FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $99.07

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.02 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $99.07 UNDERWATER $9.86 (9.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.02 (banked floor $111.44) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,463/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,773/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-12,125	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,731/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,773/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,463/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.02 (probe: $113C 16d) still earns $5,531/mo (41% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$10,622

was $12,125 · 12% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.02 → $111.44

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 44 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 27 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.85 (+21%) · daily UBB $113.82 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.02 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

85%

Touch odds

32%

Per cycle

$1,600

Income / mo

$24,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.81/sh now → $4.82 mid-life (likely $5.31–$9.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 545 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $120 (overshoots $6.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.98/sh	+$1,976 cycle +$3,576 [+$1,363…+$2,395] · 94% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.93/sh	+$931 cycle +$2,531 [-$679…+$929] · 60% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.34/sh	+$343 cycle +$1,943 [-$1,029…+$315] · 45% credit	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$13 cycle +$1,613 [-$2,001…-$51] · 23% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.54/sh	-$1,537 cycle +$63 [-$4,363…-$1,700]	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $1,600 debit $1,537 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,470/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $119 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$980

Income / mo

$14,700

Buyback gross: $7.11/sh now → $5.03 mid-life (likely $5.43–$9.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $125 (overshoots $6.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.93/sh	+$1,925 cycle +$2,905 [+$1,437…+$2,604] · 94% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$125	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.84/sh	+$839 cycle +$1,819 [-$538…+$1,282] · 64% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.29/sh	+$288 cycle +$1,268 [-$889…+$598] · 47% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$127	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.23/sh	+$225 cycle +$1,205 [-$1,389…+$551] · 41% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.92/sh	-$916 cycle +$64 [-$3,030…-$818] · 11% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $980 debit $916 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$64 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,605/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $120 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$13,500

Buyback gross: $7.17/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $5.25–$10.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 276 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $126 (overshoots $6.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.91/sh	+$1,914 cycle +$2,814 [+$1,283…+$2,687] · 93% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.82/sh	+$819 cycle +$1,719 [-$866…+$1,467] · 63% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$124	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.28/sh	+$275 cycle +$1,175 [-$1,156…+$762] · 47% credit	71% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$128	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.20/sh	+$204 cycle +$1,104 [-$1,770…+$760] · 42% credit	75% surv 67%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$131	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.68/sh	-$678 cycle +$222 [-$3,028…-$261] · 18% credit	77% surv 72%
budget: banked $900 debit $678 (75% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$222 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $5,987/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (64 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 64 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.857 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,958 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-390

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	5/10	$6,750	$7,539	100%	100%	+$6,744	-$0	0.0%	$171 (vs do-nothing +$562)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.09	5/10	$8,175	$8,964	100%	100%	+$8,158	-$0	0.0%	$266 (vs do-nothing +$657)
$123	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.63	8/10	$7,560	$6,212	93%	94%	+$4,400	-$0	0.0%	$292 (vs do-nothing +$683)
$122	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.71	7/10	$7,455	$6,819	93%	93%	+$4,291	-$0	0.0%	$263 (vs do-nothing +$653)
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.80	6/10	$7,200	$7,277	92%	93%	+$4,074	-$0	0.0%	$224 (vs do-nothing +$614)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.98	5/10	$7,350	$8,139	90%	91%	+$3,738	-$0	0.0%	$211 (vs do-nothing +$602)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.18	4/10	$7,080	$8,582	88%	89%	+$3,352	-$0	0.0%	$171 (vs do-nothing +$561)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.30	4/10	$7,800	$9,302	87%	89%	+$3,660	-$0	0.0%	$219 (vs do-nothing +$609)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.44	4/10	$8,640	$10,142	86%	88%	+$3,922	-$0	0.0%	$275 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.60	3/10	$7,200	$9,414	85%	87%	+$3,174	-$0	0.0%	$157 (vs do-nothing +$547)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.74	3/10	$7,830	$10,044	83%	86%	+$3,258	-$0	0.0%	$192 (vs do-nothing +$582)
$115	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.02	10/10	$6,733	$3,960	82%	85%	+$2,172	-$0	0.0%	$1,853 (vs do-nothing +$2,243)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.92	3/10	$8,640	$10,854	82%	85%	+$3,457	-$0	0.0%	$-54 (vs do-nothing +$336)

