FORTRESS FIGHT: NVDA @ $221.01

BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $228.64 | 10 contracts (1,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

NVDA @ $221.01 UNDERWATER $43.79 (16.5% below BE SS)

10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $228.64 (banked floor $228.12) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $215 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $61.081/sh)

SP: $225 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $38.240/sh)

HP: $200 exp 2028-06-16 (entry $26.887/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$74,800	(ND $49.80 + SW $25) x 1000
Normal income ref	$11,443/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,339/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-5,525	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,721/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,443/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.4 mo to earn back $49,800

ML VELOCITY
6.5 mo to earn back $74,800

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $228.64 (probe: $227.5C 14d) still earns $6,429/mo (56% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-09-04; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-09-04

$403

Hole (after banked)

$5,122

was $5,525 · 7% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$228.64 → $228.12

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 74 (live) · RSI 57 · MACD bullish, hist rising

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 55 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $231.81 (+5%) · daily UBB $231.53 · 1-wk expected move ±$9 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-11-17: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $228.64 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 10 × $230 18 Sep 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $230)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$1,090

Income / mo

$4,671

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.37/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.90–$4.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 739 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $232 (overshoots $2.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$234	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.78/sh	+$2,779 cycle +$3,869 [+$2,277…+$3,246] · 99% credit	73% surv 61%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$230	21 Sep 2026	6d left	+$0.54/sh	+$538 cycle +$1,628 [+$268…+$826] · 93% credit	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$239	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.87/sh	+$869 cycle +$1,959 [+$110…+$1,198] · 79% credit	79% surv 71%
SS $265 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$244	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.55/sh	-$549 cycle +$541 [-$1,568…-$292] · 17% credit	84% surv 80%
budget: banked $1,090 debit $549 (50% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$541 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $3,177/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $245 9 Oct 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $245)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,370

Income / mo

$1,468

🛡 Safer · sell 10 × $275 18 Sep 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $275)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$10

Income / mo

$43

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$275	21 Sep 2026	6d left	-$0.61/sh	-$613 cycle -$603	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$279	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$1.00/sh	+$998 cycle +$1,008	74% surv 62%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.771 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,884 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $369

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$227.50	5d	16 Sep 2026	$1.00	10/10	$6,000	$6,000	81%	84%	+$2,734	-$142	0.3%	$217 (vs do-nothing $-152)
$227.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.65	9/10	$6,364	$6,367	77%	82%	+$2,887	-$0	0.0%	$817 (vs do-nothing +$448)
$227.50	10d	21 Sep 2026	$1.96	10/10	$5,880	$5,880	73%	79%	+$1,795	-$0	0.0%	$1,177 (vs do-nothing +$808)
$227.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$2.50	10/10	$6,250	$6,250	71%	78%	+$2,182	-$0	0.0%	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$1,348)
$225	5d	16 Sep 2026	$1.66	6/10	$5,976	$5,986	71%	78%	+$2,199	-$1,189	2.4%	$-826 (vs do-nothing $-1,195)
$227.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.00	9/10	$5,786	$5,788	70%	77%	+$2,078	-$0	0.0%	$2,032 (vs do-nothing +$1,663)
$225	7d	18 Sep 2026	$2.42	6/10	$6,223	$6,233	68%	76%	+$2,315	-$733	1.5%	$-370 (vs do-nothing $-739)
$225	10d	21 Sep 2026	$2.79	7/10	$5,859	$5,867	65%	74%	+$1,522	-$596	1.2%	$-234 (vs do-nothing $-603)
$225	12d	23 Sep 2026	$3.35	7/10	$5,862	$5,870	64%	74%	+$1,685	-$204	0.4%	$158 (vs do-nothing $-211)
$225	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.90	7/10	$5,850	$5,857	63%	74%	+$1,805	-$0	0.0%	$543 (vs do-nothing +$174)
$225	21d	2 Oct 2026	$5.35	8/10	$6,114	$6,119	61%	73%	+$1,959	-$0	0.0%	$1,728 (vs do-nothing +$1,358)
$225	28d	9 Oct 2026	$6.55	9/10	$6,316	$6,319	60%	73%	+$2,035	-$0	0.0%	$2,977 (vs do-nothing +$2,608)
$222.50	5d	16 Sep 2026	$2.63	4/10	$6,312	$6,327	58%	71%	+$1,754	-$1,405	2.8%	$-1,040 (vs do-nothing $-1,409)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$222.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$3.45	4/10	$5,914	$5,929	57%	71%	+$1,781	-$1,077	2.2%	$-712 (vs do-nothing $-1,081)
$222.50	10d	21 Sep 2026	$3.80	6/10	$6,840	$6,850	56%	70%	+$1,428	-$1,405	2.8%	$-1,042 (vs do-nothing $-1,411)
$222.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$4.40	6/10	$6,600	$6,610	56%	70%	+$1,522	-$1,045	2.1%	$-682 (vs do-nothing $-1,051)
$222.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$5.00	6/10	$6,429	$6,439	56%	70%	+$1,700	-$685	1.4%	$-322 (vs do-nothing $-691)
$220	28d	9 Oct 2026	$8.95	6/10	$5,754	$5,764	49%	68%	+$1,459	-$0	0.0%	$548 (vs do-nothing +$179)
$220	21d	2 Oct 2026	$7.80	6/10	$6,686	$6,696	49%	68%	+$1,665	-$505	1.0%	$-142 (vs do-nothing $-511)
$220	14d	25 Sep 2026	$6.35	5/10	$6,804	$6,816	48%	67%	+$1,573	-$1,146	2.3%	$-782 (vs do-nothing $-1,151)
$220	12d	23 Sep 2026	$5.70	5/10	$7,125	$7,138	48%	66%	+$1,327	-$1,471	3.0%	$-1,107 (vs do-nothing $-1,476)
$220	10d	21 Sep 2026	$5.10	4/10	$6,120	$6,135	47%	66%	+$1,068	-$1,417	2.8%	$-1,052 (vs do-nothing $-1,421)
$220	7d	18 Sep 2026	$4.75	3/10	$6,107	$6,125	46%	67%	+$1,462	-$1,168	2.3%	$-801 (vs do-nothing $-1,171)
$220	5d	16 Sep 2026	$3.90	3/10	$7,020	$7,038	45%	65%	+$1,361	-$1,423	2.9%	$-1,056 (vs do-nothing $-1,426)
$217.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$7.75	4/10	$6,643	$6,658	40%	64%	+$1,232	-$1,357	2.7%	$-992 (vs do-nothing $-1,361)
$217.50	12d	23 Sep 2026	$7.00	4/10	$7,000	$7,015	40%	63%	+$853	-$1,657	3.3%	$-1,292 (vs do-nothing $-1,661)
$217.50	10d	21 Sep 2026	$6.55	3/10	$5,895	$5,912	38%	63%	+$781	-$1,378	2.8%	$-1,011 (vs do-nothing $-1,381)
$217.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$6.30	3/10	$8,100	$8,118	36%	63%	+$1,499	-$1,453	2.9%	$-1,086 (vs do-nothing $-1,456)
$217.50	5d	16 Sep 2026	$5.50	2/10	$6,600	$6,620	33%	61%	+$883	-$1,128	2.3%	$-761 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-11 22:01