FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $102.60

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.45 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $102.60 UNDERWATER $6.33 (5.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.45 (banked floor $111.88) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,594/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,390/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,797/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,390/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,594/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.45 (probe: $110C 16d) still earns $8,719/mo (64% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$8,007

was $9,510 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.45 → $111.88

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.97 (+17%) · daily UBB $114.29 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.45 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,360

Income / mo

$35,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $4.76–$9.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 120 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $116 (overshoots $2.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.70/sh	+$1,702 cycle +$4,062 [-$895…+$2,143] · 67% credit	72% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.44/sh	+$1,445 cycle +$3,805 [-$1,896…+$1,928] · 60% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$255 cycle +$2,615 [-$2,680…+$589] · 42% credit	76% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.28/sh	+$276 cycle +$2,636 [-$3,263…+$721] · 42% credit	74% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$2.22/sh	-$2,221 cycle +$139 [-$5,881…-$2,040]	86% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,360 debit $2,221 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$139 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $10,837/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $120 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,900

Income / mo

$6,333

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.37/sh now → $5.92 mid-life (likely $5.21–$8.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 461 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $123 (overshoots $2.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.83/sh	+$831 cycle +$2,731 [+$159…+$1,673] · 79% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.80/sh	+$803 cycle +$2,703 [-$174…+$1,638] · 69% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$121	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.37/sh	+$367 cycle +$2,267 [-$332…+$1,095] · 61% credit	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.09/sh	+$92 cycle +$1,992 [-$991…+$844] · 48% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.61/sh	-$1,608 cycle +$292 [-$2,966…-$916] · 12% credit	77% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,900 debit $1,608 (85% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$292 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,189/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $128 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $128)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$600

Income / mo

$9,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.37/sh	+$1,365 cycle +$1,965	71% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.28/sh	+$280 cycle +$880	74% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$134	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.39/sh	+$385 cycle +$985	73% surv 64%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.42/sh	-$425 cycle +$175	77% surv 65%
budget: banked $600 debit $425 (71% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$175 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $19,925/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (66 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 66 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.886 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,616 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $603

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$128	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	8/10	$7,200	$6,667	100%	100%	+$7,200	-$0	0.0%	$686 (vs do-nothing +$83)
$127	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.68	7/10	$7,140	$7,535	100%	100%	+$7,140	-$0	0.0%	$731 (vs do-nothing +$129)
$126	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.72	7/10	$7,560	$7,955	100%	100%	+$7,560	-$0	0.0%	$759 (vs do-nothing +$157)
$125	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.85	6/10	$7,650	$8,973	100%	100%	+$7,649	-$0	0.0%	$815 (vs do-nothing +$212)
$124	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	6/10	$8,100	$9,423	100%	100%	+$8,099	-$0	0.0%	$845 (vs do-nothing +$242)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.00	5/10	$7,500	$9,751	100%	100%	+$7,498	-$0	0.0%	$855 (vs do-nothing +$252)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.09	5/10	$8,175	$10,426	100%	100%	+$8,171	-$0	0.0%	$900 (vs do-nothing +$297)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	4/10	$7,200	$10,379	100%	100%	+$7,195	-$0	0.0%	$884 (vs do-nothing +$281)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.38	4/10	$8,280	$11,459	100%	100%	+$8,270	-$0	0.0%	$956 (vs do-nothing +$353)
$119	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	10/10	$6,833	$4,444	89%	92%	+$5,288	-$0	0.0%	$2,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,554)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/10	$8,820	$11,999	89%	90%	+$5,796	-$0	0.0%	$992 (vs do-nothing +$389)
$118	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.22	10/10	$7,400	$5,010	88%	91%	+$5,579	-$0	0.0%	$2,326 (vs do-nothing +$1,724)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.63	3/10	$7,335	$11,442	87%	90%	+$4,690	-$0	0.0%	$943 (vs do-nothing +$340)

