FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $95.47

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.23 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $95.47 UNDERWATER $13.46 (12.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.23 (banked floor $111.66) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,660/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$3,053/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,325	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,830/mo

HEDGE COVER
$3,053/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,660/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.23 (probe: $113C 15d) still earns $4,040/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$13,821

was $15,325 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.23 → $111.66

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 12 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.84 (+26%) · daily UBB $114.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.23 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$1,430

Income / mo

$5,362

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.79/sh now → $5.51 mid-life (likely $4.24–$7.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 282 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $117 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.09/sh	+$1,087 cycle +$2,517 [+$713…+$2,216] · 88% credit	69% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$116	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.34/sh	+$337 cycle +$1,767 [-$201…+$1,311] · 70% credit	71% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$119	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.18/sh	+$180 cycle +$1,610 [-$635…+$1,261] · 60% credit	73% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.23/sh	-$1,228 cycle +$202 [-$2,334…-$172] · 21% credit	77% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,430 debit $1,228 (86% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$202 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,135/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $119 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,260

Income / mo

$2,520

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.21/sh now → $6.51 mid-life (likely $5.23–$8.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 378 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $122 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.31/sh	+$315 cycle +$1,575 [-$146…+$1,351] · 68% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.12/sh	+$117 cycle +$1,377 [-$362…+$1,116] · 56% credit	69% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$120	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.12/sh	+$117 cycle +$1,377 [-$362…+$1,116] · 56% credit	69% surv 54%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$1.24/sh	-$1,240 cycle +$20 [-$1,970…-$409] · 17% credit	72% surv 61%
budget: banked $1,260 debit $1,240 (98% used ≈ 2.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$20 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $11,300/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $118 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $118)

91%

Touch odds

18%

Per cycle

$970

Income / mo

$3,638

Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $4.05–$7.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 111 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $121 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$118	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$968 cycle +$1,938 [+$683…+$2,575] · 88% credit	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.22/sh	+$218 cycle +$1,188 [-$306…+$1,690] · 69% credit	71% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.07/sh	+$68 cycle +$1,038 [-$729…+$1,691] · 62% credit	73% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	7 Aug 2026	11d left	-$0.96/sh	-$961 cycle +$9 [-$1,634…+$361] · 32% credit	75% surv 64%
budget: banked $970 debit $961 (99% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$9 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $12,932/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.829 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,726 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,092

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.88	10/10	$7,050	$3,997	84%	87%	+$3,284	-$353	1.3%	$-952 (vs do-nothing +$1,140)
$110	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	9/10	$6,919	$4,414	83%	86%	+$3,103	-$1,065	3.8%	$-1,813 (vs do-nothing +$279)
$109	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.19	9/10	$7,391	$4,886	81%	85%	+$3,102	-$1,839	6.6%	$-2,587 (vs do-nothing $-495)
$108	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.43	8/10	$7,290	$5,333	80%	84%	+$3,011	-$2,242	8.1%	$-3,140 (vs do-nothing $-1,048)
$107	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.63	7/10	$6,904	$5,495	78%	83%	+$2,709	-$2,522	9.1%	$-3,569 (vs do-nothing $-1,477)
$106	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.87	7/10	$7,534	$6,125	77%	81%	+$2,842	-$3,054	11.0%	$-4,101 (vs do-nothing $-2,009)
$105	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	6/10	$7,088	$6,227	75%	80%	+$2,599	-$3,050	11.0%	$-4,246 (vs do-nothing $-2,154)
$105	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	10/10	$7,400	$4,347	75%	81%	+$3,331	-$4,533	16.3%	$-5,132 (vs do-nothing $-3,040)
$104	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.35	6/10	$7,538	$6,677	73%	79%	+$2,536	-$3,530	12.7%	$-4,726 (vs do-nothing $-2,634)
$104	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.00	9/10	$7,200	$4,695	73%	80%	+$3,113	-$4,710	16.9%	$-5,458 (vs do-nothing $-3,366)
$103	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.70	5/10	$6,938	$6,625	71%	78%	+$2,302	-$3,267	11.7%	$-4,612 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$103	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.25	9/10	$7,650	$5,145	71%	79%	+$3,099	-$5,385	19.3%	$-6,133 (vs do-nothing $-4,041)
$102	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/10	$7,406	$7,093	69%	77%	+$2,261	-$3,642	13.1%	$-4,987 (vs do-nothing $-2,895)

Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	8/10	$7,280	$5,323	69%	78%	+$2,786	-$5,346	19.2%	$-6,244 (vs do-nothing $-4,152)
$102	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	10/10	$6,955	$3,902	67%	75%	+$1,673	-$6,133	22.0%	$-6,732 (vs do-nothing $-4,640)
$101	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	5/10	$8,062	$7,750	67%	76%	+$2,363	-$3,967	14.2%	$-5,312 (vs do-nothing $-3,220)
$101	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	7/10	$6,860	$5,451	67%	76%	+$2,501	-$5,133	18.4%	$-6,180 (vs do-nothing $-4,088)
$101	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.45	10/10	$7,432	$4,379	65%	74%	+$1,711	-$6,783	24.4%	$-7,382 (vs do-nothing $-5,290)
$100	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/10	$6,975	$7,210	64%	74%	+$1,935	-$3,433	12.3%	$-4,928 (vs do-nothing $-2,836)
$100	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	7/10	$7,350	$5,941	64%	75%	+$2,528	-$5,588	20.1%	$-6,635 (vs do-nothing $-4,543)
$100	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$7,241	$4,736	63%	74%	+$1,672	-$6,600	23.7%	$-7,348 (vs do-nothing $-5,256)
$99	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	4/10	$7,500	$7,735	62%	73%	+$1,939	-$3,693	13.3%	$-5,188 (vs do-nothing $-3,096)
$99	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,840	$6,431	62%	74%	+$2,519	-$6,043	21.7%	$-7,090 (vs do-nothing $-4,998)
$99	22d	14 Aug 2026	$6.15	9/10	$7,548	$5,043	61%	72%	+$1,531	-$7,275	26.1%	$-8,023 (vs do-nothing $-5,931)
$98	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	4/10	$8,100	$8,335	60%	72%	+$1,978	-$3,933	14.1%	$-5,428 (vs do-nothing $-3,336)
$98	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	6/10	$7,200	$6,339	60%	73%	+$2,178	-$5,540	19.9%	$-6,736 (vs do-nothing $-4,644)
$98	22d	14 Aug 2026	$6.70	8/10	$7,309	$5,352	59%	72%	+$1,537	-$6,826	24.5%	$-7,724 (vs do-nothing $-5,632)
$97	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$8,700	$8,935	58%	75%	+$3,937	-$4,173	15.0%	$-5,668 (vs do-nothing $-3,576)
$97	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.00	8/10	$7,636	$5,679	57%	71%	+$1,416	-$7,386	26.5%	$-8,284 (vs do-nothing $-6,192)
$97	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	6/10	$7,680	$6,819	57%	72%	+$2,163	-$5,900	21.2%	$-7,096 (vs do-nothing $-5,004)
$96	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.50	7/10	$7,159	$5,750	55%	70%	+$1,301	-$6,813	24.5%	$-7,860 (vs do-nothing $-5,768)
$96	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.95	5/10	$6,950	$6,637	55%	71%	+$1,911	-$5,142	18.5%	$-6,487 (vs do-nothing $-4,395)
$96	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/10	$6,975	$7,758	55%	70%	+$1,445	-$3,310	11.9%	$-4,954 (vs do-nothing $-2,862)
$95	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,493	$6,084	53%	69%	+$1,195	-$7,268	26.1%	$-8,315 (vs do-nothing $-6,223)
$95	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.30	5/10	$7,300	$6,987	52%	70%	+$1,789	-$5,467	19.6%	$-6,812 (vs do-nothing $-4,720)
$94	22d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	6/10	$6,832	$5,971	51%	68%	+$1,037	-$6,530	23.4%	$-7,726 (vs do-nothing $-5,634)
$95	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/10	$7,538	$8,321	51%	72%	+$2,935	-$3,460	12.4%	$-5,104 (vs do-nothing $-3,012)
$94	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.80	5/10	$7,800	$7,487	49%	69%	+$1,788	-$5,717	20.5%	$-7,062 (vs do-nothing $-4,970)
$94	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$8,044	$8,827	47%	71%	+$2,856	-$3,625	13.0%	$-5,269 (vs do-nothing $-3,177)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:47