FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $103.46

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.65 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $103.46 UNDERWATER $5.47 (5.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.65 (banked floor $112.07) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,129/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,448/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-8,950	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,565/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,448/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,129/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.65 (probe: $114C 17d) still earns $6,794/mo (52% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$7,447

was $8,950 · 17% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.65 → $112.07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 45 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 50 · %B 48 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $120.10 (+16%) · daily UBB $114.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$17 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.65 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $114 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

70%

Touch odds

66%

Per cycle

$3,850

Income / mo

$6,794

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.56/sh	+$564 cycle +$4,414 [-$632…+$193] · 32% credit	64% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.36/sh	+$362 cycle +$4,212 [-$871…-$38] · 24% credit	65% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	16d left	-$3.55/sh	-$3,547 cycle +$303 [-$5,839…-$4,419]	74% surv 70%
budget: banked $3,850 debit $3,547 (92% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,896/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $115 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$2,250

Income / mo

$22,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.17/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $5.49–$10.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 830 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $120 (overshoots $5.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.79/sh	+$1,788 cycle +$4,038 [+$279…+$2,261] · 79% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.33/sh	+$1,331 cycle +$3,581 [-$478…+$1,879] · 65% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.35/sh	+$350 cycle +$2,600 [-$2,863…+$443] · 31% credit	71% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.01/sh	+$14 cycle +$2,264 [-$2,086…+$262] · 31% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.24/sh	-$2,242 cycle +$8 [-$5,489…-$2,188]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $2,250 debit $2,242 (100% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$8 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,863/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $118 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $118)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,660

Income / mo

$16,600

Buyback gross: $7.36/sh now → $5.21 mid-life (likely $5.48–$9.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 581 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $123 (overshoots $5.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.76/sh	+$1,762 cycle +$3,422 [+$524…+$2,282] · 83% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$123	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.28/sh	+$1,277 cycle +$2,937 [-$168…+$1,866] · 70% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$122	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.34/sh	+$335 cycle +$1,995 [-$1,389…+$712] · 40% credit	70% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.33/sh	+$326 cycle +$1,986 [-$2,488…+$530] · 35% credit	71% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.53/sh	-$1,528 cycle +$132 [-$4,061…-$1,257] · 6% credit	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,660 debit $1,528 (92% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$132 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,017/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (64 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 64 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.896 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,126 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $231

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$126	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.71	10/10	$7,100	$4,652	97%	98%	+$6,608	-$0	0.0%	$886 (vs do-nothing +$656)
$123	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	7/10	$6,930	$8,712	96%	96%	+$6,219	-$0	0.0%	$886 (vs do-nothing +$655)
$120	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.36	5/10	$6,800	$11,402	93%	94%	+$5,795	-$0	0.0%	$883 (vs do-nothing +$653)
$125	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.81	9/10	$7,290	$6,252	92%	92%	+$3,995	-$0	0.0%	$911 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$119	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/10	$7,500	$12,102	92%	93%	+$6,251	-$0	0.0%	$953 (vs do-nothing +$723)
$124	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.88	8/10	$7,040	$7,412	91%	92%	+$3,678	-$0	0.0%	$891 (vs do-nothing +$660)
$118	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.66	4/10	$6,640	$12,652	90%	93%	+$5,404	-$0	0.0%	$873 (vs do-nothing +$642)
$122	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.10	6/10	$6,600	$9,792	89%	90%	+$3,419	-$0	0.0%	$858 (vs do-nothing +$627)
$121	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.22	6/10	$7,320	$10,512	88%	89%	+$3,522	-$0	0.0%	$930 (vs do-nothing +$699)
$116	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.03	4/10	$8,120	$14,132	87%	91%	+$6,260	-$0	0.0%	$1,021 (vs do-nothing +$790)
$115	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.25	3/10	$6,750	$14,172	85%	89%	+$5,052	-$0	0.0%	$889 (vs do-nothing +$659)
$117	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	4/10	$7,280	$13,292	83%	85%	+$2,992	-$0	0.0%	$937 (vs do-nothing +$706)
$117	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.59	9/10	$6,993	$5,955	79%	83%	+$2,265	-$0	0.0%	$2,513 (vs do-nothing +$2,282)

