FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $102.05

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.59 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $102.05 UNDERWATER $6.89 (6.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $112.59 (banked floor $111.01) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$14,634/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,372/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,175	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,317/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,372/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,634/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $112.59 (probe: $113C 16d) still earns $7,219/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$7,672

was $9,175 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$112.59 → $111.01

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 42 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.97 (+18%) · daily UBB $114.28 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $112.59 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $113 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,580

Income / mo

$38,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.11/sh now → $5.03 mid-life (likely $5.74–$11.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 669 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $119 (overshoots $5.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.11/sh	+$2,113 cycle +$4,693 [+$724…+$2,179] · 83% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.92/sh	+$1,918 cycle +$4,498 [-$1,396…+$1,761] · 60% credit	69% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$122	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$94 cycle +$2,674 [-$2,918…-$33] · 24% credit	76% surv 69%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.02/sh	+$17 cycle +$2,597 [-$2,298…-$79] · 20% credit	74% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.27/sh	-$2,270 cycle +$310 [-$6,505…-$2,615]	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,580 debit $2,270 (88% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$310 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,766/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $125 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,220

Income / mo

$4,067

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.04/sh now → $6.39 mid-life (likely $5.27–$8.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 431 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $129 (overshoots $3.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.92/sh	+$923 cycle +$2,143 [+$693…+$2,380] · 94% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.44/sh	+$439 cycle +$1,659 [+$154…+$1,748] · 80% credit	69% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$128	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.74/sh	+$739 cycle +$1,959 [-$302…+$2,102] · 69% credit	68% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$281 cycle +$1,501 [-$827…+$1,601] · 57% credit	69% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	7 Aug 2026	12d left	-$1.19/sh	-$1,186 cycle +$34 [-$1,883…-$20] · 25% credit	73% surv 63%
budget: banked $1,220 debit $1,186 (97% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$34 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $13,019/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $119 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$1,470

Income / mo

$22,050

Buyback gross: $7.49/sh now → $5.30 mid-life (likely $5.86–$10.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 327 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $124 (overshoots $5.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.05/sh	+$2,052 cycle +$3,522 [+$972…+$2,466] · 89% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$123	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.13/sh	+$1,134 cycle +$2,604 [-$718…+$1,364] · 63% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.35/sh	+$354 cycle +$1,824 [-$1,415…+$436] · 44% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.42/sh	+$425 cycle +$1,895 [-$2,723…+$230] · 34% credit	71% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.42/sh	-$1,416 cycle +$54 [-$4,465…-$1,599]	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,470 debit $1,416 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$54 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,294/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (65 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 65 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.884 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,323 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,557

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/10	$8,820	$12,073	98%	98%	+$8,657	-$0	0.0%	$1,581 (vs do-nothing +$25)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	4/10	$9,720	$12,973	97%	98%	+$9,487	-$0	0.0%	$1,641 (vs do-nothing +$85)
$127	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.65	8/10	$7,800	$7,303	96%	96%	+$6,437	-$0	0.0%	$950 (vs do-nothing $-607)
$126	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.73	7/10	$7,665	$8,105	95%	96%	+$6,246	-$0	0.0%	$1,082 (vs do-nothing $-475)
$125	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.83	6/10	$7,470	$8,848	95%	95%	+$6,025	-$0	0.0%	$1,210 (vs do-nothing $-347)
$124	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	6/10	$8,280	$9,658	94%	95%	+$6,566	-$0	0.0%	$1,264 (vs do-nothing $-293)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.98	5/10	$7,350	$9,665	93%	94%	+$5,658	-$0	0.0%	$1,342 (vs do-nothing $-214)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	5/10	$8,100	$10,415	93%	94%	+$6,100	-$0	0.0%	$1,392 (vs do-nothing $-164)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.24	4/10	$7,440	$10,693	92%	93%	+$5,553	-$0	0.0%	$1,489 (vs do-nothing $-67)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.38	4/10	$8,280	$11,533	91%	92%	+$6,059	-$0	0.0%	$1,545 (vs do-nothing $-11)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.79	3/10	$8,055	$12,245	87%	89%	+$5,376	-$0	0.0%	$1,671 (vs do-nothing +$115)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.96	3/10	$8,820	$13,010	86%	89%	+$5,697	-$0	0.0%	$1,722 (vs do-nothing +$166)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.16	3/10	$9,720	$13,910	84%	87%	+$6,088	-$0	0.0%	$1,782 (vs do-nothing +$226)

