FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $104.22

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.12 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $104.22 UNDERWATER $4.71 (4.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.12 (banked floor $111.53) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$14,171/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,138/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,085/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,138/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,171/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.4 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.12 (probe: $113C 17d) still earns $8,382/mo (59% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$6,236

was $7,740 · 19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.12 → $111.53

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 51 · %B 54 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $120.16 (+15%) · daily UBB $114.58 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.12 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $114 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

71%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$5,150

Income / mo

$6,438

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $116 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,370

Income / mo

$23,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.38/sh now → $5.22 mid-life (likely $4.79–$9.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 277 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $119 (overshoots $2.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.04/sh	+$2,043 cycle +$4,413 [-$6…+$2,560] · 75% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.35/sh	+$1,353 cycle +$3,723 [-$1,125…+$2,011] · 63% credit	74% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.42/sh	+$416 cycle +$2,786 [-$1,959…+$851] · 47% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$126	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$36 cycle +$2,406 [-$2,697…+$595] · 39% credit	78% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$2.21/sh	-$2,213 cycle +$157 [-$5,351…-$1,777]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $2,370 debit $2,213 (93% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$157 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,633/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $122 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $122)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,320

Income / mo

$13,200

Buyback gross: $7.76/sh now → $5.49 mid-life (likely $4.87–$7.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 63 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $124 (overshoots $2.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$122	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.96/sh	+$1,963 cycle +$3,283 [+$1,043…+$2,641] · 81% credit	69% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$130	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.53/sh	+$532 cycle +$1,852 [-$727…+$1,326] · 62% credit	76% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.33/sh	+$333 cycle +$1,653 [-$901…+$894] · 51% credit	73% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.23/sh	+$226 cycle +$1,546 [-$1,073…+$998] · 51% credit	76% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.27/sh	-$1,268 cycle +$52 [-$2,771…-$594] · 22% credit	81% surv 75%
budget: banked $1,320 debit $1,268 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$52 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,754/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (61 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 61 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.540 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,805 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,703

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$127	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.78	10/10	$7,800	$5,662	94%	95%	+$5,870	-$0	0.0%	$-2,155 (vs do-nothing $-452)
$126	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.87	9/10	$7,830	$7,297	94%	94%	+$5,790	-$0	0.0%	$-2,029 (vs do-nothing $-326)
$125	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	8/10	$7,920	$8,992	93%	94%	+$5,791	-$0	0.0%	$-1,897 (vs do-nothing $-194)
$124	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.07	7/10	$7,490	$10,167	92%	93%	+$5,307	-$0	0.0%	$-1,816 (vs do-nothing $-113)
$123	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.19	6/10	$7,140	$11,422	91%	92%	+$4,949	-$0	0.0%	$-1,728 (vs do-nothing $-25)
$122	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	6/10	$7,920	$12,202	90%	91%	+$5,359	-$0	0.0%	$-1,650 (vs do-nothing +$53)
$121	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/10	$7,500	$13,387	89%	91%	+$5,010	-$0	0.0%	$-1,569 (vs do-nothing +$134)
$120	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	5/10	$8,100	$13,987	88%	90%	+$5,202	-$0	0.0%	$-1,509 (vs do-nothing +$194)
$119	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.73	5/10	$8,650	$14,537	86%	89%	+$5,283	-$0	0.0%	$-1,454 (vs do-nothing +$249)
$118	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.94	4/10	$7,760	$15,252	85%	88%	+$4,638	-$0	0.0%	$-1,420 (vs do-nothing +$283)
$117	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.14	4/10	$8,560	$16,052	83%	87%	+$4,949	-$0	0.0%	$-1,340 (vs do-nothing +$363)
$116	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.37	3/10	$7,110	$16,207	82%	86%	+$3,986	-$0	0.0%	$-1,362 (vs do-nothing +$341)
$119	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.53	10/10	$7,590	$5,452	81%	85%	+$3,313	-$0	0.0%	$-405 (vs do-nothing +$1,298)

