FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $102.78

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.60 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $102.78 UNDERWATER $6.15 (5.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.60 (banked floor $112.03) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,594/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,390/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,797/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,390/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,594/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.60 (probe: $114C 16d) still earns $6,656/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$8,007

was $9,510 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.60 → $112.03

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 54 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 46 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.97 (+17%) · daily UBB $114.30 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.60 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,360

Income / mo

$35,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.79/sh now → $4.80 mid-life (likely $5.62–$10.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 708 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $120 (overshoots $5.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.96/sh	+$1,961 cycle +$4,321 [+$1,575…+$2,492] · 100% credit	70% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.74/sh	+$1,745 cycle +$4,105 [-$392…+$1,662] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.30/sh	+$305 cycle +$2,665 [-$1,742…+$154] · 31% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.02/sh	+$18 cycle +$2,378 [-$2,838…-$214] · 19% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.03/sh	-$2,030 cycle +$330 [-$5,969…-$2,463]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $2,360 debit $2,030 (86% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$330 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,782/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $126 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $126)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$3,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.61/sh now → $6.09 mid-life (likely $5.09–$8.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 263 simulated challenges: the $126 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $130 (overshoots $3.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$126	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.78/sh	+$779 cycle +$1,679 [+$140…+$1,928] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$407 cycle +$1,307 [-$304…+$1,519] · 68% credit	68% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$129	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$305 cycle +$1,205 [-$610…+$1,647] · 62% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$46 cycle +$946 [-$883…+$1,362] · 54% credit	72% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.71/sh	-$711 cycle +$189 [-$1,843…+$521] · 33% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $900 debit $711 (79% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$189 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,970/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $128 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $128)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$600

Income / mo

$9,000

Buyback gross: $7.62/sh now → $5.39 mid-life (likely $5.21–$11.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 104 simulated challenges: the $128 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $134 (overshoots $6.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.72/sh	+$1,717 cycle +$2,317 [+$1,589…+$2,737] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$1,029 cycle +$1,629 [-$1,203…+$1,842] · 61% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$135	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.30/sh	+$304 cycle +$904 [-$2,184…+$1,048] · 48% credit	74% surv 66%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$132 cycle +$732 [-$1,761…+$744] · 47% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$138	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.58/sh	-$579 cycle +$21 [-$3,452…+$77] · 27% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $600 debit $579 (97% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,564/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (69 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 69 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.886 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,587 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $426

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$128	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	8/10	$7,200	$6,667	100%	100%	+$7,199	-$0	0.0%	$627 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$127	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.68	7/10	$7,140	$7,535	100%	100%	+$7,139	-$0	0.0%	$658 (vs do-nothing +$231)
$126	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.72	7/10	$7,560	$7,955	100%	100%	+$7,557	-$0	0.0%	$686 (vs do-nothing +$259)
$125	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.85	6/10	$7,650	$8,973	100%	100%	+$7,646	-$0	0.0%	$727 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$124	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	6/10	$8,100	$9,423	100%	100%	+$8,093	-$0	0.0%	$757 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.00	5/10	$7,500	$9,751	100%	100%	+$7,491	-$0	0.0%	$752 (vs do-nothing +$325)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.09	5/10	$8,175	$10,426	100%	100%	+$8,159	-$0	0.0%	$797 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	4/10	$7,200	$10,379	99%	100%	+$7,179	-$0	0.0%	$767 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.38	4/10	$8,280	$11,459	99%	99%	+$8,246	-$0	0.0%	$839 (vs do-nothing +$412)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/10	$8,820	$11,999	88%	90%	+$5,688	-$0	0.0%	$875 (vs do-nothing +$448)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.63	3/10	$7,335	$11,442	87%	89%	+$4,598	-$0	0.0%	$811 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/10	$8,190	$12,297	86%	88%	+$5,009	-$0	0.0%	$868 (vs do-nothing +$441)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/10	$8,865	$12,972	84%	87%	+$5,177	-$0	0.0%	$913 (vs do-nothing +$486)

