10 contracts (1,000 sh) | BE SS: $264.80 | CC-SS: $229.66 (banked floor $229.14) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $74,800 | (ND $49.80 + SW $25) x 1000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,143/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,406/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-11,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 10 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 18 Sep 2026 · 2d | 10 × $222.50 | 90% | $6,150 | $4,395 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 25 Sep 2026 · 9d | 8 × $220 | 71% | $6,293 | $2,306 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $230 | 25 Sep | 9d | 7.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +6pp | $550 | $1,833 | -$4,317 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $230 7.4% OTM over spot $214.07 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.56 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $230.56) 92% EV / mo +$1,055 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,475/mo median; plan ~$1,003/mo after 68% keep · $2,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,154 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $236 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.24/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $232 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $229.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $230.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $256 (+$11,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$900, position total $705 (+$12,205 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 6 × $222.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.9% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +8pp | $246 | $3,690 | -$2,460 | $4,051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 6 × $222.50 3.9% OTM over spot $214.07 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $246 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,690/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $222.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $222.91) 91% EV / mo +$2,232 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,969/mo median; plan ~$2,019/mo after 68% keep · $2,505 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,030 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $238 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 6 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.01/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $2.26–$4.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 320 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $225 (overshoots $2.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $222.50 is $7 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $222.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (6 × $222.50): -$4,051 + Conservative CC premium (4 × $265): +$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,783 (+$7,717 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,069, the opportunity cost of earning $3,690/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,124, position total $-3,507 (+$7,993 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 10 × $222.50 | 18 Sep | 2d | 3.9% | 90%hist 96% | 20%hist 14% | +12pp | $410 | $6,150 | — | $6,751 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $222.50 3.9% OTM over spot $214.07 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $410 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $222.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $222.91) 91% EV / mo +$3,721 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 89% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,751/mo median; plan ~$3,231/mo after 68% keep · $3,725 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 89% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,717 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $238 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.01/sh now → $2.13 mid-life (likely $2.21–$3.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 302 simulated challenges: the $222 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $225 (overshoots $2.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $222.50 is $7 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $222.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $222.50): -$6,751 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,495 (+$5,005 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,781, the opportunity cost of earning $6,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,540, position total $-6,935 (+$4,565 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 10 × $220 | 18 Sep | 2d | 2.8% | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | +15pp | $760 | $11,400 | +$5,250 | $8,901 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $220 2.8% OTM over spot $214.07 18 Sep 2026 (2d, $0.77 mid) = $760 credit for the 2d cycle → $11,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $220.77) 86% EV / mo +$5,759 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +15pp 94% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,713/mo median; plan ~$5,245/mo after 68% keep · $6,000 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 94% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,343 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 2 Oct 2026) $233 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.97/sh now → $2.10 mid-life (likely $2.37–$4.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 581 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $222 (overshoots $2.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $10 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $220.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $220): -$8,901 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,645 (+$2,855 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,931, the opportunity cost of earning $11,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,690, position total $-9,085 (+$2,415 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 10 × $230 | 25 Sep | 9d | 7.4% | 92%hist 96% | 17%hist 14% | +6pp | $550 | $1,833 | -$4,460 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $230 7.4% OTM over spot $214.07 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $0.56 mid) = $550 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $230.56) 92% EV / mo +$1,055 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,475/mo median; plan ~$1,003/mo after 68% keep · $2,213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,154 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $236 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.24/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $232 (overshoots $2.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $229.66: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $230.