10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $228.96 (banked floor $228.44) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $74,800 | (ND $49.80 + SW $25) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,364/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,467/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,825 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 4d | 7 × $217.50 | 81% | $6,562 | $4,017 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 11d | 9 × $217.50 | 73% | $6,235 | $-591 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $222.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 5.9% | 92%hist 96% | 15%hist 14% | +8pp | $440 | $3,300 | -$3,262 | $6,020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $222.50 5.9% OTM over spot $210.13 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.45 mid) = $440 credit for the 4d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $222.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $222.95) 93% EV / mo +$2,187 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,653/mo median; plan ~$1,804/mo after 68% keep · $3,980 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.4], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,685 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $232 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.42/sh now → $3.13 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 311 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $225 (overshoots $2.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $222.50 is $6 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $222.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $222.50): -$6,020 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,817 (+$8,008 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,040, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,270, position total $-6,390 (+$7,435 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $220 | 18 Sep | 4d | 4.7% | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 26% | +12pp | $616 | $4,620 | -$1,942 | $6,552 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $220 4.7% OTM over spot $210.13 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $0.78 mid) = $616 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,620/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $220.78) 89% EV / mo +$2,756 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,378/mo median; plan ~$2,297/mo after 68% keep · $4,930 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,856 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $235 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.37/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.07–$5.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 568 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $223 (overshoots $2.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $9 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $220.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $220): -$6,552 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,345 (+$7,480 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,568, the opportunity cost of earning $4,620/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,352, position total $-6,468 (+$7,357 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 7 × $217.50 | 18 Sep | 4d | 3.5% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +12pp | $875 | $6,562 | — | $7,147 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 7 × $217.50 3.5% OTM over spot $210.13 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.26 mid) = $875 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,562/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $217.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $218.76) 84% EV / mo +$3,354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 87% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,386/mo median; plan ~$2,982/mo after 68% keep · $5,235 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-1.9], measured ONLY among the 87% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,264 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $230 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 7 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.32/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $3.25–$5.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 788 simulated challenges: the $218 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $220 (overshoots $2.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $217.50 is $11 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $218.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $218)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (7 × $217.50): -$7,147 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $265): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,938 (+$6,887 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,161, the opportunity cost of earning $6,562/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,722, position total $-6,836 (+$6,989 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $215 | 18 Sep | 4d | 2.3% | 72%hist 84% | 57%hist 44% | +24pp | $1,764 | $13,230 | +$6,668 | $10,800 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $215 2.3% OTM over spot $210.13 18 Sep 2026 (4d, $1.96 mid) = $1,764 credit for the 4d cycle → $13,230/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $215) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $216.97) 79% EV / mo +$5,637 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +24pp 92% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,433/mo median; plan ~$5,054/mo after 68% keep · $8,426 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 92% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$954 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $232 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.27/sh now → $3.02 mid-life (likely $3.54–$5.80) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,177 simulated challenges: the $215 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $218 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $215 is $14 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.96 collected) or spot ≥ $216.