FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $97.11

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.00 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $97.11 UNDERWATER $11.82 (10.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.00 (banked floor $111.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,388/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,808/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-13,750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,694/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,808/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,388/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.00 (probe: $113C 16d) still earns $4,462/mo (33% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$12,247

was $13,750 · 11% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.00 → $111.42

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 39 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 18 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.84 (+23%) · daily UBB $113.97 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.00 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $113 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $113)

87%

Touch odds

28%

Per cycle

$1,350

Income / mo

$20,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.92/sh now → $4.89 mid-life (likely $5.35–$10.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 431 simulated challenges: the $113 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $119 (overshoots $6.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$113	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.92/sh	+$1,919 cycle +$3,269 [+$2,151…+$2,994] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$209 cycle +$1,559 [-$5…+$866] · 74% credit	75% surv 63%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$118	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.30/sh	+$1,300 cycle +$2,650 [-$966…+$1,518] · 63% credit	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.22/sh	+$216 cycle +$1,566 [-$2,020…+$405] · 36% credit	75% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$121	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$1.11/sh	-$1,109 cycle +$241 [-$2,156…-$846]	80% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,350 debit $1,109 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$241 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $14,187/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $116 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,020

Income / mo

$15,300

Buyback gross: $7.10/sh now → $5.02 mid-life (likely $5.41–$11.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 299 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $122 (overshoots $6.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.87/sh	+$1,866 cycle +$2,886 [+$2,110…+$2,979] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.16/sh	+$157 cycle +$1,177 [-$1…+$848] · 75% credit	75% surv 63%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$121	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.26/sh	+$1,256 cycle +$2,276 [-$872…+$1,513] · 63% credit	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$155 cycle +$1,175 [-$1,945…+$383] · 35% credit	75% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.91/sh	-$911 cycle +$109 [-$1,671…-$528] · 7% credit	79% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,020 debit $911 (89% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$109 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $15,419/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $121 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $121)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$600

Income / mo

$9,000

Buyback gross: $7.41/sh now → $5.24 mid-life (likely $5.47–$10.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 177 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $127 (overshoots $6.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$121	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.77/sh	+$1,766 cycle +$2,366 [+$2,165…+$2,943] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$57 cycle +$657 [-$20…+$901] · 73% credit	75% surv 63%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.17/sh	+$1,170 cycle +$1,770 [-$738…+$1,786] · 64% credit	71% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$126	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.30/sh	-$298 cycle +$302 [-$546…+$473] · 44% credit	76% surv 65%
budget: banked $600 debit $298 (50% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$302 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $18,529/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.04/sh	+$38 cycle +$638 [-$1,878…+$629] · 37% credit	75% surv 67%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (63 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 63 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,360 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,236

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$121	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.60	8/10	$7,200	$5,573	100%	100%	+$7,199	-$0	0.0%	$-79 (vs do-nothing +$1,157)
$120	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.68	7/10	$7,140	$6,104	100%	100%	+$7,139	-$0	0.0%	$-168 (vs do-nothing +$1,068)
$119	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.73	7/10	$7,665	$6,629	100%	100%	+$7,662	-$0	0.0%	$-133 (vs do-nothing +$1,103)
$112	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.50	3/10	$6,750	$8,076	99%	99%	+$6,701	-$0	0.0%	$-831 (vs do-nothing +$405)
$109	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.01	3/10	$9,045	$10,371	96%	98%	+$8,847	-$596	2.1%	$-1,578 (vs do-nothing $-342)
$108	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.27	2/10	$6,810	$8,727	95%	97%	+$6,608	-$545	2.0%	$-1,612 (vs do-nothing $-376)
$107	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.46	2/10	$7,380	$9,297	93%	97%	+$7,076	-$707	2.5%	$-1,774 (vs do-nothing $-538)
$118	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.81	6/10	$7,290	$6,844	92%	93%	+$4,189	-$0	0.0%	$-242 (vs do-nothing +$994)
$106	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.70	2/10	$8,100	$10,017	91%	96%	+$7,650	-$859	3.1%	$-1,926 (vs do-nothing $-690)
$117	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.90	5/10	$6,750	$6,895	91%	92%	+$3,779	-$0	0.0%	$-363 (vs do-nothing +$873)
$116	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.02	5/10	$7,650	$7,795	90%	91%	+$4,235	-$0	0.0%	$-303 (vs do-nothing +$933)
$115	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.12	4/10	$6,720	$7,456	89%	90%	+$3,580	-$0	0.0%	$-449 (vs do-nothing +$787)
$105	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.97	2/10	$8,910	$10,827	89%	95%	+$8,257	-$1,005	3.6%	$-2,072 (vs do-nothing $-836)

