FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $104.28

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.14 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $104.28 UNDERWATER $4.66 (4.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.14 (banked floor $111.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,765/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,138/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,882/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,138/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,765/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.14 (probe: $113C 17d) still earns $8,382/mo (61% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$6,236

was $7,740 · 19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.14 → $111.56

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 54 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $120.16 (+15%) · daily UBB $114.58 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.14 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $114 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

70%

Touch odds

65%

Per cycle

$5,150

Income / mo

$6,438

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $116 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,370

Income / mo

$23,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.44/sh now → $5.26 mid-life (likely $5.86–$10.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 719 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $121 (overshoots $4.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.99/sh	+$1,988 cycle +$4,358 [+$846…+$2,554] · 90% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.31/sh	+$1,309 cycle +$3,679 [-$654…+$1,724] · 62% credit	74% surv 64%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$126	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.03/sh	+$26 cycle +$2,396 [-$2,616…+$191] · 28% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$2.26/sh	-$2,257 cycle +$113 [-$5,367…-$2,356]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $2,370 debit $2,257 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$113 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,630/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $127 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $127)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,270

Income / mo

$3,810

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.38/sh now → $6.64 mid-life (likely $5.83–$9.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 462 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $131 (overshoots $3.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.53/sh	+$534 cycle +$1,804 [-$2…+$1,794] · 75% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$130	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.67/sh	+$675 cycle +$1,945 [-$55…+$2,036] · 74% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.27/sh	+$268 cycle +$1,538 [-$514…+$1,580] · 60% credit	72% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$129	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.04/sh	+$41 cycle +$1,311 [-$545…+$1,176] · 55% credit	70% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$135	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.25/sh	-$1,246 cycle +$24 [-$2,354…-$209] · 22% credit	76% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,270 debit $1,246 (98% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,513/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (52 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 52 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.903 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,006 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,225

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$127	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.78	9/10	$7,020	$5,959	94%	95%	+$5,262	-$0	0.0%	$1,164 (vs do-nothing $-1,061)
$126	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.87	8/10	$6,960	$6,975	94%	94%	+$5,125	-$0	0.0%	$1,354 (vs do-nothing $-871)
$125	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	7/10	$6,930	$8,021	93%	94%	+$5,046	-$0	0.0%	$1,547 (vs do-nothing $-678)
$124	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.07	7/10	$7,490	$8,581	92%	93%	+$5,282	-$0	0.0%	$1,603 (vs do-nothing $-622)
$123	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.19	6/10	$7,140	$9,308	91%	92%	+$4,925	-$0	0.0%	$1,764 (vs do-nothing $-461)
$122	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	6/10	$7,920	$10,088	90%	91%	+$5,331	-$0	0.0%	$1,842 (vs do-nothing $-383)
$121	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/10	$7,500	$10,744	89%	91%	+$4,984	-$0	0.0%	$1,996 (vs do-nothing $-229)
$120	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	5/10	$8,100	$11,344	88%	90%	+$5,172	-$0	0.0%	$2,056 (vs do-nothing $-169)
$119	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.73	4/10	$6,920	$11,241	86%	89%	+$4,199	-$0	0.0%	$2,134 (vs do-nothing $-91)
$118	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.94	4/10	$7,760	$12,081	85%	88%	+$4,607	-$0	0.0%	$2,218 (vs do-nothing $-7)
$117	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.14	4/10	$8,560	$12,881	83%	87%	+$4,914	-$0	0.0%	$2,298 (vs do-nothing +$73)
$120	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.30	10/10	$6,900	$4,762	83%	85%	+$3,036	-$0	0.0%	$2,566 (vs do-nothing +$341)
$116	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.37	3/10	$7,110	$12,507	81%	85%	+$3,956	-$0	0.0%	$2,348 (vs do-nothing +$123)