Show 51 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.18	10/10	$7,267	$4,493	81%	84%	+$2,209	-$0	0.0%	$2,013 (vs do-nothing +$2,403)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.11	3/10	$9,495	$11,709	80%	84%	+$3,632	-$0	0.0%	$-297 (vs do-nothing +$93)
$113	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.36	9/10	$7,080	$5,019	80%	83%	+$2,041	-$0	0.0%	$1,914 (vs do-nothing +$2,304)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/10	$6,900	$9,827	78%	82%	+$2,488	-$145	0.5%	$-490 (vs do-nothing $-100)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.56	8/10	$6,827	$5,478	78%	82%	+$1,875	-$0	0.0%	$1,018 (vs do-nothing +$1,408)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.78	8/10	$7,413	$6,065	77%	81%	+$1,949	-$0	0.0%	$394 (vs do-nothing +$784)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.53	2/10	$7,590	$10,517	77%	81%	+$2,620	-$299	1.1%	$-644 (vs do-nothing $-254)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	7/10	$7,000	$6,364	75%	80%	+$1,732	-$16	0.1%	$-250 (vs do-nothing +$140)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/10	$8,310	$11,237	75%	80%	+$2,724	-$451	1.6%	$-796 (vs do-nothing $-406)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	7/10	$7,350	$6,714	74%	79%	+$1,555	-$611	2.2%	$-845 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	2/10	$9,000	$11,927	73%	79%	+$2,735	-$605	2.2%	$-950 (vs do-nothing $-560)
$109	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	10/10	$7,125	$4,352	72%	78%	+$1,583	-$223	0.8%	$-390 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.45	6/10	$6,900	$6,977	72%	78%	+$1,445	-$944	3.4%	$-1,200 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$108	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.05	9/10	$6,834	$4,774	71%	77%	+$1,407	-$876	3.1%	$-1,065 (vs do-nothing $-675)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	2/10	$9,600	$12,527	70%	77%	+$2,588	-$765	2.7%	$-1,110 (vs do-nothing $-720)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.70	6/10	$7,400	$7,477	70%	77%	+$1,418	-$1,394	5.0%	$-1,650 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.35	9/10	$7,341	$5,280	69%	76%	+$1,443	-$1,506	5.4%	$-1,695 (vs do-nothing $-1,305)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.55	2/10	$10,650	$13,577	68%	76%	+$2,820	-$895	3.2%	$-1,240 (vs do-nothing $-850)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	6/10	$8,000	$8,077	68%	75%	+$1,452	-$1,814	6.5%	$-2,070 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.60	8/10	$6,900	$5,552	67%	75%	+$1,209	-$1,939	7.0%	$-2,150 (vs do-nothing $-1,760)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/10	$7,167	$7,956	66%	74%	+$1,203	-$1,862	6.7%	$-2,140 (vs do-nothing $-1,750)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/10	$11,550	$14,477	66%	75%	+$2,826	-$1,035	3.7%	$-1,380 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.00	8/10	$7,500	$6,152	65%	74%	+$1,331	-$2,419	8.7%	$-2,630 (vs do-nothing $-2,240)
$105	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.45	10/10	$7,109	$4,335	65%	74%	+$1,240	-$2,573	9.2%	$-2,740 (vs do-nothing $-2,350)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.65	5/10	$7,750	$8,539	64%	73%	+$1,242	-$2,187	7.9%	$-2,465 (vs do-nothing $-2,075)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.30	7/10	$6,956	$6,320	64%	73%	+$1,112	-$2,606	9.4%	$-2,840 (vs do-nothing $-2,450)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.15	2/10	$12,450	$15,377	63%	73%	+$2,751	-$1,175	4.2%	$-1,520 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$104	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	9/10	$6,809	$4,748	63%	73%	+$1,135	-$2,901	10.4%	$-3,090 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/10	$8,333	$9,123	62%	72%	+$1,244	-$2,512	9.0%	$-2,790 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,350	$6,714	62%	72%	+$1,031	-$3,096	11.1%	$-3,330 (vs do-nothing $-2,940)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.10	9/10	$7,161	$5,100	62%	72%	+$1,071	-$3,531	12.7%	$-3,720 (vs do-nothing $-3,330)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/10	$6,750	$10,389	61%	72%	+$1,371	-$652	2.3%	$-1,020 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	4/10	$7,133	$8,635	61%	74%	+$2,336	-$2,269	8.1%	$-2,570 (vs do-nothing $-2,180)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	6/10	$6,750	$6,827	60%	71%	+$902	-$3,014	10.8%	$-3,270 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.55	8/10	$6,835	$5,487	60%	71%	+$1,029	-$3,579	12.8%	$-3,790 (vs do-nothing $-3,400)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	1/10	$7,350	$10,989	58%	71%	+$1,396	-$712	2.6%	$-1,080 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/10	$7,667	$9,168	58%	70%	+$970	-$2,509	9.0%	$-2,810 (vs do-nothing $-2,420)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.90	8/10	$7,200	$5,852	58%	70%	+$979	-$4,099	14.7%	$-4,310 (vs do-nothing $-3,920)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	6/10	$7,200	$7,277	58%	70%	+$894	-$3,374	12.1%	$-3,630 (vs do-nothing $-3,240)
$100	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.35	8/10	$7,670	$6,321	56%	70%	+$1,010	-$4,539	16.3%	$-4,750 (vs do-nothing $-4,360)
$100	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$7,762	$7,839	56%	69%	+$973	-$3,674	13.2%	$-3,930 (vs do-nothing $-3,540)
$100	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$9,835	56%	69%	+$1,142	-$2,709	9.7%	$-3,010 (vs do-nothing $-2,620)
$100	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	1/10	$8,100	$11,739	55%	69%	+$1,525	-$762	2.7%	$-1,130 (vs do-nothing $-740)
$99	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$6,532	54%	69%	+$935	-$4,321	15.5%	$-4,555 (vs do-nothing $-4,165)
$99	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$6,797	$7,586	54%	68%	+$714	-$3,387	12.2%	$-3,665 (vs do-nothing $-3,275)
$99	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	4/10	$8,867	$10,368	53%	68%	+$1,105	-$2,949	10.6%	$-3,250 (vs do-nothing $-2,860)
$99	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	1/10	$8,625	$12,264	53%	68%	+$1,380	-$827	3.0%	$-1,195 (vs do-nothing $-805)
$98	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.20	7/10	$7,487	$6,851	52%	68%	+$827	-$4,776	17.2%	$-5,010 (vs do-nothing $-4,620)
$98	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$8,008	52%	67%	+$688	-$3,662	13.1%	$-3,940 (vs do-nothing $-3,550)
$98	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	3/10	$7,100	$9,314	51%	67%	+$787	-$2,377	8.5%	$-2,700 (vs do-nothing $-2,310)
$98	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.20	1/10	$9,300	$12,939	50%	67%	+$1,336	-$882	3.2%	$-1,250 (vs do-nothing $-860)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 21:51