FORTRESS FIGHT: NOW @ $95.39

BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.17 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NOW @ $95.39 UNDERWATER $13.54 (12.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

NOW reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.17 (banked floor $111.60) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $80 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $47.067/sh)

SP: $110 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $26.798/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $7.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,850	(ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000
Normal income ref	$13,820/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$3,088/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,325	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,910/mo

HEDGE COVER
$3,088/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,820/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $27,850

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $47,850

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.17 (probe: $113C 15d) still earns $4,020/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,504

Hole (after banked)

$13,821

was $15,325 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.17 → $111.60

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 43 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 11 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $119.84 (+26%) · daily UBB $114.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.17 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $114 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $114)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$1,430

Income / mo

$5,362

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.89/sh now → $5.58 mid-life (likely $4.92–$8.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 525 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $118 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$114	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.21/sh	+$1,207 cycle +$2,637 [+$343…+$2,056] · 84% credit	66% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$117	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.88/sh	+$880 cycle +$2,310 [-$522…+$1,801] · 63% credit	68% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$119	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.11/sh	+$109 cycle +$1,539 [-$844…+$1,164] · 52% credit	73% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$117	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.06/sh	+$56 cycle +$1,486 [-$1,089…+$804] · 44% credit	69% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$123	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.30/sh	-$1,300 cycle +$130 [-$2,610…-$356] · 16% credit	77% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,430 debit $1,300 (91% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$130 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,133/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $116 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $116)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$4,500

Buyback gross: $8.03/sh now → $5.68 mid-life (likely $5.01–$8.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 441 simulated challenges: the $116 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $120 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$116	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.17/sh	+$1,170 cycle +$2,370 [+$432…+$2,050] · 85% credit	66% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.31/sh	+$311 cycle +$1,511 [-$421…+$1,462] · 62% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$53 cycle +$1,253 [-$695…+$1,171] · 51% credit	73% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$119	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.02/sh	+$17 cycle +$1,217 [-$960…+$762] · 43% credit	69% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$124	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.06/sh	-$1,057 cycle +$143 [-$2,096…-$92] · 24% credit	76% surv 68%
budget: banked $1,200 debit $1,057 (88% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$143 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $7,701/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $119 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

93%

Touch odds

15%

Per cycle

$910

Income / mo

$3,412

Buyback gross: $8.23/sh now → $5.82 mid-life (likely $4.83–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $123 (overshoots $4.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.11/sh	+$1,111 cycle +$2,021 [+$503…+$2,274] · 88% credit	66% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.22/sh	+$222 cycle +$1,132 [-$267…+$1,741] · 65% credit	72% surv 61%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$121	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.36/sh	+$359 cycle +$1,269 [-$380…+$1,392] · 61% credit	68% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.85/sh	-$845 cycle +$65 [-$1,641…+$459] · 35% credit	75% surv 66%
budget: banked $910 debit $845 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$65 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $8,298/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (39 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.826 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,686 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,069

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$111	8d	31 Jul 2026	$1.86	10/10	$6,975	$3,887	85%	87%	+$3,521	-$310	1.1%	$-949 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$110	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.05	9/10	$6,919	$4,379	83%	86%	+$3,142	-$1,008	3.6%	$-1,790 (vs do-nothing +$279)
$109	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	9/10	$7,425	$4,885	82%	85%	+$3,179	-$1,773	6.4%	$-2,555 (vs do-nothing $-486)
$108	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.43	8/10	$7,290	$5,298	80%	84%	+$3,052	-$2,192	7.9%	$-3,117 (vs do-nothing $-1,048)
$107	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.62	8/10	$7,860	$5,868	78%	83%	+$3,108	-$2,840	10.2%	$-3,765 (vs do-nothing $-1,696)
$106	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.87	7/10	$7,534	$6,090	77%	82%	+$2,880	-$3,010	10.8%	$-4,078 (vs do-nothing $-2,009)
$105	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.10	6/10	$6,975	$6,079	75%	80%	+$2,519	-$3,042	10.9%	$-4,253 (vs do-nothing $-2,184)
$104	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.35	6/10	$7,538	$6,641	73%	79%	+$2,569	-$3,492	12.5%	$-4,703 (vs do-nothing $-2,634)
$103	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.60	6/10	$8,100	$7,204	71%	78%	+$2,571	-$3,942	14.2%	$-5,153 (vs do-nothing $-3,084)
$105	15d	7 Aug 2026	$3.65	10/10	$7,300	$4,212	71%	76%	+$166	-$4,520	16.2%	$-5,159 (vs do-nothing $-3,090)
$104	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.00	9/10	$7,200	$4,660	69%	75%	+$276	-$4,653	16.7%	$-5,435 (vs do-nothing $-3,366)
$102	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.90	5/10	$7,312	$6,964	69%	77%	+$2,196	-$3,635	13.1%	$-4,989 (vs do-nothing $-2,920)
$103	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.25	9/10	$7,650	$5,110	68%	74%	+$191	-$5,328	19.1%	$-6,110 (vs do-nothing $-4,041)

