10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $229.47 (banked floor $228.95) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $74,800 | (ND $49.80 + SW $25) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $10,177/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,418/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-11,775 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 3d | 6 × $220 | 82% | $5,100 | $3,386 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 10d | 9 × $220 | 72% | $5,643 | $1,564 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $225 | 18 Sep | 3d | 5.4% | 93%hist 96% | 13%hist 14% | +4pp | $260 | $2,600 | -$2,500 | $4,209 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $225 5.4% OTM over spot $213.49 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.27 mid) = $260 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $225) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $225.26) 94% EV / mo +$1,563 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,153/mo median; plan ~$1,464/mo after 68% keep · $2,558 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,021 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $237 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.23/sh now → $2.28 mid-life (likely $2.15–$4.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 224 simulated challenges: the $225 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $228 (overshoots $2.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $225 is $4 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $225.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $225): -$4,209 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,952 (+$7,823 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,229, the opportunity cost of earning $2,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,120, position total $-4,424 (+$7,351 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $222.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 4.2% | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 26% | +8pp | $376 | $3,760 | -$1,340 | $5,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $222.50 4.2% OTM over spot $213.49 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.48 mid) = $376 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,760/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $222.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $222.98) 90% EV / mo +$1,949 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,816/mo median; plan ~$1,915/mo after 68% keep · $3,767 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,429 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Sep 2026) $229 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.19/sh now → $2.26 mid-life (likely $2.26–$4.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $225 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $222.50 is $7 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $222.98 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $222.50): -$5,199 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,938 (+$6,837 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,215, the opportunity cost of earning $3,760/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,728, position total $-5,028 (+$6,747 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 6 × $220 | 18 Sep | 3d | 3.0% | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | +10pp | $510 | $5,100 | — | $5,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $220 3.0% OTM over spot $213.49 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $0.85 mid) = $510 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $220.85) 84% EV / mo +$2,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,269/mo median; plan ~$2,223/mo after 68% keep · $3,539 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$828 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $237 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.15/sh now → $2.23 mid-life (likely $2.30–$4.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 722 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $222 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $9 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $220.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $220): -$5,172 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $265): +$8 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,906 (+$6,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,184, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,318, position total $-4,614 (+$7,161 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $217.50 | 18 Sep | 3d | 1.9% | 71%hist 84% | 58%hist 44% | +17pp | $1,152 | $11,520 | +$6,420 | $8,423 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $217.50 1.9% OTM over spot $213.49 18 Sep 2026 (3d, $1.45 mid) = $1,152 credit for the 3d cycle → $11,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $217.50) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $218.95) 78% EV / mo +$3,703 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 92% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,290/mo median; plan ~$4,277/mo after 68% keep · $5,741 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 92% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$612 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $239 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.12/sh now → $2.21 mid-life (likely $2.62–$4.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,186 simulated challenges: the $218 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $220 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $217.50 is $12 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot ≥ $218.