Show 56 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	10/10	$6,833	$4,444	83%	86%	+$2,614	-$0	0.0%	$2,127 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/10	$9,765	$13,872	83%	86%	+$5,502	-$0	0.0%	$973 (vs do-nothing +$546)
$118	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.22	10/10	$7,400	$5,010	82%	85%	+$2,707	-$0	0.0%	$2,297 (vs do-nothing +$1,870)
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	2/10	$7,080	$12,115	81%	85%	+$3,803	-$0	0.0%	$829 (vs do-nothing +$402)
$117	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/10	$7,260	$5,799	80%	84%	+$2,570	-$0	0.0%	$2,290 (vs do-nothing +$1,863)
$116	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.61	8/10	$6,960	$6,427	79%	83%	+$2,337	-$0	0.0%	$2,235 (vs do-nothing +$1,808)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.59	2/10	$7,770	$12,805	79%	84%	+$4,002	-$0	0.0%	$754 (vs do-nothing +$328)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$7,520	$6,987	77%	82%	+$2,402	-$0	0.0%	$2,403 (vs do-nothing +$1,976)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	2/10	$8,610	$13,645	77%	82%	+$4,290	-$0	0.0%	$610 (vs do-nothing +$184)
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	7/10	$7,000	$7,395	76%	81%	+$2,051	-$0	0.0%	$2,282 (vs do-nothing +$1,855)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/10	$9,300	$14,335	75%	81%	+$4,362	-$0	0.0%	$456 (vs do-nothing +$30)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	7/10	$7,583	$7,978	74%	79%	+$2,122	-$0	0.0%	$2,036 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$113	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	10/10	$7,125	$4,735	73%	79%	+$1,703	-$0	0.0%	$3,276 (vs do-nothing +$2,850)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	6/10	$7,000	$8,323	72%	78%	+$1,843	-$0	0.0%	$1,356 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	2/10	$10,200	$15,235	72%	80%	+$4,572	-$40	0.1%	$316 (vs do-nothing $-110)
$112	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.05	9/10	$6,834	$5,373	71%	77%	+$1,520	-$0	0.0%	$2,316 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/10	$7,600	$8,923	71%	77%	+$1,928	-$0	0.0%	$936 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/10	$10,950	$15,985	70%	78%	+$4,554	-$190	0.7%	$166 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$111	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	9/10	$7,341	$5,879	69%	76%	+$1,558	-$0	0.0%	$1,686 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$6,833	$9,084	69%	76%	+$1,643	-$0	0.0%	$501 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$110	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	8/10	$6,975	$6,442	68%	75%	+$1,389	-$0	0.0%	$986 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/10	$12,000	$17,035	67%	77%	+$4,755	-$320	1.1%	$36 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/10	$7,250	$9,501	67%	75%	+$1,560	-$125	0.4%	$126 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	8/10	$7,425	$6,892	66%	74%	+$1,361	-$0	0.0%	$426 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$109	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$7,304	$4,915	65%	74%	+$1,294	-$0	0.0%	$1,076 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$12,750	$17,785	65%	76%	+$4,567	-$470	1.7%	$-114 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,833	$10,084	65%	74%	+$1,607	-$450	1.6%	$-199 (vs do-nothing $-625)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	7/10	$6,891	$7,285	64%	73%	+$1,139	-$245	0.9%	$-64 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$108	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$6,926	$5,465	64%	74%	+$1,118	-$0	0.0%	$381 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/10	$6,800	$9,979	63%	73%	+$1,359	-$600	2.2%	$-314 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,350	$7,745	62%	72%	+$1,123	-$700	2.5%	$-519 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/10	$6,975	$12,939	62%	74%	+$2,368	-$295	1.1%	$96 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$107	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.35	9/10	$7,454	$5,993	62%	72%	+$1,224	-$225	0.8%	$-114 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$7,267	$10,446	61%	72%	+$1,332	-$860	3.1%	$-574 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	6/10	$6,806	$8,129	60%	71%	+$1,035	-$930	3.3%	$-714 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$106	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	8/10	$6,887	$6,354	60%	72%	+$953	-$800	2.9%	$-654 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	1/10	$7,575	$13,539	59%	73%	+$2,404	-$355	1.3%	$36 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$7,733	$10,913	58%	71%	+$1,273	-$1,120	4.0%	$-834 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	6/10	$7,369	$8,692	58%	70%	+$1,138	-$1,230	4.4%	$-1,014 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.05	8/10	$7,357	$6,823	58%	71%	+$1,004	-$1,240	4.5%	$-1,094 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	8/10	$7,722	$7,188	56%	70%	+$928	-$1,760	6.3%	$-1,614 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	6/10	$7,875	$9,198	56%	69%	+$1,158	-$1,560	5.6%	$-1,344 (vs do-nothing $-1,770)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/10	$8,025	$13,989	56%	71%	+$2,240	-$425	1.5%	$-34 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$11,513	56%	72%	+$2,540	-$1,340	4.8%	$-1,054 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$7,562	54%	69%	+$817	-$1,925	6.9%	$-1,744 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$6,797	$9,048	54%	68%	+$771	-$1,675	6.0%	$-1,424 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,113	53%	71%	+$2,536	-$1,560	5.6%	$-1,274 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$14,664	53%	70%	+$2,248	-$480	1.7%	$-89 (vs do-nothing $-515)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.25	7/10	$7,533	$7,927	53%	68%	+$756	-$2,345	8.4%	$-2,164 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$9,470	52%	67%	+$742	-$1,950	7.0%	$-1,699 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$7,150	$11,257	51%	69%	+$1,867	-$1,335	4.8%	$-1,014 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.75	6/10	$6,848	$8,171	51%	68%	+$656	-$2,310	8.3%	$-2,094 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	1/10	$9,375	$15,339	50%	68%	+$2,202	-$535	1.9%	$-144 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	5/10	$7,687	$9,939	50%	67%	+$737	-$2,200	7.9%	$-1,949 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/10	$7,450	$11,557	48%	68%	+$1,649	-$1,545	5.5%	$-1,224 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$16,089	47%	67%	+$2,176	-$585	2.1%	$-194 (vs do-nothing $-620)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 13:54