FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $102.58

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.42 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $102.58 UNDERWATER $6.35 (5.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.42 (banked floor $111.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,594/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,390/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-9,510	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,797/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,390/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,594/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.42 (probe: $114C 16d) still earns $6,656/mo (49% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$8,007

was $9,510 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.42 → $111.84

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 53 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.97 (+17%) · daily UBB $114.29 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.42 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,360

Income / mo

$35,400

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.20/sh now → $5.09 mid-life (likely $4.91–$9.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 174 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $117 (overshoots $2.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.83/sh	+$1,828 cycle +$4,188 [-$1,049…+$2,073] · 64% credit	68% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.72/sh	+$1,718 cycle +$4,078 [-$1,418…+$2,124] · 61% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.30/sh	+$299 cycle +$2,659 [-$3,098…+$641] · 34% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$26 cycle +$2,386 [-$3,152…+$169] · 26% credit	73% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$2.27/sh	-$2,270 cycle +$90 [-$6,044…-$2,080]	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $2,360 debit $2,270 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$90 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,638/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $126 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $126)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$3,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.72/sh now → $6.17 mid-life (likely $5.05–$8.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 425 simulated challenges: the $126 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $130 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$126	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.79/sh	+$789 cycle +$1,689 [+$435…+$2,014] · 92% credit	67% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$127	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.33/sh	+$326 cycle +$1,226 [-$97…+$1,513] · 70% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$227 cycle +$1,127 [-$465…+$1,645] · 61% credit	71% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.79/sh	-$789 cycle +$111 [-$1,636…+$517] · 32% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $900 debit $789 (88% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,971/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $127 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $127)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$680

Income / mo

$10,200

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$127	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.65/sh	+$1,654 cycle +$2,334	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.20/sh	+$196 cycle +$876	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$134	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.02/sh	+$18 cycle +$698	74% surv 66%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.55/sh	-$550 cycle +$130	76% surv 69%
budget: banked $680 debit $550 (81% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$130 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $6,981/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (68 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 68 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.886 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$9,603 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $624

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$127	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.68	7/10	$7,140	$7,535	100%	100%	+$7,139	-$0	0.0%	$728 (vs do-nothing +$104)
$126	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.72	7/10	$7,560	$7,955	100%	100%	+$7,558	-$0	0.0%	$756 (vs do-nothing +$132)
$124	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	6/10	$8,100	$9,423	100%	100%	+$8,094	-$0	0.0%	$845 (vs do-nothing +$221)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.20	4/10	$7,200	$10,379	99%	100%	+$7,182	-$0	0.0%	$892 (vs do-nothing +$267)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.38	4/10	$8,280	$11,459	99%	99%	+$8,250	-$0	0.0%	$964 (vs do-nothing +$339)
$128	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	8/10	$7,200	$6,667	96%	96%	+$5,827	-$0	0.0%	$679 (vs do-nothing +$55)
$125	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.85	6/10	$7,650	$8,973	94%	95%	+$5,936	-$0	0.0%	$815 (vs do-nothing +$191)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.00	5/10	$7,500	$9,751	93%	94%	+$5,510	-$0	0.0%	$859 (vs do-nothing +$234)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.09	5/10	$8,175	$10,426	92%	93%	+$5,834	-$0	0.0%	$904 (vs do-nothing +$279)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/10	$8,820	$11,999	89%	90%	+$5,808	-$0	0.0%	$1,000 (vs do-nothing +$375)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.63	3/10	$7,335	$11,442	87%	90%	+$4,700	-$0	0.0%	$954 (vs do-nothing +$330)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/10	$8,190	$12,297	86%	89%	+$5,125	-$0	0.0%	$1,011 (vs do-nothing +$387)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/10	$8,865	$12,972	85%	88%	+$5,309	-$0	0.0%	$1,056 (vs do-nothing +$432)