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $218)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $217.50): -$8,423 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,162 (+$3,613 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,439, the opportunity cost of earning $11,520/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,952, position total $-8,252 (+$3,523 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $230 | 25 Sep | 10d | 7.7% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +4pp | $510 | $1,530 | -$4,113 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $230 7.7% OTM over spot $213.49 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $0.52 mid) = $510 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,530/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $230.51) 92% EV / mo +$786 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,226/mo median; plan ~$834/mo after 68% keep · $1,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,064 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $237 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $2.96–$4.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $232 (overshoots $2.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $229.47: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $230.51 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $257 (+$12,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20, the opportunity cost of earning $1,530/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$870, position total $826 (+$12,601 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 8 × $222.50 | 25 Sep | 10d | 4.2% | 79%hist 84% | 43%hist 39% | +10pp | $1,176 | $3,528 | -$2,115 | $4,399 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $222.50 4.2% OTM over spot $213.49 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $1.48 mid) = $1,176 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,528/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $222.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $223.99) 82% EV / mo +$1,165 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,621/mo median; plan ~$1,782/mo after 68% keep · $3,495 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.0], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,590 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $234 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.89/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $3.55–$5.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $225 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $222.50 is $7 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $223.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $222.50): -$4,399 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$4 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,138 (+$7,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,415, the opportunity cost of earning $3,528/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,928, position total $-4,228 (+$7,547 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 9 × $220 | 25 Sep | 10d | 3.0% | 72%hist 84% | 56%hist 44% | +11pp | $1,881 | $5,643 | — | $6,641 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $220 3.0% OTM over spot $213.49 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $2.10 mid) = $1,881 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $222.10) 78% EV / mo +$1,618 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,347/mo median; plan ~$2,956/mo after 68% keep · $3,856 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.8], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,195 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 30 Sep 2026) $227 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.83/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,383 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $222 (overshoots $2.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $9 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $222.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $220): -$6,641 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $265): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,382 (+$5,393 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,659, the opportunity cost of earning $5,643/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,361, position total $-6,663 (+$5,112 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 9 × $215 | 25 Sep | 10d | 0.7% | 56%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | +17pp | $3,465 | $10,395 | +$4,752 | $9,557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 9 × $215 0.7% OTM over spot $213.49 25 Sep 2026 (10d, $3.90 mid) = $3,465 credit for the 10d cycle → $10,395/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $215) 56% Breach risk 44% POP (stays ≤ $218.90) 69% EV / mo +$1,800 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 88% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $6,659/mo median; plan ~$4,528/mo after 68% keep · $6,754 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 88% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 73% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$459 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $237 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 9 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.72/sh now → $3.34 mid-life (likely $4.56–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,179 simulated challenges: the $215 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $217 (overshoots $2.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $215 is $14 below CC-SS $229.47: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.96/sh (~25% of the $3.85 collected) or spot ≥ $218.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.83 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.47, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,775 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,032 − CC assignment net of premium (9 × $215): -$9,557 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $265): +$2 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,298 (+$2,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $277 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,575, the opportunity cost of earning $10,395/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.38 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,277, position total $-9,579 (+$2,196 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.753 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,032 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $277
