10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $114.52 (banked floor $112.98) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,118/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,841/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $104 | 80% | $4,575 | $909 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $107 | 31 Jul | 8d | 12.1% | 87% | 28% | -2pp | $840 | $3,150 | -$1,425 | $6,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $107 12.1% OTM over spot $95.44 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.90 mid) = $840 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $107) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $107.90) 88% EV / mo +$1,331 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 64% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-930/mo median; plan ~$-632/mo after 68% keep · $-3,002 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-3.0], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,543 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $114 @ 75% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.78/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $3.08–$5.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 563 simulated challenges: the $107 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $109 (overshoots $2.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $107 is $8 below CC-SS $114.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $107.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $107)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,666 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $107): -$6,683 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,742 (+$8,983 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,240, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $104 | 31 Jul | 8d | 9.0% | 80% | 30% | +1pp | $1,220 | $4,575 | — | $9,303 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $104 9.0% OTM over spot $95.44 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.31 mid) = $1,220 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $105.31) 83% EV / mo +$1,429 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-366/mo median; plan ~$-249/mo after 68% keep · $-962 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,068 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $113 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.65/sh now → $3.29 mid-life (likely $3.32–$5.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $106 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $11 below CC-SS $114.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.22 collected) or spot ≥ $105.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,666 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $104): -$9,303 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,362 (+$6,363 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,860, the opportunity cost of earning $4,575/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $99 | 31 Jul | 8d | 3.7% | 66% | 71% | +6pp | $2,500 | $9,375 | +$4,800 | $13,023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $99 3.7% OTM over spot $95.44 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.62 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $101.61) 74% EV / mo +$2,010 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $589/mo median; plan ~$401/mo after 68% keep · $1,269 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$630 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $118 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.43/sh now → $3.13 mid-life (likely $3.88–$5.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,693 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $16 below CC-SS $114.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.50 collected) or spot ≥ $101.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.31 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-16,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,666 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $99): -$13,023 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,082 (+$2,643 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,502 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,580, the opportunity cost of earning $9,375/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.821 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,666 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,502
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.22 | 10/10 | $4,575 | $1,734 | 80% | 83% | +$1,429 | -$9,303 | 33.4% | $-10,362 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $103 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.43 | 9/10 | $4,826 | $2,201 | 78% | 82% | +$1,441 | -$9,083 | 32.6% | $-10,587 (vs do-nothing $-5,085) |
| $102 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 8/10 | $4,980 | $2,571 | 75% | 80% | +$1,397 | -$8,690 | 31.2% | $-10,638 (vs do-nothing $-5,136) |
| $101 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 7/10 | $5,014 | $2,821 | 72% | 78% | +$1,296 | -$8,129 | 29.2% | $-10,521 (vs do-nothing $-5,019) |
| $102 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.53 | 10/10 | $5,060 | $2,219 | 71% | 78% | +$1,238 | -$9,993 | 35.9% | $-11,052 (vs do-nothing $-5,550) |
| $100 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 6/10 | $5,062 | $3,085 | 69% | 76% | +$1,301 | -$7,364 | 26.4% | $-10,200 (vs do-nothing $-4,698) |
| $101 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.83 | 9/10 | $5,094 | $2,469 | 69% | 76% | +$1,178 | -$9,623 | 34.6% | $-11,127 (vs do-nothing $-5,625) |
| $100 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 8/10 | $4,960 | $2,551 | 66% | 75% | +$1,007 | -$9,138 | 32.8% | $-11,086 (vs do-nothing $-5,584) |
| $99 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 5/10 | $4,688 | $2,926 | 66% | 74% | +$1,005 | -$6,511 | 23.4% | $-9,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,290) |
| $100 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 9/10 | $4,786 | $2,161 | 64% | 73% | +$700 | -$9,560 | 34.3% | $-11,064 (vs do-nothing $-5,562) |
| $99 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 7/10 | $4,830 | $2,637 | 63% | 73% | +$912 | -$8,451 | 30.3% | $-10,843 (vs do-nothing $-5,341) |
| $99 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 9/10 | $4,909 | $2,284 | 62% | 72% | +$572 | -$10,370 | 37.2% | $-11,874 (vs do-nothing $-6,372) |
| $98 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.91 | 5/10 | $5,456 | $3,695 | 62% | 72% | +$1,151 | -$6,806 | 24.4% | $-10,087 (vs do-nothing $-4,585) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $98 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 7/10 | $5,250 | $3,057 | 60% | 72% | +$807 | -$8,941 | 32.1% | $-11,333 (vs do-nothing $-5,831) |
| $98 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 8/10 | $4,909 | $2,500 | 60% | 71% | +$655 | -$9,618 | 34.5% | $-11,566 (vs do-nothing $-6,064) |
| $97 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 4/10 | $4,800 | $3,255 | 58% | 70% | +$793 | -$5,729 | 20.6% | $-9,454 (vs do-nothing $-3,952) |
| $97 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 6/10 | $4,980 | $3,003 | 57% | 70% | +$688 | -$8,024 | 28.8% | $-10,860 (vs do-nothing $-5,358) |
| $97 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 8/10 | $5,127 | $2,718 | 57% | 70% | +$440 | -$10,258 | 36.8% | $-12,206 (vs do-nothing $-6,704) |
| $96 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 7/10 | $4,916 | $2,723 | 55% | 69% | +$404 | -$9,361 | 33.6% | $-11,753 (vs do-nothing $-6,251) |
| $96 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 6/10 | $5,460 | $3,483 | 54% | 69% | +$642 | -$8,384 | 30.1% | $-11,220 (vs do-nothing $-5,718) |
| $96 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 4/10 | $5,400 | $3,855 | 54% | 68% | +$762 | -$5,969 | 21.4% | $-9,694 (vs do-nothing $-4,192) |
| $95 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.50 | 7/10 | $5,250 | $3,057 | 52% | 67% | +$295 | -$9,816 | 35.2% | $-12,208 (vs do-nothing $-6,706) |
| $95 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 5/10 | $5,000 | $3,239 | 51% | 67% | +$509 | -$7,261 | 26.1% | $-10,542 (vs do-nothing $-5,040) |
| $95 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 3/10 | $4,612 | $3,283 | 50% | 67% | +$605 | -$4,627 | 16.6% | $-8,796 (vs do-nothing $-3,294) |
| $94 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.05 | 6/10 | $4,950 | $2,973 | 49% | 66% | +$295 | -$8,684 | 31.2% | $-11,520 (vs do-nothing $-6,018) |
| $94 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 5/10 | $5,400 | $3,639 | 48% | 66% | +$397 | -$7,561 | 27.2% | $-10,842 (vs do-nothing $-5,340) |
| $94 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/10 | $5,006 | $3,677 | 46% | 65% | +$413 | -$4,822 | 17.3% | $-8,991 (vs do-nothing $-3,489) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.