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $215): -$10,800 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $265): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,595 (+$3,230 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,818, the opportunity cost of earning $13,230/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,825, position total $-10,943 (+$2,882 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $227.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 8.3% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +7pp | $670 | $1,827 | -$4,407 | $790 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $227.50 8.3% OTM over spot $210.13 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $0.68 mid) = $670 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,827/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $227.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $228.18) 92% EV / mo +$1,096 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 79% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,521/mo median; plan ~$1,034/mo after 68% keep · $2,689 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 79% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,754 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $232 @ 73% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.26/sh now → $4.42 mid-life (likely $3.69–$5.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $228 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $230 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $227.50 is $1 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.67 collected) or spot ≥ $228.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $228)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $227.50): -$790 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-587 (+$13,238 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-810, the opportunity cost of earning $1,827/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,040, position total $-1,160 (+$12,665 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 9 × $220 | 25 Sep | 11d | 4.7% | 79%hist 84% | 42%hist 39% | +11pp | $1,674 | $4,565 | -$1,669 | $6,390 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $220 4.7% OTM over spot $210.13 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $1.88 mid) = $1,674 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $221.88) 83% EV / mo +$2,015 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 71% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,354/mo median; plan ~$2,281/mo after 68% keep · $6,447 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,176 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $227 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.05/sh now → $4.28 mid-life (likely $4.28–$6.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,052 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $222 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $9 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.47/sh (~25% of the $1.86 collected) or spot ≥ $221.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $220): -$6,390 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $265): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,185 (+$7,640 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,408, the opportunity cost of earning $4,565/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,415, position total $-6,533 (+$7,292 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $217.50 | 25 Sep | 11d | 3.5% | 73%hist 84% | 55%hist 44% | +13pp | $2,286 | $6,235 | — | $8,028 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $217.50 3.5% OTM over spot $210.13 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $2.56 mid) = $2,286 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,235/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $217.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $220.06) 79% EV / mo +$2,403 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,337/mo median; plan ~$2,949/mo after 68% keep · $6,502 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,520 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $232 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.98/sh now → $4.23 mid-life (likely $4.79–$6.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,371 simulated challenges: the $218 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $220 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $217.50 is $11 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $220.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $218)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $217.50): -$8,028 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $265): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,823 (+$6,002 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,046, the opportunity cost of earning $6,235/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,053, position total $-8,171 (+$5,654 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $210 | 25 Sep | 11d | -0.1% | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 90% | · | $4,600 | $12,545 | +$6,311 | $10,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $210 0.1% ITM over spot $210.13 25 Sep 2026 (11d, $5.80 mid) = $4,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $12,545/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $215.80) 68% EV / mo +$2,914 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,333 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $228 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.77/sh now → $4.08 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $19 below CC-SS $228.96: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.44/sh (~25% of the $5.75 collected) or spot ≥ $215.