FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $102.34

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.20 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $102.34 UNDERWATER $6.59 (6.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.20 (banked floor $111.62) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,809/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,390/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,905/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,390/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,809/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.20 (probe: $113C 16d) still earns $7,125/mo (52% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$8,007

was $9,510 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.20 → $111.62

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 48 · %B 44 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.97 (+17%) · daily UBB $114.28 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.20 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $115 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

75%

Touch odds

54%

Per cycle

$3,850

Income / mo

$5,022

💰 Richer · sell 10 × $125 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,250

Income / mo

$4,167

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.73/sh now → $6.18 mid-life (likely $5.27–$8.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $128 (overshoots $3.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.87/sh	+$871 cycle +$2,121 [+$351…+$1,926] · 84% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.29/sh	+$294 cycle +$1,544 [-$286…+$1,249] · 67% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.20/sh	+$202 cycle +$1,452 [-$546…+$1,370] · 62% credit	71% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.21/sh	-$1,213 cycle +$37 [-$2,130…-$314] · 21% credit	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,250 debit $1,213 (97% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$37 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,276/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

95%

Touch odds

10%

Per cycle

$2,360

Income / mo

$35,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.77/sh now → $4.79 mid-life (likely $4.92–$9.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $117 (overshoots $2.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.19/sh	+$2,191 cycle +$4,551 [-$307…+$2,327] · 72% credit	70% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$119	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.78/sh	+$1,780 cycle +$4,140 [-$1,477…+$1,905] · 65% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.34/sh	+$337 cycle +$2,697 [-$3,012…+$260] · 34% credit	73% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$51 cycle +$2,411 [-$3,506…+$75] · 28% credit	77% surv 70%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$2.34/sh	-$2,341 cycle +$19 [-$6,339…-$2,429]	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,360 debit $2,341 (99% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$19 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (67 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 67 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.886 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,623 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $867

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$127	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.68	7/10	$7,140	$7,535	100%	100%	+$7,139	-$0	0.0%	$815 (vs do-nothing $-52)
$126	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.72	7/10	$7,560	$7,955	100%	100%	+$7,558	-$0	0.0%	$843 (vs do-nothing $-24)
$125	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.85	6/10	$7,650	$8,973	100%	100%	+$7,647	-$0	0.0%	$924 (vs do-nothing +$58)
$124	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	6/10	$8,100	$9,423	100%	100%	+$8,095	-$0	0.0%	$954 (vs do-nothing +$88)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.00	5/10	$7,500	$9,751	100%	100%	+$7,493	-$0	0.0%	$990 (vs do-nothing +$123)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.09	5/10	$8,175	$10,426	100%	100%	+$8,163	-$0	0.0%	$1,035 (vs do-nothing +$168)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	4/10	$7,200	$10,379	99%	100%	+$7,185	-$0	0.0%	$1,045 (vs do-nothing +$178)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.38	4/10	$8,280	$11,459	99%	100%	+$8,254	-$0	0.0%	$1,117 (vs do-nothing +$250)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/10	$8,820	$11,999	99%	99%	+$8,778	-$0	0.0%	$1,153 (vs do-nothing +$286)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.63	3/10	$7,335	$11,442	99%	99%	+$7,285	-$0	0.0%	$1,130 (vs do-nothing +$263)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/10	$8,190	$12,297	98%	99%	+$8,110	-$0	0.0%	$1,187 (vs do-nothing +$320)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/10	$8,865	$12,972	97%	99%	+$8,741	-$0	0.0%	$1,232 (vs do-nothing +$365)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/10	$9,765	$13,872	96%	98%	+$9,575	-$0	0.0%	$1,292 (vs do-nothing +$425)