Show 39 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.53	10/10	$7,590	$5,452	81%	85%	+$3,282	-$0	0.0%	$2,796 (vs do-nothing +$571)
$118	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.36	10/10	$7,080	$4,942	80%	84%	+$2,284	-$0	0.0%	$2,626 (vs do-nothing +$401)
$115	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.61	3/10	$7,830	$13,227	80%	84%	+$4,202	-$0	0.0%	$2,420 (vs do-nothing +$195)
$117	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.80	9/10	$7,560	$6,499	78%	83%	+$2,764	-$0	0.0%	$2,982 (vs do-nothing +$757)
$114	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.86	3/10	$8,580	$13,977	78%	83%	+$4,417	-$0	0.0%	$2,495 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$116	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	8/10	$7,560	$7,575	77%	82%	+$2,831	-$0	0.0%	$3,178 (vs do-nothing +$953)
$113	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	3/10	$9,300	$14,697	76%	82%	+$4,538	-$0	0.0%	$2,525 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$116	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	10/10	$6,971	$4,833	75%	80%	+$2,421	-$0	0.0%	$4,216 (vs do-nothing +$1,991)
$112	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	2/10	$6,900	$13,374	73%	81%	+$3,278	-$0	0.0%	$2,295 (vs do-nothing +$70)
$115	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.15	10/10	$7,324	$5,186	73%	79%	+$2,373	-$0	0.0%	$4,416 (vs do-nothing +$2,191)
$114	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.45	9/10	$7,068	$6,006	72%	79%	+$2,224	-$0	0.0%	$4,467 (vs do-nothing +$2,242)
$111	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	2/10	$7,400	$13,874	71%	79%	+$3,281	-$0	0.0%	$2,145 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$113	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.75	9/10	$7,544	$6,483	70%	78%	+$2,282	-$0	0.0%	$4,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,385)
$110	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/10	$8,100	$14,574	68%	78%	+$3,430	-$0	0.0%	$2,015 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$112	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	8/10	$7,129	$7,144	68%	77%	+$2,053	-$0	0.0%	$3,785 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$112	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.75	10/10	$7,188	$5,050	67%	76%	+$1,945	-$0	0.0%	$4,875 (vs do-nothing +$2,650)
$111	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.40	8/10	$7,624	$7,639	67%	76%	+$2,119	-$0	0.0%	$3,265 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$109	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	2/10	$8,800	$15,274	66%	77%	+$3,522	-$0	0.0%	$1,885 (vs do-nothing $-340)
$111	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.10	10/10	$7,625	$5,487	66%	75%	+$1,990	-$0	0.0%	$4,225 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$110	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.45	9/10	$7,256	$6,195	64%	74%	+$1,811	-$0	0.0%	$3,440 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$108	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/10	$9,500	$15,974	63%	75%	+$3,554	-$78	0.3%	$1,755 (vs do-nothing $-470)
$109	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.10	7/10	$7,535	$8,627	63%	74%	+$1,891	-$0	0.0%	$2,225 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$109	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	9/10	$7,706	$6,645	63%	74%	+$1,865	-$0	0.0%	$2,900 (vs do-nothing +$675)
$108	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	8/10	$7,250	$7,265	61%	73%	+$1,686	-$0	0.0%	$2,345 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$107	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	2/10	$10,300	$16,774	60%	74%	+$3,623	-$198	0.7%	$1,635 (vs do-nothing $-590)
$107	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$7,306	$9,474	59%	72%	+$1,661	-$0	0.0%	$1,505 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$107	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	8/10	$7,650	$7,665	59%	72%	+$1,693	-$0	0.0%	$1,865 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$106	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/10	$11,200	$17,674	58%	73%	+$3,726	-$308	1.1%	$1,525 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$106	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	7/10	$6,956	$8,048	57%	71%	+$1,382	-$0	0.0%	$1,420 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$106	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.35	6/10	$7,782	$9,950	57%	71%	+$1,697	-$0	0.0%	$1,175 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$105	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	7/10	$7,306	$8,398	55%	70%	+$1,350	-$0	0.0%	$1,000 (vs do-nothing $-1,225)
$105	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.80	6/10	$8,259	$10,427	55%	70%	+$1,706	-$205	0.7%	$845 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$105	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.05	2/10	$12,100	$18,574	55%	71%	+$3,762	-$418	1.5%	$1,415 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$104	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.00	7/10	$7,875	$8,966	54%	70%	+$1,518	-$99	0.4%	$755 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$104	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/10	$9,000	$13,321	53%	69%	+$1,893	-$657	2.4%	$785 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$104	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/10	$13,100	$19,574	52%	70%	+$3,829	-$518	1.9%	$1,315 (vs do-nothing $-910)
$103	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.50	6/10	$7,125	$9,293	52%	69%	+$1,316	-$385	1.4%	$665 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$103	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/10	$6,930	$12,327	50%	68%	+$1,158	-$732	2.6%	$905 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$103	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	1/10	$7,050	$14,600	49%	69%	+$1,913	-$309	1.1%	$1,720 (vs do-nothing $-505)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 10:56