Show 53 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$117	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/10	$7,260	$5,799	86%	90%	+$5,336	-$0	0.0%	$2,334 (vs do-nothing +$1,731)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/10	$8,190	$12,297	86%	89%	+$5,114	-$0	0.0%	$1,000 (vs do-nothing +$397)
$116	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.61	8/10	$6,960	$6,427	85%	89%	+$4,958	-$0	0.0%	$2,294 (vs do-nothing +$1,691)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/10	$8,865	$12,972	84%	88%	+$5,296	-$0	0.0%	$1,045 (vs do-nothing +$442)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$7,520	$6,987	83%	88%	+$5,185	-$0	0.0%	$2,462 (vs do-nothing +$1,859)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/10	$9,765	$13,872	83%	86%	+$5,635	-$0	0.0%	$1,105 (vs do-nothing +$502)
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	7/10	$7,000	$7,395	81%	87%	+$4,625	-$0	0.0%	$2,355 (vs do-nothing +$1,753)
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	2/10	$7,080	$12,115	81%	85%	+$3,902	-$0	0.0%	$975 (vs do-nothing +$373)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	7/10	$7,583	$7,978	79%	85%	+$4,831	-$0	0.0%	$2,213 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.59	2/10	$7,770	$12,805	79%	84%	+$4,113	-$0	0.0%	$931 (vs do-nothing +$328)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	6/10	$7,000	$8,323	77%	84%	+$4,277	-$0	0.0%	$1,533 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	2/10	$8,610	$13,645	77%	83%	+$4,414	-$0	0.0%	$787 (vs do-nothing +$184)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/10	$7,600	$8,923	75%	83%	+$4,467	-$0	0.0%	$1,113 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/10	$9,300	$14,335	75%	82%	+$4,500	-$0	0.0%	$633 (vs do-nothing +$30)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$6,833	$9,084	73%	82%	+$3,840	-$0	0.0%	$678 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	2/10	$10,200	$15,235	73%	80%	+$4,724	-$11	0.0%	$493 (vs do-nothing $-110)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/10	$7,250	$9,501	71%	81%	+$3,830	-$52	0.2%	$303 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/10	$10,950	$15,985	70%	79%	+$4,722	-$161	0.6%	$343 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,833	$10,084	68%	79%	+$3,941	-$377	1.4%	$-22 (vs do-nothing $-625)
$110	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	8/10	$6,975	$6,442	68%	76%	+$1,487	-$0	0.0%	$1,163 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/10	$12,000	$17,035	68%	77%	+$4,939	-$291	1.0%	$213 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	8/10	$7,425	$6,892	67%	76%	+$2,326	-$0	0.0%	$603 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$109	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$7,304	$4,915	66%	74%	+$1,387	-$0	0.0%	$1,253 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/10	$6,800	$9,979	65%	78%	+$3,268	-$541	1.9%	$-137 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$12,750	$17,785	65%	76%	+$4,768	-$441	1.6%	$63 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	7/10	$6,891	$7,285	64%	74%	+$1,235	-$143	0.5%	$113 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$108	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$6,926	$5,465	64%	74%	+$1,206	-$0	0.0%	$558 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,350	$7,745	63%	74%	+$2,011	-$598	2.1%	$-342 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$7,267	$10,446	63%	76%	+$3,275	-$801	2.9%	$-397 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/10	$6,975	$12,939	63%	75%	+$2,478	-$280	1.0%	$273 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$107	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.35	9/10	$7,454	$5,993	62%	73%	+$1,317	-$93	0.3%	$63 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	6/10	$6,806	$8,129	61%	73%	+$1,813	-$842	3.0%	$-537 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$106	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	8/10	$6,887	$6,354	60%	72%	+$1,039	-$683	2.5%	$-477 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/10	$8,025	$13,989	60%	87%	+$5,818	-$410	1.5%	$143 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	1/10	$7,575	$13,539	60%	73%	+$2,523	-$340	1.2%	$213 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$7,733	$10,913	60%	75%	+$3,238	-$1,061	3.8%	$-657 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	6/10	$7,369	$8,692	59%	72%	+$1,931	-$1,142	4.1%	$-837 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.05	8/10	$7,357	$6,823	59%	71%	+$1,095	-$1,123	4.0%	$-917 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$11,513	57%	74%	+$3,289	-$1,281	4.6%	$-877 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	8/10	$7,722	$7,188	57%	70%	+$1,023	-$1,643	5.9%	$-1,437 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	6/10	$7,875	$9,198	57%	71%	+$1,963	-$1,472	5.3%	$-1,167 (vs do-nothing $-1,770)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$7,562	55%	69%	+$904	-$1,823	6.5%	$-1,567 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$6,797	$9,048	54%	70%	+$1,451	-$1,602	5.8%	$-1,247 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$14,664	54%	85%	+$5,860	-$465	1.7%	$88 (vs do-nothing $-515)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,113	54%	72%	+$3,294	-$1,501	5.4%	$-1,097 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.25	7/10	$7,533	$7,927	53%	68%	+$846	-$2,243	8.1%	$-1,987 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$9,470	52%	69%	+$1,429	-$1,877	6.7%	$-1,522 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.75	6/10	$6,848	$8,171	51%	68%	+$737	-$2,222	8.0%	$-1,917 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$7,150	$11,257	51%	71%	+$2,439	-$1,291	4.6%	$-837 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	5/10	$7,687	$9,939	50%	68%	+$1,428	-$2,127	7.6%	$-1,772 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/10	$7,450	$11,557	48%	70%	+$2,220	-$1,501	5.4%	$-1,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	1/10	$9,375	$15,339	47%	83%	+$5,788	-$520	1.9%	$33 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$16,089	41%	81%	+$5,678	-$570	2.0%	$-17 (vs do-nothing $-620)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:15