Show 51 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$118	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.37	10/10	$7,110	$4,662	78%	81%	+$684	-$0	0.0%	$2,546 (vs do-nothing +$2,316)
$114	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.45	3/10	$7,350	$14,772	78%	82%	+$2,738	-$0	0.0%	$949 (vs do-nothing +$719)
$113	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.71	3/10	$8,130	$15,552	76%	81%	+$2,855	-$0	0.0%	$834 (vs do-nothing +$603)
$116	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$6,768	$7,140	76%	79%	+$658	-$0	0.0%	$2,443 (vs do-nothing +$2,212)
$115	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.05	8/10	$7,320	$7,692	74%	78%	+$671	-$0	0.0%	$2,627 (vs do-nothing +$2,396)
$110	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	2/10	$7,000	$15,832	74%	83%	+$4,210	-$29	0.1%	$191 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$112	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.97	3/10	$8,910	$16,332	74%	79%	+$2,975	-$0	0.0%	$612 (vs do-nothing +$381)
$114	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.20	7/10	$6,720	$8,502	73%	78%	+$395	-$0	0.0%	$2,433 (vs do-nothing +$2,202)
$111	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	3/10	$9,600	$17,022	72%	78%	+$2,937	-$0	0.0%	$381 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$113	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.45	7/10	$7,245	$9,027	71%	77%	+$378	-$0	0.0%	$2,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,925)
$114	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.85	10/10	$6,794	$4,346	70%	74%	$-1,818	-$0	0.0%	$4,026 (vs do-nothing +$3,796)
$112	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.85	6/10	$6,930	$10,122	69%	76%	+$547	-$0	0.0%	$1,521 (vs do-nothing +$1,290)
$113	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	10/10	$7,235	$4,787	68%	74%	$-1,895	-$0	0.0%	$3,631 (vs do-nothing +$3,400)
$111	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	6/10	$7,290	$10,482	68%	75%	+$377	-$0	0.0%	$1,041 (vs do-nothing +$810)
$112	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	9/10	$6,988	$5,950	67%	73%	$-1,720	-$0	0.0%	$2,661 (vs do-nothing +$2,430)
$109	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.90	2/10	$7,800	$16,632	67%	76%	+$2,195	-$149	0.5%	$71 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$110	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.40	5/10	$6,600	$11,202	66%	74%	+$369	-$0	0.0%	$581 (vs do-nothing +$350)
$111	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.75	8/10	$6,706	$7,078	66%	72%	$-1,491	-$0	0.0%	$1,871 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$108	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$8,500	$17,332	65%	75%	+$2,308	-$279	1.0%	$-59 (vs do-nothing $-290)
$107	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	2/10	$9,100	$17,932	65%	78%	+$4,612	-$419	1.5%	$-199 (vs do-nothing $-430)
$110	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.05	8/10	$7,129	$7,501	64%	71%	$-1,546	-$0	0.0%	$1,311 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$109	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,050	$11,652	64%	73%	+$318	-$0	0.0%	$231 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$6,638	$5,599	64%	74%	+$1,269	-$0	0.0%	$1,311 (vs do-nothing +$1,080)
$110	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$7,000	$4,552	64%	70%	$-2,724	-$0	0.0%	$2,131 (vs do-nothing +$1,900)
$109	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.40	7/10	$6,671	$8,452	63%	71%	$-1,358	-$0	0.0%	$721 (vs do-nothing +$490)
$108	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	5/10	$7,800	$12,402	63%	72%	+$536	-$223	0.8%	$-19 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$108	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.30	9/10	$7,088	$6,049	62%	73%	+$1,319	-$0	0.0%	$771 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$108	17d	7 Aug 2026	$5.80	7/10	$7,165	$8,946	62%	70%	$-1,322	-$0	0.0%	$301 (vs do-nothing +$70)
$107	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.55	4/10	$6,660	$12,672	61%	71%	+$398	-$438	1.6%	$-229 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$107	24d	14 Aug 2026	$6.70	8/10	$6,700	$7,072	61%	73%	+$1,196	-$0	0.0%	$231 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$107	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.15	7/10	$7,597	$9,379	60%	69%	$-1,368	-$347	1.2%	$-154 (vs do-nothing $-385)
$106	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	2/10	$9,900	$18,732	60%	72%	+$2,268	-$539	1.9%	$-319 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$106	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/10	$7,140	$13,152	59%	70%	+$400	-$678	2.4%	$-469 (vs do-nothing $-700)
$106	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.60	6/10	$6,988	$10,180	59%	68%	$-1,124	-$627	2.3%	$-429 (vs do-nothing $-660)
$106	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.10	8/10	$7,100	$7,472	59%	72%	+$1,199	-$436	1.6%	$-249 (vs do-nothing $-480)
$105	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.05	6/10	$7,465	$10,656	57%	68%	$-1,094	-$957	3.4%	$-759 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$105	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	2/10	$10,700	$19,532	57%	70%	+$2,121	-$659	2.4%	$-439 (vs do-nothing $-670)
$105	24d	14 Aug 2026	$7.50	8/10	$7,500	$7,872	57%	71%	+$1,180	-$916	3.3%	$-729 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$105	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.40	4/10	$7,680	$13,692	57%	69%	+$436	-$898	3.2%	$-689 (vs do-nothing $-920)
$104	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.45	5/10	$6,574	$11,175	56%	67%	$-946	-$1,098	3.9%	$-894 (vs do-nothing $-1,125)
$103	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.45	7/10	$7,394	$9,175	55%	66%	$-1,896	-$1,537	5.5%	$-1,344 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$104	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.00	7/10	$7,000	$8,782	55%	70%	+$1,083	-$1,152	4.1%	$-959 (vs do-nothing $-1,190)
$104	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	4/10	$8,160	$14,172	55%	68%	+$384	-$1,138	4.1%	$-929 (vs do-nothing $-1,160)
$103	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.90	5/10	$6,971	$11,572	54%	66%	$-952	-$1,373	4.9%	$-1,169 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$104	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	2/10	$11,600	$20,432	54%	74%	+$4,731	-$769	2.8%	$-549 (vs do-nothing $-780)
$102	24d	14 Aug 2026	$8.95	6/10	$6,712	$9,904	54%	66%	$-1,598	-$1,617	5.8%	$-1,419 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$103	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	4/10	$8,520	$14,532	53%	67%	+$184	-$1,418	5.1%	$-1,209 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$102	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.40	5/10	$7,412	$12,013	53%	66%	$-930	-$1,623	5.8%	$-1,419 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$103	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	2/10	$12,500	$21,332	52%	68%	+$2,254	-$879	3.2%	$-659 (vs do-nothing $-890)
$102	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.60	3/10	$6,840	$14,262	51%	66%	+$147	-$1,214	4.4%	$-999 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$102	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.70	1/10	$6,700	$16,942	49%	67%	+$1,077	-$495	1.8%	$-269 (vs do-nothing $-500)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 21:43