FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $104.55

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.43 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $104.55 UNDERWATER $4.38 (4.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.43 (banked floor $111.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,765/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,138/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,882/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,138/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,765/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.43 (probe: $113C 17d) still earns $8,382/mo (61% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$6,236

was $7,740 · 19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.43 → $111.84

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 55 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $120.16 (+15%) · daily UBB $114.60 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.43 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $115 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

72%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$4,850

Income / mo

$6,062

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

88%

Touch odds

24%

Per cycle

$2,860

Income / mo

$28,600

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.26/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $4.89–$8.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 455 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $117 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.87/sh	+$1,865 cycle +$4,725 [+$42…+$2,391] · 76% credit	72% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$119	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.37/sh	+$1,366 cycle +$4,226 [-$1,141…+$1,877] · 61% credit	74% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$116	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.81/sh	+$813 cycle +$3,673 [-$1,142…+$1,258] · 53% credit	75% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$54 cycle +$2,914 [-$2,604…+$504] · 34% credit	77% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.55/sh	-$2,546 cycle +$314 [-$5,714…-$2,235]	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $2,860 debit $2,546 (89% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$314 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,528/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $127 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $127)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,270

Income / mo

$3,810

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.33/sh now → $6.60 mid-life (likely $5.32–$8.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 312 simulated challenges: the $127 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $130 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.75/sh	+$749 cycle +$2,019 [+$179…+$1,981] · 79% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.30/sh	+$304 cycle +$1,574 [-$535…+$1,714] · 60% credit	72% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$128	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.08/sh	+$82 cycle +$1,352 [-$665…+$1,189] · 54% credit	70% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$134	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.17/sh	-$1,167 cycle +$103 [-$2,328…-$35] · 24% credit	75% surv 66%
budget: banked $1,270 debit $1,167 (92% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$103 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,583/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (54 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 54 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.540 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,793 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,273

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$127	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.78	9/10	$7,020	$5,959	100%	100%	+$7,000	-$0	0.0%	$-2,077 (vs do-nothing $-804)
$126	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.87	8/10	$6,960	$6,975	99%	100%	+$6,933	-$0	0.0%	$-1,916 (vs do-nothing $-643)
$125	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	7/10	$6,930	$8,021	99%	99%	+$6,894	-$0	0.0%	$-1,752 (vs do-nothing $-478)
$124	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.07	7/10	$7,490	$8,581	99%	99%	+$7,435	-$0	0.0%	$-1,696 (vs do-nothing $-422)
$123	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.19	6/10	$7,140	$9,308	99%	99%	+$7,069	-$0	0.0%	$-1,563 (vs do-nothing $-290)
$122	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	6/10	$7,920	$10,088	98%	99%	+$7,815	-$0	0.0%	$-1,485 (vs do-nothing $-212)
$121	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/10	$7,500	$10,744	98%	98%	+$7,372	-$0	0.0%	$-1,360 (vs do-nothing $-87)
$120	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	5/10	$8,100	$11,344	97%	98%	+$7,914	-$0	0.0%	$-1,300 (vs do-nothing $-27)
$119	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.73	4/10	$6,920	$11,241	96%	98%	+$6,706	-$0	0.0%	$-1,251 (vs do-nothing +$23)
$118	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.94	4/10	$7,760	$12,081	95%	97%	+$7,456	-$0	0.0%	$-1,167 (vs do-nothing +$107)
$117	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.14	4/10	$8,560	$12,881	94%	96%	+$8,134	-$0	0.0%	$-1,087 (vs do-nothing +$187)
$116	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.37	3/10	$7,110	$12,507	92%	96%	+$6,667	-$0	0.0%	$-1,064 (vs do-nothing +$209)
$115	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.61	3/10	$7,830	$13,227	91%	95%	+$7,223	-$0	0.0%	$-992 (vs do-nothing +$281)