Show 54 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	2/10	$7,080	$12,115	95%	98%	+$6,888	-$0	0.0%	$1,188 (vs do-nothing +$321)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.59	2/10	$7,770	$12,805	94%	97%	+$7,486	-$0	0.0%	$1,195 (vs do-nothing +$328)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	2/10	$8,610	$13,645	92%	96%	+$8,195	-$0	0.0%	$1,051 (vs do-nothing +$184)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/10	$9,300	$14,335	90%	95%	+$8,703	-$0	0.0%	$897 (vs do-nothing +$30)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	2/10	$10,200	$15,235	87%	94%	+$9,357	-$0	0.0%	$757 (vs do-nothing $-110)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/10	$10,950	$15,985	84%	93%	+$9,779	-$109	0.4%	$607 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$118	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.22	10/10	$7,400	$5,010	82%	85%	+$2,978	-$0	0.0%	$2,333 (vs do-nothing +$1,466)
$117	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/10	$7,260	$5,799	81%	84%	+$2,834	-$0	0.0%	$2,366 (vs do-nothing +$1,499)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/10	$12,000	$17,035	80%	92%	+$10,400	-$239	0.9%	$477 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$116	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.61	8/10	$6,960	$6,427	80%	83%	+$2,593	-$0	0.0%	$2,352 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$7,520	$6,987	78%	82%	+$2,679	-$0	0.0%	$2,520 (vs do-nothing +$1,653)
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	7/10	$7,000	$7,395	77%	81%	+$2,313	-$0	0.0%	$2,439 (vs do-nothing +$1,572)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$12,750	$17,785	76%	90%	+$10,600	-$389	1.4%	$327 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	7/10	$7,583	$7,978	75%	80%	+$2,404	-$0	0.0%	$2,477 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$113	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	10/10	$7,125	$4,735	73%	79%	+$1,951	-$0	0.0%	$3,717 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	6/10	$7,000	$8,323	73%	79%	+$2,104	-$0	0.0%	$1,797 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$112	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.05	10/10	$7,594	$5,204	72%	78%	+$1,953	-$0	0.0%	$2,967 (vs do-nothing +$2,100)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/10	$7,600	$8,923	71%	78%	+$2,208	-$0	0.0%	$1,377 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/10	$6,975	$12,939	71%	89%	+$5,554	-$255	0.9%	$537 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$111	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	9/10	$7,341	$5,879	70%	77%	+$1,812	-$0	0.0%	$2,127 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	6/10	$8,200	$9,523	70%	77%	+$2,272	-$0	0.0%	$957 (vs do-nothing +$90)
$110	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	8/10	$6,975	$6,442	68%	76%	+$1,628	-$0	0.0%	$1,427 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/10	$7,250	$9,501	68%	76%	+$1,828	-$0	0.0%	$567 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	8/10	$7,425	$6,892	67%	75%	+$1,615	-$0	0.0%	$867 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	1/10	$7,575	$13,539	66%	87%	+$5,727	-$315	1.1%	$477 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$109	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$7,304	$4,915	66%	75%	+$1,523	-$0	0.0%	$1,517 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,833	$10,084	66%	75%	+$1,893	-$248	0.9%	$242 (vs do-nothing $-625)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	8/10	$7,875	$7,342	65%	74%	+$1,570	-$0	0.0%	$307 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$108	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$6,926	$5,465	64%	74%	+$1,335	-$0	0.0%	$822 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	5/10	$8,500	$10,751	64%	74%	+$2,003	-$548	2.0%	$-58 (vs do-nothing $-925)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,350	$7,745	63%	73%	+$1,363	-$417	1.5%	$-78 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$107	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.35	9/10	$7,454	$5,993	63%	73%	+$1,452	-$0	0.0%	$327 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$7,267	$10,446	62%	73%	+$1,591	-$698	2.5%	$-133 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	7/10	$7,941	$8,335	61%	72%	+$1,470	-$802	2.9%	$-463 (vs do-nothing $-1,330)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/10	$8,025	$13,989	61%	85%	+$5,660	-$385	1.4%	$407 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$106	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	9/10	$7,748	$6,286	61%	72%	+$1,311	-$536	1.9%	$-348 (vs do-nothing $-1,215)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$7,733	$10,913	59%	71%	+$1,547	-$958	3.4%	$-393 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	6/10	$7,369	$8,692	59%	71%	+$1,375	-$988	3.5%	$-573 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.05	8/10	$7,357	$6,823	59%	72%	+$1,227	-$917	3.3%	$-653 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$11,513	57%	73%	+$2,840	-$1,178	4.2%	$-613 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	8/10	$7,722	$7,188	57%	71%	+$1,162	-$1,437	5.2%	$-1,173 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	6/10	$7,875	$9,198	57%	70%	+$1,407	-$1,318	4.7%	$-903 (vs do-nothing $-1,770)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$7,562	55%	69%	+$1,030	-$1,642	5.9%	$-1,303 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$14,664	55%	83%	+$5,721	-$440	1.6%	$352 (vs do-nothing $-515)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	6/10	$8,156	$9,479	55%	69%	+$1,186	-$1,768	6.3%	$-1,353 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,113	55%	72%	+$2,855	-$1,398	5.0%	$-833 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.25	7/10	$7,533	$7,927	53%	69%	+$978	-$2,062	7.4%	$-1,723 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$9,470	53%	68%	+$970	-$1,748	6.3%	$-1,258 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$7,150	$11,257	52%	70%	+$2,120	-$1,214	4.4%	$-573 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.75	7/10	$7,989	$8,384	51%	68%	+$997	-$2,412	8.7%	$-2,073 (vs do-nothing $-2,940)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	5/10	$7,687	$9,939	51%	67%	+$975	-$1,998	7.2%	$-1,508 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	1/10	$9,375	$15,339	49%	81%	+$5,680	-$495	1.8%	$297 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/10	$7,450	$11,557	49%	69%	+$1,917	-$1,424	5.1%	$-783 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$16,089	43%	80%	+$5,609	-$545	2.0%	$247 (vs do-nothing $-620)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 13:27