FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $103.24

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.33 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $103.24 UNDERWATER $5.69 (5.2% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 4 days. The recommended CC (5d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.33 (banked floor $110.74) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$18,150/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,242/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,840	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,075/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,242/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$18,150/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.33 (probe: $112C 12d) still earns $10,125/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$6,337

was $7,840 · 19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$112.33 → $110.74

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 52 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $123.62 (+20%) · daily UBB $114.80 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.33 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $113 14 Aug 2026 (26d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

71%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$4,800

Income / mo

$5,538

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $115 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,430

Income / mo

$14,580

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $4.68–$7.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 466 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $118 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.97/sh	+$1,967 cycle +$4,397 [+$816…+$2,505] · 86% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$121	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.89/sh	+$891 cycle +$3,321 [-$776…+$1,460] · 60% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.35/sh	+$354 cycle +$2,784 [-$1,043…+$677] · 43% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.13/sh	+$129 cycle +$2,559 [-$1,639…+$621] · 37% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$2.25/sh	-$2,251 cycle +$179 [-$4,357…-$1,942] · 0% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $2,430 debit $2,251 (93% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$179 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,147/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $121 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $121)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,170

Income / mo

$7,020

Buyback gross: $7.43/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $4.28–$8.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 194 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $124 (overshoots $3.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$121	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.87/sh	+$1,873 cycle +$3,043 [+$676…+$2,874] · 86% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$127	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.76/sh	+$764 cycle +$1,934 [-$1,016…+$1,947] · 60% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.26/sh	+$257 cycle +$1,427 [-$1,370…+$1,137] · 48% credit	73% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$103 cycle +$1,273 [-$1,810…+$1,218] · 44% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$0.87/sh	-$866 cycle +$304 [-$2,979…+$197] · 28% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,170 debit $866 (74% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$304 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,488/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (36 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$8,184 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,061

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.53	10/10	$9,180	$6,938	88%	90%	+$5,990	-$0	0.0%	$1,874 (vs do-nothing $-186)
$117	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.01	8/10	$9,648	$9,931	84%	87%	+$5,687	-$0	0.0%	$2,296 (vs do-nothing +$235)
$116	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	7/10	$9,282	$10,828	83%	86%	+$5,285	-$0	0.0%	$2,406 (vs do-nothing +$346)
$115	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.43	7/10	$10,206	$11,752	81%	85%	+$5,608	-$0	0.0%	$2,560 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$114	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.67	6/10	$9,612	$12,420	79%	84%	+$5,088	-$0	0.0%	$2,633 (vs do-nothing +$572)
$113	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.91	6/10	$10,476	$13,284	77%	83%	+$5,297	-$0	0.0%	$2,777 (vs do-nothing +$716)
$112	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.15	5/10	$9,450	$13,521	75%	82%	+$4,522	-$0	0.0%	$2,611 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$113	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.75	10/10	$9,375	$7,133	75%	82%	+$4,642	-$0	0.0%	$4,094 (vs do-nothing +$2,034)
$111	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	5/10	$10,350	$14,421	73%	80%	+$4,738	-$0	0.0%	$2,261 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$112	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	9/10	$9,112	$8,133	72%	79%	+$3,190	-$0	0.0%	$3,861 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$110	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.75	5/10	$11,250	$15,321	71%	79%	+$4,878	-$0	0.0%	$1,911 (vs do-nothing $-150)
$111	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	9/10	$9,788	$8,808	70%	78%	+$3,264	-$0	0.0%	$3,231 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$109	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/10	$9,840	$15,173	68%	78%	+$4,069	-$0	0.0%	$1,681 (vs do-nothing $-380)

Show 23 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	8/10	$9,400	$9,683	68%	77%	+$3,024	-$0	0.0%	$2,581 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$109	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	8/10	$10,100	$10,383	66%	76%	+$3,100	-$0	0.0%	$2,061 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$108	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/10	$10,680	$16,013	66%	76%	+$4,169	-$0	0.0%	$1,421 (vs do-nothing $-640)
$108	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	7/10	$9,450	$10,996	64%	75%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$1,606 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$107	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.80	4/10	$11,520	$16,853	63%	75%	+$4,195	-$213	0.8%	$1,161 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$108	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	10/10	$9,553	$7,311	63%	74%	+$2,368	-$0	0.0%	$2,061 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$107	12d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	7/10	$10,150	$11,696	62%	73%	+$2,808	-$0	0.0%	$1,186 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$107	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	9/10	$9,095	$8,116	61%	73%	+$2,099	-$0	0.0%	$1,476 (vs do-nothing $-585)
$106	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	3/10	$9,360	$15,956	60%	74%	+$3,200	-$340	1.2%	$1,206 (vs do-nothing $-855)
$106	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	6/10	$9,300	$12,108	60%	72%	+$2,428	-$80	0.3%	$951 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)
$106	19d	7 Aug 2026	$6.80	9/10	$9,663	$8,684	59%	72%	+$2,105	-$0	0.0%	$936 (vs do-nothing $-1,125)
$105	12d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	6/10	$9,900	$12,708	57%	71%	+$2,410	-$440	1.6%	$591 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$105	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	8/10	$9,158	$9,441	57%	71%	+$1,909	-$67	0.2%	$621 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$104	26d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	10/10	$9,173	$6,932	55%	70%	+$1,501	-$384	1.4%	$-39 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$104	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.65	8/10	$9,663	$9,947	55%	70%	+$1,853	-$547	2.0%	$141 (vs do-nothing $-1,920)
$104	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.05	6/10	$10,575	$13,383	55%	70%	+$2,427	-$770	2.8%	$261 (vs do-nothing $-1,800)
$103	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	10/10	$9,635	$7,393	54%	69%	+$1,431	-$984	3.5%	$-639 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$103	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	8/10	$10,295	$10,578	53%	69%	+$1,892	-$947	3.4%	$-259 (vs do-nothing $-2,320)
$103	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	5/10	$9,375	$13,446	53%	69%	+$2,003	-$917	3.3%	$286 (vs do-nothing $-1,775)
$102	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.95	9/10	$9,294	$8,315	52%	69%	+$1,408	-$1,245	4.5%	$-729 (vs do-nothing $-2,790)
$102	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.55	7/10	$9,450	$10,996	51%	69%	+$1,567	-$1,249	4.5%	$-389 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$102	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.95	5/10	$9,938	$14,008	50%	68%	+$1,949	-$1,192	4.3%	$11 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)
$102	5d	24 Jul 2026	$7.00	3/10	$12,600	$19,196	47%	74%	+$5,418	-$1,000	3.6%	$546 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 21:24