Show 50 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.22	4/10	$7,320	$8,056	88%	89%	+$3,713	-$0	0.0%	$-409 (vs do-nothing +$827)
$113	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	4/10	$8,100	$8,836	87%	88%	+$3,960	-$0	0.0%	$-357 (vs do-nothing +$879)
$111	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.65	3/10	$7,425	$8,751	84%	86%	+$3,347	-$104	0.4%	$-1,086 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$110	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.84	3/10	$8,280	$9,606	82%	85%	+$3,617	-$347	1.2%	$-1,329 (vs do-nothing $-93)
$112	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.10	10/10	$7,000	$4,192	82%	85%	+$2,568	-$0	0.0%	$714 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$111	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.28	9/10	$6,840	$4,622	81%	84%	+$2,403	-$0	0.0%	$-219 (vs do-nothing +$1,017)
$108	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.92	7/10	$6,813	$5,777	79%	85%	+$3,865	-$1,453	5.2%	$-2,097 (vs do-nothing $-861)
$110	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.49	9/10	$7,470	$5,252	79%	83%	+$2,539	-$456	1.6%	$-930 (vs do-nothing +$306)
$109	9d	31 Jul 2026	$2.70	8/10	$7,200	$5,573	78%	82%	+$2,337	-$1,037	3.7%	$-1,596 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$107	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.10	7/10	$7,233	$6,197	78%	83%	+$3,860	-$2,027	7.3%	$-2,671 (vs do-nothing $-1,435)
$106	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.45	6/10	$6,900	$6,454	76%	82%	+$3,602	-$2,128	7.6%	$-2,856 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$105	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.70	6/10	$7,400	$6,954	73%	81%	+$3,649	-$2,578	9.3%	$-3,306 (vs do-nothing $-2,070)
$107	16d	7 Aug 2026	$3.80	10/10	$7,125	$4,317	73%	79%	+$2,028	-$2,196	7.9%	$-2,586 (vs do-nothing $-1,350)
$106	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.00	9/10	$6,750	$4,532	71%	78%	+$1,733	-$2,697	9.7%	$-3,171 (vs do-nothing $-1,935)
$104	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	6/10	$7,900	$7,454	71%	80%	+$3,647	-$3,028	10.9%	$-3,756 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$104	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	2/10	$9,600	$11,517	71%	78%	+$2,936	-$1,159	4.2%	$-2,226 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$105	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.30	9/10	$7,256	$5,039	69%	77%	+$1,776	-$3,327	11.9%	$-3,801 (vs do-nothing $-2,565)
$103	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/10	$7,167	$7,312	69%	78%	+$3,161	-$2,848	10.2%	$-3,661 (vs do-nothing $-2,425)
$103	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	2/10	$10,500	$12,417	68%	76%	+$3,015	-$1,299	4.7%	$-2,366 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$104	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	8/10	$6,825	$5,198	68%	76%	+$1,511	-$3,557	12.8%	$-4,116 (vs do-nothing $-2,880)
$102	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.65	5/10	$7,750	$7,895	66%	77%	+$3,236	-$3,173	11.4%	$-3,986 (vs do-nothing $-2,750)
$102	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/10	$11,550	$13,467	66%	75%	+$3,167	-$1,429	5.1%	$-2,496 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$103	16d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	8/10	$7,350	$5,723	66%	75%	+$1,562	-$4,077	14.6%	$-4,636 (vs do-nothing $-3,400)
$103	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.40	10/10	$7,043	$4,235	65%	73%	+$454	-$4,596	16.5%	$-4,986 (vs do-nothing $-3,750)
$102	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.20	7/10	$6,825	$5,789	64%	74%	+$1,317	-$4,057	14.6%	$-4,701 (vs do-nothing $-3,465)