Show 52 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$118	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	10/10	$7,333	$4,961	83%	86%	+$3,079	-$0	0.0%	$2,348 (vs do-nothing +$792)
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	3/10	$10,620	$14,810	82%	86%	+$6,408	-$0	0.0%	$1,842 (vs do-nothing +$286)
$117	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.40	10/10	$8,000	$5,628	81%	85%	+$3,266	-$0	0.0%	$2,548 (vs do-nothing +$992)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.58	2/10	$7,740	$12,868	81%	85%	+$4,493	-$0	0.0%	$1,791 (vs do-nothing +$234)
$116	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.60	9/10	$7,800	$6,365	80%	84%	+$3,087	-$0	0.0%	$2,629 (vs do-nothing +$1,073)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.83	2/10	$8,490	$13,618	79%	84%	+$4,746	-$0	0.0%	$1,723 (vs do-nothing +$166)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$7,520	$7,023	79%	83%	+$2,850	-$0	0.0%	$2,686 (vs do-nothing +$1,129)
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	8/10	$8,000	$7,503	77%	82%	+$2,846	-$0	0.0%	$2,830 (vs do-nothing +$1,273)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/10	$9,150	$14,278	77%	83%	+$4,846	-$0	0.0%	$1,567 (vs do-nothing +$10)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	7/10	$7,583	$8,024	76%	81%	+$2,633	-$0	0.0%	$2,846 (vs do-nothing +$1,289)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	2/10	$10,200	$15,328	74%	82%	+$5,267	-$0	0.0%	$1,437 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	7/10	$8,167	$8,607	74%	80%	+$2,659	-$0	0.0%	$2,607 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$112	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	10/10	$7,687	$5,315	72%	79%	+$2,235	-$0	0.0%	$3,657 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/10	$7,600	$8,978	72%	78%	+$2,360	-$0	0.0%	$2,037 (vs do-nothing +$480)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/10	$10,950	$16,078	72%	80%	+$5,313	-$0	0.0%	$1,287 (vs do-nothing $-270)
$111	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	9/10	$7,425	$5,990	71%	78%	+$2,074	-$0	0.0%	$2,817 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	6/10	$8,200	$9,578	70%	78%	+$2,553	-$0	0.0%	$1,617 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.90	2/10	$11,700	$16,828	70%	79%	+$5,279	-$138	0.5%	$1,137 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$110	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.75	9/10	$8,016	$6,581	69%	77%	+$2,188	-$0	0.0%	$2,232 (vs do-nothing +$675)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/10	$7,417	$9,732	68%	76%	+$2,213	-$0	0.0%	$1,282 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.00	8/10	$7,500	$7,003	67%	76%	+$1,865	-$0	0.0%	$1,557 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$12,750	$17,878	67%	77%	+$5,458	-$268	1.0%	$1,007 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,833	$10,149	66%	75%	+$2,118	-$0	0.0%	$907 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.35	8/10	$8,025	$7,528	65%	75%	+$1,903	-$0	0.0%	$1,037 (vs do-nothing $-520)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	5/10	$8,417	$10,732	64%	74%	+$2,150	-$271	1.0%	$582 (vs do-nothing $-975)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.60	2/10	$13,800	$18,928	64%	76%	+$5,547	-$398	1.4%	$877 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.75	7/10	$7,547	$7,987	64%	74%	+$1,736	-$0	0.0%	$682 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$108	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.95	10/10	$7,761	$5,389	64%	71%	$-1,107	-$0	0.0%	$1,507 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	5/10	$9,083	$11,399	62%	73%	+$2,225	-$571	2.0%	$282 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$107	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.30	9/10	$7,396	$5,961	62%	70%	$-1,015	-$0	0.0%	$927 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.10	7/10	$8,006	$8,447	62%	73%	+$1,712	-$344	1.2%	$227 (vs do-nothing $-1,330)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	1/10	$7,575	$13,640	61%	75%	+$2,919	-$254	0.9%	$1,162 (vs do-nothing $-395)
$106	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.65	9/10	$7,807	$6,372	61%	70%	$-1,052	-$0	0.0%	$342 (vs do-nothing $-1,215)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/10	$7,933	$11,186	60%	72%	+$1,940	-$657	2.4%	$337 (vs do-nothing $-1,220)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.60	6/10	$7,425	$8,803	60%	72%	+$1,589	-$595	2.1%	$117 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.10	8/10	$7,409	$6,912	59%	69%	$-880	-$393	1.4%	$37 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	1/10	$8,100	$14,165	58%	73%	+$2,865	-$319	1.1%	$1,097 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.50	8/10	$7,826	$7,329	58%	68%	$-894	-$873	3.1%	$-443 (vs do-nothing $-2,000)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$11,586	58%	71%	+$1,799	-$937	3.4%	$57 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$7,762	$9,140	58%	71%	+$1,459	-$1,015	3.6%	$-303 (vs do-nothing $-1,860)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.10	7/10	$7,396	$7,836	57%	68%	$-627	-$1,044	3.7%	$-473 (vs do-nothing $-2,030)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.35	6/10	$8,269	$9,647	56%	70%	+$1,471	-$1,345	4.8%	$-633 (vs do-nothing $-2,190)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,186	56%	70%	+$1,823	-$1,157	4.2%	$-163 (vs do-nothing $-1,720)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$14,765	55%	72%	+$2,833	-$379	1.4%	$1,037 (vs do-nothing $-520)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.40	7/10	$7,670	$8,110	55%	67%	$-762	-$1,534	5.5%	$-963 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.85	7/10	$8,080	$8,521	54%	66%	$-775	-$1,919	6.9%	$-1,348 (vs do-nothing $-2,905)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.85	5/10	$7,359	$9,675	54%	69%	+$1,260	-$1,371	4.9%	$-518 (vs do-nothing $-2,075)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	4/10	$9,533	$12,786	53%	69%	+$1,810	-$1,377	4.9%	$-383 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.35	1/10	$9,525	$15,590	52%	71%	+$2,972	-$424	1.5%	$992 (vs do-nothing $-565)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.30	5/10	$7,781	$10,097	52%	68%	+$1,225	-$1,646	5.9%	$-793 (vs do-nothing $-2,350)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.65	3/10	$7,650	$11,840	51%	68%	+$1,371	-$1,183	4.2%	$-48 (vs do-nothing $-1,605)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$16,190	49%	69%	+$2,832	-$484	1.7%	$932 (vs do-nothing $-625)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 03:37