Show 48 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$115	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.61	3/10	$7,830	$16,927	80%	84%	+$4,235	-$0	0.0%	$-1,290 (vs do-nothing +$413)
$117	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.80	9/10	$7,560	$7,027	78%	83%	+$2,797	-$0	0.0%	$-292 (vs do-nothing +$1,411)
$114	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.86	3/10	$8,580	$17,677	78%	83%	+$4,454	-$0	0.0%	$-1,215 (vs do-nothing +$488)
$116	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	8/10	$7,560	$8,632	77%	82%	+$2,863	-$0	0.0%	$-169 (vs do-nothing +$1,534)
$113	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	3/10	$9,300	$18,397	76%	82%	+$4,579	-$0	0.0%	$-1,178 (vs do-nothing +$525)
$115	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.40	7/10	$7,140	$9,817	75%	81%	+$2,589	-$0	0.0%	$-185 (vs do-nothing +$1,518)
$114	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.70	7/10	$7,770	$10,447	73%	80%	+$2,739	-$0	0.0%	$25 (vs do-nothing +$1,728)
$112	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	3/10	$10,350	$19,447	73%	81%	+$4,963	-$0	0.0%	$-1,373 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$115	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.15	10/10	$7,324	$5,186	73%	79%	+$2,401	-$0	0.0%	$1,215 (vs do-nothing +$2,918)
$114	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.45	10/10	$7,853	$5,715	72%	79%	+$2,501	-$0	0.0%	$1,515 (vs do-nothing +$3,218)
$113	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	6/10	$7,200	$11,482	72%	79%	+$2,442	-$0	0.0%	$-113 (vs do-nothing +$1,590)
$111	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	2/10	$7,400	$18,102	71%	79%	+$3,314	-$0	0.0%	$-1,633 (vs do-nothing +$70)
$113	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.75	9/10	$7,544	$7,011	70%	78%	+$2,311	-$0	0.0%	$1,357 (vs do-nothing +$3,060)
$112	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	6/10	$7,740	$12,022	70%	78%	+$2,500	-$0	0.0%	$-533 (vs do-nothing +$1,170)
$110	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/10	$8,100	$18,802	69%	78%	+$3,466	-$0	0.0%	$-1,763 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$112	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	8/10	$7,129	$8,201	69%	77%	+$2,081	-$0	0.0%	$457 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$111	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.55	6/10	$8,190	$12,472	68%	76%	+$2,429	-$0	0.0%	$-983 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$112	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.75	10/10	$7,188	$5,050	68%	76%	+$1,970	-$0	0.0%	$1,697 (vs do-nothing +$3,400)
$111	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.40	8/10	$7,624	$8,696	67%	76%	+$2,148	-$0	0.0%	$-63 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$109	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	2/10	$8,800	$19,502	66%	77%	+$3,562	-$0	0.0%	$-1,893 (vs do-nothing $-190)
$111	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.10	10/10	$7,625	$5,487	66%	75%	+$2,017	-$0	0.0%	$1,047 (vs do-nothing +$2,750)
$110	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/10	$7,500	$13,387	66%	75%	+$2,233	-$0	0.0%	$-1,378 (vs do-nothing +$325)
$110	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.80	7/10	$7,165	$9,842	65%	75%	+$1,975	-$0	0.0%	$-688 (vs do-nothing +$1,015)
$110	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.45	9/10	$7,256	$6,723	64%	75%	+$1,836	-$0	0.0%	$187 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$109	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	5/10	$8,025	$13,912	64%	74%	+$2,256	-$0	0.0%	$-1,703 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$108	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/10	$9,500	$20,202	63%	75%	+$3,597	-$74	0.3%	$-2,023 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$109	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.10	7/10	$7,535	$10,212	63%	74%	+$1,919	-$0	0.0%	$-1,178 (vs do-nothing +$525)
$109	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	9/10	$7,706	$7,173	63%	74%	+$1,892	-$0	0.0%	$-353 (vs do-nothing +$1,350)
$108	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	5/10	$8,700	$14,587	62%	73%	+$2,393	-$0	0.0%	$-1,978 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$108	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.50	7/10	$8,029	$10,706	61%	73%	+$1,959	-$0	0.0%	$-1,598 (vs do-nothing +$105)
$108	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	8/10	$7,250	$8,322	61%	73%	+$1,711	-$0	0.0%	$-983 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$107	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$7,500	$14,992	60%	72%	+$1,995	-$0	0.0%	$-2,143 (vs do-nothing $-440)
$107	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$7,306	$11,588	59%	72%	+$1,688	-$0	0.0%	$-1,973 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$107	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	8/10	$7,650	$8,722	59%	72%	+$1,719	-$0	0.0%	$-1,463 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$106	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.35	4/10	$7,620	$15,112	57%	71%	+$1,625	-$307	1.1%	$-2,503 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$106	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.95	8/10	$7,950	$9,022	57%	71%	+$1,606	-$0	0.0%	$-2,023 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$106	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.35	6/10	$7,782	$12,064	57%	71%	+$1,725	-$0	0.0%	$-2,303 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$105	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	7/10	$7,306	$9,983	55%	70%	+$1,375	-$0	0.0%	$-2,403 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$105	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.80	6/10	$8,259	$12,541	55%	70%	+$1,736	-$191	0.7%	$-2,633 (vs do-nothing $-930)
$105	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	4/10	$8,520	$16,012	55%	70%	+$2,003	-$407	1.5%	$-2,603 (vs do-nothing $-900)
$104	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.00	7/10	$7,875	$10,552	54%	70%	+$1,544	-$83	0.3%	$-2,648 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$104	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.25	5/10	$7,279	$13,166	53%	69%	+$1,434	-$434	1.6%	$-2,753 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$104	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/10	$9,000	$16,492	53%	69%	+$1,929	-$647	2.3%	$-2,843 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$103	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.50	6/10	$7,125	$11,407	52%	69%	+$1,339	-$371	1.3%	$-2,813 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)
$103	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.75	5/10	$7,721	$13,608	51%	69%	+$1,443	-$684	2.5%	$-3,003 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$104	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/10	$13,100	$23,802	50%	79%	+$7,400	-$514	1.8%	$-2,463 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$103	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	4/10	$9,240	$16,732	50%	68%	+$1,582	-$967	3.5%	$-3,163 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$103	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.05	2/10	$14,100	$24,802	49%	69%	+$3,888	-$614	2.2%	$-2,563 (vs do-nothing $-860)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:59