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $220 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.85 | 6/10 | $5,100 | $5,124 | 82% | 84% | +$2,171 | -$5,172 | 10.4% | $-4,906 (vs do-nothing $-5,184) |
| $220 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.11 | 10/10 | $5,550 | $5,550 | 78% | 82% | +$1,843 | -$8,359 | 16.8% | $-8,102 (vs do-nothing $-8,379) |
| $220 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $1.62 | 9/10 | $5,468 | $5,474 | 74% | 79% | +$1,553 | -$7,064 | 14.2% | $-6,805 (vs do-nothing $-7,082) |
| $220 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.09 | 9/10 | $5,643 | $5,649 | 72% | 78% | +$1,618 | -$6,641 | 13.3% | $-6,382 (vs do-nothing $-6,659) |
| $217.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.44 | 4/10 | $5,760 | $5,796 | 71% | 78% | +$1,851 | -$4,212 | 8.5% | $-3,942 (vs do-nothing $-4,220) |
| $220 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $2.35 | 10/10 | $5,423 | $5,423 | 71% | 77% | +$1,428 | -$7,119 | 14.3% | $-6,862 (vs do-nothing $-7,139) |
| $217.50 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.78 | 6/10 | $5,340 | $5,364 | 69% | 76% | +$1,352 | -$6,114 | 12.3% | $-5,848 (vs do-nothing $-6,126) |
| $220 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.35 | 9/10 | $5,321 | $5,327 | 68% | 75% | +$1,377 | -$5,507 | 11.1% | $-5,248 (vs do-nothing $-5,525) |
| $217.50 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.37 | 6/10 | $5,333 | $5,357 | 66% | 74% | +$1,218 | -$5,760 | 11.6% | $-5,494 (vs do-nothing $-5,772) |
| $220 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.40 | 10/10 | $5,500 | $5,500 | 66% | 74% | +$1,366 | -$5,069 | 10.2% | $-4,812 (vs do-nothing $-5,089) |
| $217.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.87 | 6/10 | $5,166 | $5,190 | 65% | 73% | +$1,192 | -$5,460 | 11.0% | $-5,194 (vs do-nothing $-5,472) |
| $217.50 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.15 | 7/10 | $5,088 | $5,106 | 64% | 73% | +$1,083 | -$6,173 | 12.4% | $-5,910 (vs do-nothing $-6,187) |
| $217.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.25 | 7/10 | $5,250 | $5,268 | 62% | 72% | +$1,152 | -$5,403 | 10.9% | $-5,140 (vs do-nothing $-5,417) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $215 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.33 | 3/10 | $6,990 | $7,032 | 59% | 70% | +$1,542 | -$3,642 | 7.3% | $-3,370 (vs do-nothing $-3,648) |
| $215 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.70 | 4/10 | $5,400 | $5,436 | 58% | 70% | +$1,007 | -$4,708 | 9.5% | $-4,438 (vs do-nothing $-4,716) |
| $215 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.30 | 5/10 | $6,188 | $6,218 | 57% | 69% | +$1,037 | -$5,585 | 11.2% | $-5,317 (vs do-nothing $-5,595) |
| $215 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.85 | 5/10 | $5,775 | $5,805 | 56% | 69% | +$1,000 | -$5,310 | 10.7% | $-5,042 (vs do-nothing $-5,320) |
| $215 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $4.20 | 6/10 | $5,815 | $5,839 | 56% | 69% | +$1,039 | -$6,162 | 12.4% | $-5,896 (vs do-nothing $-6,174) |
| $215 | 15d | 30 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 6/10 | $5,400 | $5,424 | 56% | 69% | +$753 | -$5,982 | 12.0% | $-5,716 (vs do-nothing $-5,994) |
| $215 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.35 | 6/10 | $5,665 | $5,689 | 55% | 69% | +$1,066 | -$5,472 | 11.0% | $-5,206 (vs do-nothing $-5,484) |
| $215 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $6.50 | 7/10 | $5,688 | $5,706 | 55% | 69% | +$1,075 | -$5,578 | 11.2% | $-5,315 (vs do-nothing $-5,592) |
| $212.50 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $6.60 | 5/10 | $5,824 | $5,854 | 49% | 66% | +$902 | -$5,185 | 10.4% | $-4,917 (vs do-nothing $-5,195) |
| $212.50 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 5/10 | $6,231 | $6,261 | 48% | 65% | +$770 | -$5,785 | 11.6% | $-5,517 (vs do-nothing $-5,795) |
| $212.50 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 4/10 | $6,120 | $6,156 | 48% | 65% | +$805 | -$4,748 | 9.5% | $-4,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,756) |
| $212.50 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $4.50 | 4/10 | $6,750 | $6,786 | 47% | 65% | +$790 | -$4,988 | 10.0% | $-4,718 (vs do-nothing $-4,996) |
| $212.50 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 3/10 | $5,850 | $5,892 | 46% | 64% | +$717 | -$3,921 | 7.9% | $-3,649 (vs do-nothing $-3,927) |
| $212.50 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 2/10 | $7,100 | $7,148 | 45% | 64% | +$1,088 | -$2,684 | 5.4% | $-2,410 (vs do-nothing $-2,688) |
| $210 | 24d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.20 | 5/10 | $5,750 | $5,780 | 44% | 64% | +$801 | -$5,135 | 10.3% | $-4,867 (vs do-nothing $-5,145) |
| $210 | 17d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.05 | 4/10 | $5,682 | $5,718 | 42% | 63% | +$724 | -$4,568 | 9.2% | $-4,298 (vs do-nothing $-4,576) |
| $210 | 15d | 30 Sep 2026 | $6.45 | 4/10 | $5,160 | $5,196 | 41% | 63% | $-58 | -$5,208 | 10.5% | $-4,938 (vs do-nothing $-5,216) |
| $210 | 13d | 28 Sep 2026 | $6.85 | 4/10 | $6,323 | $6,359 | 40% | 62% | +$590 | -$5,048 | 10.1% | $-4,778 (vs do-nothing $-5,056) |
| $210 | 10d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.55 | 3/10 | $5,895 | $5,937 | 39% | 62% | +$572 | -$3,876 | 7.8% | $-3,604 (vs do-nothing $-3,882) |
| $210 | 8d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 3/10 | $6,750 | $6,792 | 38% | 61% | +$565 | -$4,041 | 8.1% | $-3,769 (vs do-nothing $-4,047) |
| $210 | 6d | 21 Sep 2026 | $5.40 | 2/10 | $5,400 | $5,448 | 35% | 60% | +$401 | -$2,814 | 5.7% | $-2,540 (vs do-nothing $-2,818) |
| $210 | 3d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.10 | 1/10 | $5,100 | $5,154 | 33% | 59% | +$458 | -$1,437 | 2.9% | $-1,162 (vs do-nothing $-1,439) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.