$101	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	5/10	$8,333	$8,478	64%	76%	+$3,262	-$3,498	12.6%	$-4,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,075)
$101	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/10	$12,600	$14,517	64%	74%	+$3,236	-$1,559	5.6%	$-2,626 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$102	23d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	9/10	$6,809	$4,591	63%	72%	+$464	-$4,677	16.8%	$-5,151 (vs do-nothing $-3,915)
$101	16d	7 Aug 2026	$5.65	7/10	$7,416	$6,379	62%	73%	+$1,435	-$4,442	16.0%	$-5,086 (vs do-nothing $-3,850)
$101	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.20	9/10	$7,278	$5,061	61%	71%	+$496	-$5,217	18.7%	$-5,691 (vs do-nothing $-4,455)
$100	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/10	$7,267	$8,002	61%	75%	+$2,723	-$3,019	10.8%	$-3,916 (vs do-nothing $-2,680)
$100	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.60	1/10	$6,900	$9,407	61%	72%	+$1,685	-$840	3.0%	$-1,991 (vs do-nothing $-755)
$100	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	6/10	$6,750	$6,304	60%	71%	+$1,192	-$4,198	15.1%	$-4,926 (vs do-nothing $-3,690)
$100	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.55	8/10	$6,835	$5,208	60%	72%	+$1,200	-$5,157	18.5%	$-5,716 (vs do-nothing $-4,480)
$99	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/10	$7,667	$8,402	58%	73%	+$2,595	-$3,299	11.8%	$-4,196 (vs do-nothing $-2,960)
$99	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.95	1/10	$7,425	$9,932	58%	71%	+$1,632	-$905	3.2%	$-2,056 (vs do-nothing $-820)
$99	23d	14 Aug 2026	$6.95	8/10	$7,252	$5,625	58%	69%	+$385	-$5,637	20.2%	$-6,196 (vs do-nothing $-4,960)
$99	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	6/10	$7,200	$6,754	58%	70%	+$1,184	-$4,558	16.4%	$-5,286 (vs do-nothing $-4,050)
$98	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.45	7/10	$6,802	$5,766	56%	70%	+$1,112	-$5,282	19.0%	$-5,926 (vs do-nothing $-4,690)
$98	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	6/10	$7,706	$7,261	56%	69%	+$1,204	-$4,888	17.6%	$-5,616 (vs do-nothing $-4,380)
$98	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	1/10	$8,100	$10,607	55%	70%	+$1,683	-$960	3.4%	$-2,111 (vs do-nothing $-875)
$98	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.25	4/10	$8,333	$9,069	55%	72%	+$2,689	-$3,499	12.6%	$-4,396 (vs do-nothing $-3,160)
$97	23d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,167	$6,131	54%	69%	+$1,065	-$5,702	20.5%	$-6,346 (vs do-nothing $-5,110)
$97	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/10	$6,797	$6,942	54%	68%	+$950	-$4,373	15.7%	$-5,186 (vs do-nothing $-3,950)
$97	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	1/10	$8,700	$11,207	53%	68%	+$1,611	-$1,020	3.7%	$-2,171 (vs do-nothing $-935)
$97	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/10	$6,750	$8,076	52%	71%	+$2,054	-$2,774	10.0%	$-3,756 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$96	23d	14 Aug 2026	$8.30	7/10	$7,578	$6,542	52%	67%	+$327	-$6,087	21.9%	$-6,731 (vs do-nothing $-5,495)
$96	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.70	5/10	$7,219	$7,364	51%	67%	+$920	-$4,648	16.7%	$-5,461 (vs do-nothing $-4,225)
$96	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.25	1/10	$9,375	$11,882	50%	67%	+$1,563	-$1,075	3.9%	$-2,226 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$96	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$7,150	$8,476	50%	69%	+$1,957	-$2,954	10.6%	$-3,936 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 23:04