Show 41 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.86	3/10	$8,580	$13,977	88%	94%	+$7,759	-$0	0.0%	$-917 (vs do-nothing +$356)
$113	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	3/10	$9,300	$14,697	86%	93%	+$8,202	-$0	0.0%	$-973 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$112	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	2/10	$6,900	$13,374	83%	92%	+$5,933	-$0	0.0%	$-1,203 (vs do-nothing +$70)
$111	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	2/10	$7,400	$13,874	80%	90%	+$6,137	-$0	0.0%	$-1,353 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$110	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/10	$8,100	$14,574	76%	89%	+$6,471	-$0	0.0%	$-1,483 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$116	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	10/10	$6,971	$4,833	74%	80%	+$2,286	-$0	0.0%	$1,003 (vs do-nothing +$2,277)
$115	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.15	10/10	$7,324	$5,186	73%	79%	+$2,229	-$0	0.0%	$1,203 (vs do-nothing +$2,477)
$109	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	2/10	$8,800	$15,274	72%	87%	+$6,725	-$5	0.0%	$-1,613 (vs do-nothing $-340)
$114	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.45	9/10	$7,068	$6,006	71%	78%	+$2,086	-$0	0.0%	$1,226 (vs do-nothing +$2,499)
$113	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.75	9/10	$7,544	$6,483	70%	77%	+$2,136	-$0	0.0%	$1,112 (vs do-nothing +$2,385)
$108	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/10	$9,500	$15,974	68%	86%	+$6,887	-$135	0.5%	$-1,743 (vs do-nothing $-470)
$112	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	8/10	$7,129	$7,144	68%	76%	+$1,915	-$0	0.0%	$287 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$112	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.75	10/10	$7,188	$5,050	67%	75%	+$1,475	-$0	0.0%	$1,377 (vs do-nothing +$2,650)
$111	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.40	8/10	$7,624	$7,639	66%	76%	+$1,973	-$0	0.0%	$-233 (vs do-nothing +$1,040)
$111	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.10	10/10	$7,625	$5,487	65%	74%	+$1,504	-$0	0.0%	$727 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$110	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.80	7/10	$7,165	$8,256	64%	74%	+$1,812	-$0	0.0%	$-783 (vs do-nothing +$490)
$110	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.45	9/10	$7,256	$6,195	64%	74%	+$1,683	-$0	0.0%	$-58 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$107	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	2/10	$10,300	$16,774	64%	84%	+$7,049	-$255	0.9%	$-1,863 (vs do-nothing $-590)
$109	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.10	7/10	$7,535	$8,627	62%	73%	+$1,747	-$0	0.0%	$-1,273 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	9/10	$7,706	$6,645	62%	73%	+$1,730	-$0	0.0%	$-598 (vs do-nothing +$675)
$108	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.50	6/10	$6,882	$9,050	61%	72%	+$1,524	-$0	0.0%	$-1,633 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$108	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	8/10	$7,250	$7,265	60%	72%	+$1,560	-$0	0.0%	$-1,153 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$107	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$7,500	$11,821	59%	75%	+$2,997	-$71	0.3%	$-2,013 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$106	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/10	$11,200	$17,674	59%	82%	+$7,202	-$365	1.3%	$-1,973 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$107	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$7,306	$9,474	59%	71%	+$1,525	-$0	0.0%	$-1,993 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$107	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	8/10	$7,650	$7,665	59%	71%	+$1,562	-$0	0.0%	$-1,633 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$106	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.35	4/10	$7,620	$11,941	57%	74%	+$2,620	-$431	1.5%	$-2,373 (vs do-nothing $-1,100)
$106	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	7/10	$6,956	$8,048	57%	71%	+$1,262	-$0	0.0%	$-2,078 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$106	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.35	6/10	$7,782	$9,950	57%	71%	+$1,553	-$46	0.2%	$-2,323 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$105	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	7/10	$7,306	$8,398	55%	70%	+$1,225	-$54	0.2%	$-2,498 (vs do-nothing $-1,225)
$105	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.80	6/10	$8,259	$10,427	55%	70%	+$1,556	-$376	1.4%	$-2,653 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$105	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	4/10	$8,520	$12,841	54%	72%	+$2,985	-$531	1.9%	$-2,473 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$105	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.05	2/10	$12,100	$18,574	54%	80%	+$7,240	-$475	1.7%	$-2,083 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$104	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.00	7/10	$7,875	$8,966	53%	69%	+$1,388	-$299	1.1%	$-2,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$104	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.25	5/10	$7,279	$10,524	53%	69%	+$1,276	-$588	2.1%	$-2,698 (vs do-nothing $-1,425)
$104	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/10	$9,000	$13,321	51%	71%	+$2,891	-$771	2.8%	$-2,713 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$103	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.50	6/10	$7,125	$9,293	51%	68%	+$1,199	-$556	2.0%	$-2,833 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$103	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.75	5/10	$7,721	$10,965	50%	68%	+$1,278	-$838	3.0%	$-2,948 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$104	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/10	$13,100	$19,574	49%	79%	+$7,259	-$575	2.1%	$-2,183 (vs do-nothing $-910)
$103	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/10	$6,930	$12,327	48%	70%	+$1,887	-$818	2.9%	$-2,593 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$103	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	1/10	$7,050	$14,600	44%	77%	+$3,579	-$338	1.2%	$-1,778 (vs do-nothing $-505)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:04