10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $108.93 | CC-SS: $113.99 (banked floor $112.46) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $47,850 | (ND $27.85 + SW $20) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,100/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,912/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 8d | 10 × $101 | 78% | $4,762 | $1,263 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 10 × $104 | 31 Jul | 8d | 10.6% | 85% | 30% | +2pp | $800 | $3,000 | -$1,762 | $9,194 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $104 10.6% OTM over spot $94.05 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.85 mid) = $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $104) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $104.86) 87% EV / mo +$1,140 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,178/mo median; plan ~$-801/mo after 68% keep · $-6,108 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,074 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $113 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.87 mid-life (likely $2.67–$4.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 646 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $106 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $104 is $10 below CC-SS $113.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.80 collected) or spot ≥ $104.86 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,155 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $104): -$9,194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,464 (+$6,961 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,434 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,030, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 9 × $103 | 31 Jul | 8d | 9.5% | 83% | 35% | +2pp | $837 | $3,139 | -$1,624 | $9,058 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $103 9.5% OTM over spot $94.05 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.99 mid) = $837 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,139/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $103) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $103.98) 85% EV / mo +$1,101 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,035/mo median; plan ~$-704/mo after 68% keep · $-4,434 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,725 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $112 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $2.73–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 714 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $105 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $103 is $11 below CC-SS $113.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $103.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,155 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $103): -$9,058 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $109): -$416 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,744 (+$6,681 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,434 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,310, the opportunity cost of earning $3,139/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $101 | 31 Jul | 8d | 7.4% | 78% | 33% | +3pp | $1,270 | $4,762 | — | $11,724 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $101 7.4% OTM over spot $94.05 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.32 mid) = $1,270 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,762/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $101) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $102.33) 82% EV / mo +$1,422 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 59% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-624/mo median; plan ~$-424/mo after 68% keep · $-3,037 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 59% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,521 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $112 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,003 simulated challenges: the $101 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $101 is $13 below CC-SS $113.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.32/sh (~25% of the $1.27 collected) or spot ≥ $102.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $101)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,155 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $101): -$11,724 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,994 (+$4,431 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,434 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,560, the opportunity cost of earning $4,762/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $96 | 31 Jul | 8d | 2.1% | 60% | 82% | +7pp | $2,630 | $9,862 | +$5,100 | $15,364 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $96 2.1% OTM over spot $94.05 31 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.71 mid) = $2,630 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,862/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $98.70) 71% EV / mo +$1,580 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $192/mo median; plan ~$131/mo after 68% keep · $592 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 67% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$23 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $113 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.75/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $3.54–$4.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,996 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $98 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $18 below CC-SS $113.99: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.63 collected) or spot ≥ $98.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $113.35 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $113.99, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,425 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,155 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $96): -$15,364 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,634 (+$791 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,434 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,200, the opportunity cost of earning $9,862/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,155 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,434
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $101 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.27 | 10/10 | $4,762 | $1,851 | 78% | 82% | +$1,422 | -$11,724 | 42.1% | $-12,994 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $100 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 9/10 | $5,062 | $2,317 | 75% | 80% | +$1,425 | -$11,245 | 40.4% | $-12,931 (vs do-nothing $-7,497) |
| $99 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 8/10 | $5,160 | $2,580 | 72% | 78% | +$1,262 | -$10,619 | 38.1% | $-12,722 (vs do-nothing $-7,288) |
| $100 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.41 | 10/10 | $4,820 | $1,908 | 71% | 77% | +$1,184 | -$11,584 | 41.6% | $-12,854 (vs do-nothing $-7,420) |
| $98 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.99 | 7/10 | $5,224 | $2,810 | 68% | 75% | +$1,131 | -$9,803 | 35.2% | $-12,322 (vs do-nothing $-6,888) |
| $99 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 9/10 | $4,860 | $2,114 | 68% | 76% | +$1,104 | -$11,065 | 39.7% | $-12,751 (vs do-nothing $-7,317) |
| $99 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 10/10 | $4,773 | $1,861 | 66% | 75% | +$1,011 | -$11,494 | 41.3% | $-12,764 (vs do-nothing $-7,330) |
| $98 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 8/10 | $4,800 | $2,220 | 65% | 74% | +$979 | -$10,395 | 37.3% | $-12,498 (vs do-nothing $-7,064) |
| $97 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 6/10 | $5,198 | $2,950 | 64% | 73% | +$1,010 | -$8,810 | 31.6% | $-11,746 (vs do-nothing $-6,312) |
| $98 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 9/10 | $4,725 | $1,979 | 64% | 73% | +$941 | -$10,930 | 39.2% | $-12,616 (vs do-nothing $-7,182) |
| $97 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 7/10 | $4,690 | $2,276 | 62% | 72% | +$875 | -$9,551 | 34.3% | $-12,070 (vs do-nothing $-6,636) |
| $97 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.20 | 8/10 | $4,582 | $2,002 | 61% | 72% | +$831 | -$10,235 | 36.8% | $-12,338 (vs do-nothing $-6,904) |
| $96 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 5/10 | $4,931 | $2,849 | 60% | 71% | +$790 | -$7,682 | 27.6% | $-11,034 (vs do-nothing $-5,600) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $96 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 7/10 | $5,180 | $2,766 | 59% | 71% | +$841 | -$10,006 | 35.9% | $-12,525 (vs do-nothing $-7,091) |
| $96 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 8/10 | $5,018 | $2,438 | 58% | 71% | +$845 | -$10,715 | 38.5% | $-12,818 (vs do-nothing $-7,384) |
| $95 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 4/10 | $4,650 | $2,734 | 56% | 69% | +$742 | -$6,358 | 22.8% | $-10,126 (vs do-nothing $-4,692) |
| $95 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 6/10 | $4,980 | $2,732 | 56% | 69% | +$765 | -$8,906 | 32.0% | $-11,842 (vs do-nothing $-6,408) |
| $95 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 7/10 | $4,773 | $2,359 | 56% | 69% | +$719 | -$9,796 | 35.2% | $-12,315 (vs do-nothing $-6,881) |
| $94 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.40 | 7/10 | $5,155 | $2,741 | 53% | 68% | +$666 | -$10,216 | 36.7% | $-12,735 (vs do-nothing $-7,301) |
| $94 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 5/10 | $4,600 | $2,518 | 52% | 68% | +$633 | -$7,697 | 27.6% | $-11,049 (vs do-nothing $-5,615) |
| $94 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/10 | $5,250 | $3,334 | 52% | 67% | +$669 | -$6,598 | 23.7% | $-10,366 (vs do-nothing $-4,932) |
| $93 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.90 | 6/10 | $4,827 | $2,580 | 50% | 67% | +$578 | -$9,056 | 32.5% | $-11,992 (vs do-nothing $-6,558) |
| $93 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 5/10 | $5,050 | $2,968 | 49% | 66% | +$587 | -$7,972 | 28.6% | $-11,324 (vs do-nothing $-5,890) |
| $93 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 4/10 | $5,925 | $4,009 | 47% | 65% | +$591 | -$6,818 | 24.5% | $-10,586 (vs do-nothing $-5,152) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.