)
$102	27d	14 Aug 2026	$9.05	9/10	$9,050	$8,032	51%	68%	+$1,175	-$1,702	6.1%	$-1,409 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$103	6d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	3/10	$9,825	$15,799	51%	71%	+$3,333	-$1,017	3.7%	$-59 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$102	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.95	5/10	$9,173	$12,817	50%	67%	+$1,386	-$1,496	5.4%	$-759 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)
$102	6d	24 Jul 2026	$7.00	3/10	$10,500	$16,474	47%	70%	+$3,232	-$1,182	4.2%	$-224 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-18 03:37