FORTRESS FIGHT: NVDA @ $218.48

BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $227.71 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NVDA @ $218.48 UNDERWATER $46.32 (17.5% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $227.71 (banked floor $227.18) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $215 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $61.081/sh)

SP: $225 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $38.240/sh)

HP: $200 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $26.887/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$74,800	(ND $49.80 + SW $25) x 1000
Normal income ref	$11,700/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,384/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-6,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,850/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,700/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $49,800

ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $74,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $227.71 (probe: $227.5C 13d) still earns $5,054/mo (43% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-04; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-04

$403

Hole (after banked)

$6,297

was $6,700 · 6% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$227.71 → $227.18

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 43 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $231.76 (+6%) · daily UBB $232.09 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-17: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $227.71 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $230 18 Sep 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $230)

85%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$1,080

Income / mo

$4,050

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$230	21 Sep 2026	7d left	+$0.43/sh	+$432 cycle +$1,512 [+$229…+$839] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$237	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.47/sh	+$475 cycle +$1,555 [-$221…+$910] · 61% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$242	2 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.03/sh	-$1,034 cycle +$46 [-$2,044…-$719] · 9% credit	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $1,080 debit $1,034 (96% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$46 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $4,266/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $237.50 25 Sep 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $237.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$910

Income / mo

$1,820

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$238	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.24/sh	+$1,238 cycle +$2,148 [+$1,043…+$1,920] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$239	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.46/sh	+$456 cycle +$1,366 [+$126…+$1,003] · 84% credit	69% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$239	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.46/sh	+$456 cycle +$1,366 [+$126…+$1,003] · 84% credit	69% surv 55%
SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $260 16 Sep 2026 (6d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $260)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$10

Income / mo

$50

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$260	18 Sep 2026	5d left	+$0.13/sh	+$132 cycle +$142	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$267	2 Oct 2026	19d left	+$0.39/sh	+$390 cycle +$400	75% surv 67%
reaches SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (32 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.764 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,049 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $379