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.22 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $228.96, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,825 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$14,028 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $210): -$10,568 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,361 (+$3,464 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $223 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,584, the opportunity cost of earning $12,545/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.21 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$12,368, position total $-10,484 (+$3,341 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.745 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,028 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $223
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $217.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.25 | 7/10 | $6,562 | $6,579 | 81% | 84% | +$3,354 | -$7,147 | 14.4% | $-6,938 (vs do-nothing $-7,161) |
| $217.50 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.55 | 10/10 | $6,643 | $6,643 | 78% | 83% | +$2,997 | -$9,910 | 19.9% | $-9,707 (vs do-nothing $-9,930) |
| $217.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 10/10 | $6,867 | $6,867 | 75% | 80% | +$2,769 | -$9,400 | 18.9% | $-9,197 (vs do-nothing $-9,420) |
| $217.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.54 | 9/10 | $6,235 | $6,240 | 73% | 79% | +$2,403 | -$8,028 | 16.1% | $-7,823 (vs do-nothing $-8,046) |
| $215 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.96 | 5/10 | $7,350 | $7,377 | 72% | 79% | +$3,132 | -$6,000 | 12.0% | $-5,787 (vs do-nothing $-6,010) |
| $215 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.31 | 7/10 | $6,930 | $6,946 | 70% | 77% | +$2,536 | -$8,155 | 16.4% | $-7,946 (vs do-nothing $-8,169) |
| $217.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.80 | 10/10 | $6,333 | $6,333 | 69% | 77% | +$2,158 | -$7,660 | 15.4% | $-7,457 (vs do-nothing $-7,680) |
| $215 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.87 | 7/10 | $6,697 | $6,713 | 68% | 76% | +$2,284 | -$7,763 | 15.6% | $-7,554 (vs do-nothing $-7,777) |
| $215 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.40 | 7/10 | $6,491 | $6,507 | 66% | 75% | +$2,128 | -$7,392 | 14.8% | $-7,183 (vs do-nothing $-7,406) |
| $215 | 14d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.60 | 9/10 | $6,943 | $6,948 | 65% | 74% | +$1,910 | -$9,324 | 18.7% | $-9,119 (vs do-nothing $-9,342) |
| $215 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.75 | 8/10 | $6,333 | $6,344 | 63% | 74% | +$1,917 | -$7,368 | 14.8% | $-7,161 (vs do-nothing $-7,384) |
| $215 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $5.90 | 9/10 | $6,372 | $6,377 | 62% | 73% | +$1,709 | -$7,254 | 14.6% | $-7,049 (vs do-nothing $-7,272) |
| $212.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.92 | 3/10 | $6,570 | $6,608 | 61% | 73% | +$2,192 | -$4,062 | 8.2% | $-3,845 (vs do-nothing $-4,068) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $212.50 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 5/10 | $7,071 | $7,099 | 60% | 72% | +$2,062 | -$6,580 | 13.2% | $-6,367 (vs do-nothing $-6,590) |
| $212.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 5/10 | $6,500 | $6,527 | 59% | 72% | +$1,848 | -$6,280 | 12.6% | $-6,067 (vs do-nothing $-6,290) |
| $212.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.45 | 6/10 | $7,282 | $7,304 | 59% | 71% | +$1,989 | -$7,206 | 14.5% | $-6,995 (vs do-nothing $-7,218) |
| $212.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.90 | 7/10 | $6,883 | $6,900 | 57% | 71% | +$1,840 | -$7,392 | 14.8% | $-7,183 (vs do-nothing $-7,406) |
| $210 | 25d | 9 Oct 2026 | $8.30 | 7/10 | $6,972 | $6,988 | 52% | 68% | +$1,552 | -$7,462 | 15.0% | $-7,253 (vs do-nothing $-7,476) |
| $210 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.20 | 6/10 | $7,200 | $7,222 | 51% | 68% | +$1,666 | -$7,056 | 14.2% | $-6,845 (vs do-nothing $-7,068) |
| $210 | 14d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.90 | 5/10 | $6,321 | $6,349 | 51% | 68% | +$1,232 | -$6,530 | 13.1% | $-6,317 (vs do-nothing $-6,540) |
| $210 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.75 | 4/10 | $6,273 | $6,305 | 51% | 68% | +$1,457 | -$5,284 | 10.6% | $-5,069 (vs do-nothing $-5,292) |
| $210 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.15 | 4/10 | $6,867 | $6,899 | 51% | 68% | +$1,584 | -$5,524 | 11.1% | $-5,309 (vs do-nothing $-5,532) |
| $210 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $4.55 | 4/10 | $7,800 | $7,833 | 50% | 68% | +$1,833 | -$5,764 | 11.6% | $-5,549 (vs do-nothing $-5,772) |
| $210 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $4.15 | 2/10 | $6,225 | $6,269 | 50% | 68% | +$1,626 | -$2,962 | 5.9% | $-2,743 (vs do-nothing $-2,966) |
| $207.50 | 18d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.60 | 5/10 | $7,167 | $7,194 | 45% | 66% | +$1,406 | -$6,430 | 12.9% | $-6,217 (vs do-nothing $-6,440) |
| $207.50 | 11d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.25 | 4/10 | $7,909 | $7,942 | 43% | 65% | +$1,549 | -$5,684 | 11.4% | $-5,469 (vs do-nothing $-5,692) |
| $207.50 | 9d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.65 | 3/10 | $6,650 | $6,688 | 42% | 65% | +$1,292 | -$4,443 | 8.9% | $-4,226 (vs do-nothing $-4,449) |
| $207.50 | 7d | 21 Sep 2026 | $6.05 | 3/10 | $7,779 | $7,817 | 41% | 64% | +$1,466 | -$4,623 | 9.3% | $-4,406 (vs do-nothing $-4,629) |
| $207.50 | 4d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 2/10 | $8,550 | $8,594 | 39% | 64% | +$1,714 | -$3,152 | 6.3% | $-2,933 (vs do-nothing $-3,156) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.