Show 26 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	10/10	$6,955	$3,866	67%	76%	+$1,728	-$6,070	21.8%	$-6,709 (vs do-nothing $-4,640)
$101	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/10	$7,969	$7,621	67%	76%	+$2,299	-$3,960	14.2%	$-5,314 (vs do-nothing $-3,245)
$102	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	8/10	$7,280	$5,288	66%	73%	+$145	-$5,296	19.0%	$-6,221 (vs do-nothing $-4,152)
$101	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.45	10/10	$7,432	$4,344	65%	75%	+$1,770	-$6,720	24.1%	$-7,359 (vs do-nothing $-5,290)
$100	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.65	4/10	$6,975	$7,175	65%	74%	+$1,961	-$3,408	12.2%	$-4,905 (vs do-nothing $-2,836)
$101	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.85	8/10	$7,760	$5,768	64%	72%	+$90	-$5,856	21.0%	$-6,781 (vs do-nothing $-4,712)
$100	22d	14 Aug 2026	$5.90	9/10	$7,241	$4,701	63%	74%	+$1,727	-$6,543	23.5%	$-7,325 (vs do-nothing $-5,256)
$100	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	7/10	$7,350	$5,906	63%	71%	+$143	-$5,544	19.9%	$-6,612 (vs do-nothing $-4,543)
$99	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.95	4/10	$7,425	$7,625	62%	73%	+$1,893	-$3,688	13.2%	$-5,185 (vs do-nothing $-3,116)
$99	22d	14 Aug 2026	$6.15	9/10	$7,548	$5,007	61%	73%	+$1,589	-$7,218	25.9%	$-8,000 (vs do-nothing $-5,931)
$99	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.60	7/10	$7,840	$6,396	61%	70%	+$108	-$5,999	21.5%	$-7,067 (vs do-nothing $-4,998)
$98	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	4/10	$8,025	$8,225	60%	72%	+$1,936	-$3,928	14.1%	$-5,425 (vs do-nothing $-3,356)
$98	22d	14 Aug 2026	$6.45	8/10	$7,036	$5,044	59%	69%	$-1,045	-$6,976	25.0%	$-7,901 (vs do-nothing $-5,832)
$98	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.00	6/10	$7,200	$6,304	59%	69%	+$98	-$5,502	19.8%	$-6,713 (vs do-nothing $-4,644)
$97	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.00	8/10	$7,636	$5,644	58%	68%	$-899	-$7,336	26.3%	$-8,261 (vs do-nothing $-6,192)
$97	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	6/10	$7,680	$6,784	57%	69%	+$79	-$5,862	21.0%	$-7,073 (vs do-nothing $-5,004)
$97	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/10	$8,700	$8,900	57%	71%	+$2,012	-$4,148	14.9%	$-5,645 (vs do-nothing $-3,576)
$96	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.90	6/10	$8,280	$7,384	56%	68%	+$153	-$6,162	22.1%	$-7,373 (vs do-nothing $-5,304)
$96	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.50	7/10	$7,159	$5,715	55%	70%	+$1,352	-$6,769	24.3%	$-7,837 (vs do-nothing $-5,768)
$96	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/10	$6,975	$7,723	55%	70%	+$1,477	-$3,291	11.8%	$-4,931 (vs do-nothing $-2,862)
$95	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.30	5/10	$7,300	$6,952	54%	67%	+$67	-$5,435	19.5%	$-6,789 (vs do-nothing $-4,720)
$95	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.85	7/10	$7,493	$6,049	53%	69%	+$1,249	-$7,224	25.9%	$-8,292 (vs do-nothing $-6,223)
$95	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	3/10	$7,425	$8,173	52%	68%	+$1,411	-$3,471	12.5%	$-5,111 (vs do-nothing $-3,042)
$94	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.75	5/10	$7,750	$7,402	52%	66%	+$33	-$5,710	20.5%	$-7,064 (vs do-nothing $-4,995)
$94	22d	14 Aug 2026	$8.35	7/10	$7,970	$6,526	51%	68%	+$1,265	-$7,574	27.2%	$-8,642 (vs do-nothing $-6,573)
$94	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	3/10	$8,044	$8,792	49%	68%	+$1,480	-$3,606	12.9%	$-5,246 (vs do-nothing $-3,177)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:53