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$225	6d	16 Sep 2026	$1.55	8/10	$6,200	$6,216	76%	81%	+$2,306	-$925	1.9%	$-570 (vs do-nothing $-949)
$225	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.19	8/10	$6,570	$6,586	72%	78%	+$2,191	-$413	0.8%	$-58 (vs do-nothing $-437)
$222.50	4d	14 Sep 2026	$1.35	6/10	$6,075	$6,108	72%	78%	+$2,127	-$2,314	4.6%	$-1,953 (vs do-nothing $-2,332)
$225	11d	21 Sep 2026	$2.49	9/10	$6,112	$6,120	71%	77%	+$1,864	-$194	0.4%	$157 (vs do-nothing $-221)
$225	13d	23 Sep 2026	$2.76	10/10	$6,369	$6,369	69%	76%	+$1,533	-$0	0.0%	$403 (vs do-nothing +$24)
$225	15d	25 Sep 2026	$3.50	9/10	$6,300	$6,308	68%	75%	+$1,684	-$0	0.0%	$1,066 (vs do-nothing +$688)
$222.50	6d	16 Sep 2026	$2.30	6/10	$6,900	$6,933	67%	75%	+$2,043	-$1,744	3.5%	$-1,383 (vs do-nothing $-1,762)
$225	22d	2 Oct 2026	$4.85	9/10	$5,952	$5,960	65%	74%	+$1,577	-$0	0.0%	$2,281 (vs do-nothing +$1,903)
$222.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$3.00	6/10	$6,750	$6,783	65%	74%	+$1,815	-$1,324	2.7%	$-963 (vs do-nothing $-1,342)
$222.50	11d	21 Sep 2026	$3.25	7/10	$6,205	$6,229	64%	73%	+$1,437	-$1,369	2.7%	$-1,012 (vs do-nothing $-1,390)
$222.50	13d	23 Sep 2026	$3.90	7/10	$6,300	$6,325	63%	73%	+$1,600	-$914	1.8%	$-557 (vs do-nothing $-935)
$222.50	15d	25 Sep 2026	$4.45	7/10	$6,230	$6,255	62%	72%	+$1,502	-$529	1.1%	$-172 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$220	4d	14 Sep 2026	$2.25	4/10	$6,750	$6,799	59%	71%	+$1,685	-$2,182	4.4%	$-1,816 (vs do-nothing $-2,194)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$220	6d	16 Sep 2026	$3.30	4/10	$6,600	$6,649	57%	70%	+$1,510	-$1,762	3.5%	$-1,396 (vs do-nothing $-1,774)
$220	8d	18 Sep 2026	$4.05	4/10	$6,075	$6,124	56%	70%	+$1,348	-$1,462	2.9%	$-1,096 (vs do-nothing $-1,474)
$220	11d	21 Sep 2026	$4.30	5/10	$5,864	$5,905	56%	69%	+$1,100	-$1,703	3.4%	$-1,339 (vs do-nothing $-1,718)
$220	13d	23 Sep 2026	$4.85	6/10	$6,715	$6,748	56%	69%	+$1,269	-$1,714	3.4%	$-1,353 (vs do-nothing $-1,732)
$220	15d	25 Sep 2026	$5.55	6/10	$6,660	$6,693	55%	69%	+$1,379	-$1,294	2.6%	$-933 (vs do-nothing $-1,312)
$220	22d	2 Oct 2026	$7.00	7/10	$6,682	$6,706	55%	69%	+$1,380	-$494	1.0%	$-137 (vs do-nothing $-515)
$217.50	15d	25 Sep 2026	$6.85	5/10	$6,850	$6,891	49%	66%	+$1,215	-$1,678	3.4%	$-1,314 (vs do-nothing $-1,693)
$217.50	13d	23 Sep 2026	$6.05	5/10	$6,981	$7,022	48%	66%	+$1,006	-$2,078	4.2%	$-1,714 (vs do-nothing $-2,093)
$217.50	11d	21 Sep 2026	$5.65	4/10	$6,164	$6,213	48%	66%	+$999	-$1,822	3.7%	$-1,456 (vs do-nothing $-1,834)
$217.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$5.30	3/10	$5,962	$6,020	48%	66%	+$1,017	-$1,472	3.0%	$-1,102 (vs do-nothing $-1,481)
$217.50	6d	16 Sep 2026	$4.55	3/10	$6,825	$6,882	47%	65%	+$1,160	-$1,697	3.4%	$-1,327 (vs do-nothing $-1,706)
$217.50	4d	14 Sep 2026	$3.50	3/10	$7,875	$7,932	45%	65%	+$1,353	-$2,012	4.0%	$-1,642 (vs do-nothing $-2,021)
$215	22d	2 Oct 2026	$9.60	5/10	$6,545	$6,586	44%	64%	+$961	-$1,553	3.1%	$-1,189 (vs do-nothing $-1,568)
$215	15d	25 Sep 2026	$8.30	4/10	$6,640	$6,689	42%	64%	+$1,084	-$1,762	3.5%	$-1,396 (vs do-nothing $-1,774)
$215	13d	23 Sep 2026	$7.30	4/10	$6,738	$6,788	41%	63%	+$603	-$2,162	4.3%	$-1,796 (vs do-nothing $-2,174)
$215	11d	21 Sep 2026	$6.95	4/10	$7,582	$7,631	40%	63%	+$796	-$2,302	4.6%	$-1,936 (vs do-nothing $-2,314)
$215	8d	18 Sep 2026	$6.80	3/10	$7,650	$7,707	39%	62%	+$1,044	-$1,772	3.6%	$-1,402 (vs do-nothing $-1,781)
$215	6d	16 Sep 2026	$6.05	2/10	$6,050	$6,115	37%	61%	+$726	-$1,331	2.7%	$-959 (vs do-nothing $-1,337)
$215	4d	14 Sep 2026	$5.10	2/10	$7,650	$7,715	32%	60%	+$828	-$1,521	3.1%	$-1,149 (vs do-nothing $-1,527)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-10 21:51