Show 55 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	10/10	$6,833	$4,444	83%	86%	+$2,727	-$0	0.0%	$2,143 (vs do-nothing +$1,518)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/10	$9,765	$13,872	83%	86%	+$5,649	-$0	0.0%	$1,116 (vs do-nothing +$492)
$118	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.22	10/10	$7,400	$5,010	82%	85%	+$2,830	-$0	0.0%	$2,313 (vs do-nothing +$1,688)
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.36	2/10	$7,080	$12,115	81%	85%	+$3,913	-$0	0.0%	$990 (vs do-nothing +$366)
$117	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.42	9/10	$7,260	$5,799	81%	84%	+$2,690	-$0	0.0%	$2,324 (vs do-nothing +$1,700)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.59	2/10	$7,770	$12,805	79%	84%	+$4,126	-$0	0.0%	$952 (vs do-nothing +$328)
$116	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.61	8/10	$6,960	$6,427	79%	83%	+$2,453	-$0	0.0%	$2,287 (vs do-nothing +$1,663)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.82	8/10	$7,520	$6,987	78%	82%	+$2,528	-$0	0.0%	$2,455 (vs do-nothing +$1,831)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	2/10	$8,610	$13,645	77%	83%	+$4,428	-$0	0.0%	$808 (vs do-nothing +$184)
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	7/10	$7,000	$7,395	76%	81%	+$2,170	-$0	0.0%	$2,352 (vs do-nothing +$1,728)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/10	$9,300	$14,335	75%	82%	+$4,515	-$0	0.0%	$654 (vs do-nothing +$30)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	7/10	$7,583	$7,978	75%	80%	+$2,250	-$0	0.0%	$2,234 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	2/10	$10,200	$15,235	73%	80%	+$4,741	-$4	0.0%	$514 (vs do-nothing $-110)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	6/10	$7,000	$8,323	73%	79%	+$1,961	-$0	0.0%	$1,554 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$112	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.05	9/10	$6,834	$5,373	71%	78%	+$1,577	-$0	0.0%	$2,514 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	6/10	$7,600	$8,923	71%	78%	+$2,055	-$0	0.0%	$1,134 (vs do-nothing +$510)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/10	$10,950	$15,985	70%	79%	+$4,741	-$154	0.6%	$364 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$111	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	9/10	$7,341	$5,879	70%	77%	+$1,673	-$0	0.0%	$1,884 (vs do-nothing +$1,260)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/10	$6,833	$9,084	69%	77%	+$1,757	-$0	0.0%	$699 (vs do-nothing +$75)
$110	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	8/10	$6,975	$6,442	68%	76%	+$1,497	-$0	0.0%	$1,184 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/10	$12,000	$17,035	68%	78%	+$4,959	-$284	1.0%	$234 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/10	$7,250	$9,501	67%	76%	+$1,682	-$34	0.1%	$324 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	8/10	$7,425	$6,892	66%	75%	+$1,434	-$0	0.0%	$624 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$109	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.60	10/10	$7,304	$4,915	66%	74%	+$1,398	-$0	0.0%	$1,274 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/10	$12,750	$17,785	65%	76%	+$4,790	-$434	1.6%	$84 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	5/10	$7,833	$10,084	65%	74%	+$1,737	-$359	1.3%	$-1 (vs do-nothing $-625)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	1/10	$7,575	$13,539	65%	86%	+$5,593	-$337	1.2%	$234 (vs do-nothing $-390)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	7/10	$6,891	$7,285	64%	74%	+$1,211	-$118	0.4%	$134 (vs do-nothing $-490)
$108	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$6,926	$5,465	64%	74%	+$1,216	-$0	0.0%	$579 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/10	$6,800	$9,979	63%	73%	+$1,469	-$527	1.9%	$-116 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/10	$6,975	$12,939	63%	75%	+$2,490	-$277	1.0%	$294 (vs do-nothing $-330)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,350	$7,745	63%	73%	+$1,205	-$573	2.1%	$-321 (vs do-nothing $-945)
$107	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.35	9/10	$7,454	$5,993	62%	73%	+$1,327	-$62	0.2%	$84 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$7,267	$10,446	61%	72%	+$1,449	-$787	2.8%	$-376 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.05	6/10	$6,806	$8,129	61%	72%	+$1,116	-$821	2.9%	$-516 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$106	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	8/10	$6,887	$6,354	60%	72%	+$1,049	-$655	2.4%	$-456 (vs do-nothing $-1,080)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	1/10	$8,025	$13,989	59%	84%	+$5,502	-$407	1.5%	$164 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$7,733	$10,913	59%	71%	+$1,397	-$1,047	3.8%	$-636 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	6/10	$7,369	$8,692	59%	71%	+$1,229	-$1,121	4.0%	$-816 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.05	8/10	$7,357	$6,823	59%	71%	+$1,105	-$1,095	3.9%	$-896 (vs do-nothing $-1,520)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	8/10	$7,722	$7,188	57%	70%	+$1,034	-$1,615	5.8%	$-1,416 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	6/10	$7,875	$9,198	57%	70%	+$1,270	-$1,451	5.2%	$-1,146 (vs do-nothing $-1,770)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$11,513	57%	70%	+$1,443	-$1,267	4.6%	$-856 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$7,562	55%	69%	+$914	-$1,798	6.5%	$-1,546 (vs do-nothing $-2,170)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$6,797	$9,048	55%	69%	+$870	-$1,584	5.7%	$-1,226 (vs do-nothing $-1,850)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	4/10	$8,933	$12,113	54%	69%	+$1,454	-$1,487	5.3%	$-1,076 (vs do-nothing $-1,700)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$14,664	54%	82%	+$5,538	-$462	1.7%	$109 (vs do-nothing $-515)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.25	7/10	$7,533	$7,927	53%	68%	+$856	-$2,218	8.0%	$-1,966 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$9,470	53%	68%	+$845	-$1,859	6.7%	$-1,501 (vs do-nothing $-2,125)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$7,150	$11,257	51%	70%	+$1,976	-$1,281	4.6%	$-816 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.75	6/10	$6,848	$8,171	51%	68%	+$745	-$2,201	7.9%	$-1,896 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.20	5/10	$7,687	$9,939	50%	67%	+$844	-$2,109	7.6%	$-1,751 (vs do-nothing $-2,375)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/10	$7,450	$11,557	48%	68%	+$1,765	-$1,491	5.4%	$-1,026 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	1/10	$9,375	$15,339	48%	80%	+$5,471	-$517	1.9%	$54 (vs do-nothing $-570)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.75	1/10	$10,125	$16,089	42%	78%	+$5,376	-$567	2.0%	$4 (vs do-nothing $-620)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:45