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $256 (+$11,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30, the opportunity cost of earning $1,833/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$900, position total $705 (+$12,205 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 10 × $225 | 25 Sep | 9d | 5.1% | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | +10pp | $1,160 | $3,867 | -$2,427 | $3,501 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 10 × $225 5.1% OTM over spot $214.07 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $1.17 mid) = $1,160 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $225) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $226.17) 86% EV / mo +$1,741 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +10pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,385/mo median; plan ~$2,302/mo after 68% keep · $3,474 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,463 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $236 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 10 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.12/sh now → $3.62 mid-life (likely $3.64–$5.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 740 simulated challenges: the $225 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $227 (overshoots $2.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $225 is $5 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.16 collected) or spot ≥ $226.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (10 × $225): -$3,501 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,245 (+$8,255 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,531, the opportunity cost of earning $3,867/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,290, position total $-3,685 (+$7,815 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 8 × $220 | 25 Sep | 9d | 2.8% | 71%hist 84% | 59%hist 44% | +12pp | $1,888 | $6,293 | — | $5,841 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $220 2.8% OTM over spot $214.07 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $2.38 mid) = $1,888 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,293/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $220) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $222.38) 78% EV / mo +$2,079 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 90% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,613/mo median; plan ~$3,137/mo after 68% keep · $3,819 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-1.7], measured ONLY among the 90% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$946 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $236 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.01/sh now → $3.54 mid-life (likely $4.15–$5.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,434 simulated challenges: the $220 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $222 (overshoots $2.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $220 is $10 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.36 collected) or spot ≥ $222.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $220)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $220): -$5,841 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,579 (+$5,921 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,865, the opportunity cost of earning $6,293/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,272, position total $-5,661 (+$5,839 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 8 × $215 | 25 Sep | 9d | 0.4% | 54%hist 70% | 93%hist 90% | +12pp | $3,480 | $11,600 | +$5,307 | $8,249 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 8 × $215 0.4% OTM over spot $214.07 25 Sep 2026 (9d, $4.38 mid) = $3,480 credit for the 9d cycle → $11,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $215) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $219.38) 69% EV / mo +$2,525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +12pp 93% whole by 9mo vs 81% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,867/mo median; plan ~$5,350/mo after 68% keep · $3,615 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.3-1.5], measured ONLY among the 93% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 75% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$710 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 9 Oct 2026) $236 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 8 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.90/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $4.78–$6.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,256 simulated challenges: the $215 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 9, at $218 (overshoots $2.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $215 is $15 below CC-SS $229.66: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.09/sh (~25% of the $4.35 collected) or spot ≥ $219.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $215)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $229.66, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,756 − CC assignment net of premium (8 × $215): -$8,249 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $265): +$6 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,987 (+$3,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,273, the opportunity cost of earning $11,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $231.45 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,680, position total $-8,069 (+$3,431 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 39 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.754 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,756 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $286
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $222.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.41 | 10/10 | $6,150 | $6,150 | 90% | 91% | +$3,721 | -$6,751 | 13.6% | $-6,495 (vs do-nothing $-6,781) |
| $220 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $0.76 | 5/10 | $5,700 | $5,738 | 83% | 86% | +$2,880 | -$4,451 | 8.9% | $-4,180 (vs do-nothing $-4,466) |
| $220 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.17 | 8/10 | $5,616 | $5,631 | 78% | 82% | +$2,246 | -$6,793 | 13.6% | $-6,531 (vs do-nothing $-6,817) |
| $220 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $1.77 | 8/10 | $6,069 | $6,084 | 73% | 79% | +$2,025 | -$6,313 | 12.7% | $-6,051 (vs do-nothing $-6,337) |
| $217.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $1.39 | 3/10 | $6,255 | $6,308 | 71% | 78% | +$2,455 | -$3,231 | 6.5% | $-2,955 (vs do-nothing $-3,240) |
| $220 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.36 | 8/10 | $6,293 | $6,308 | 71% | 78% | +$2,079 | -$5,841 | 11.7% | $-5,579 (vs do-nothing $-5,865) |
| $220 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $2.66 | 9/10 | $5,985 | $5,992 | 70% | 77% | +$1,820 | -$6,301 | 12.7% | $-6,042 (vs do-nothing $-6,328) |
| $220 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $3.00 | 9/10 | $5,786 | $5,793 | 68% | 76% | +$1,481 | -$5,995 | 12.0% | $-5,736 (vs do-nothing $-6,022) |
| $217.50 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $1.90 | 5/10 | $5,700 | $5,737 | 67% | 75% | +$1,743 | -$5,131 | 10.3% | $-4,860 (vs do-nothing $-5,146) |
| $220 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $3.75 | 8/10 | $5,625 | $5,640 | 67% | 75% | +$1,606 | -$4,729 | 9.5% | $-4,467 (vs do-nothing $-4,753) |
| $217.50 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $2.59 | 6/10 | $6,660 | $6,690 | 65% | 74% | +$1,835 | -$5,743 | 11.5% | $-5,475 (vs do-nothing $-5,761) |
| $220 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $4.90 | 9/10 | $5,752 | $5,760 | 64% | 74% | +$1,533 | -$4,285 | 8.6% | $-4,026 (vs do-nothing $-4,312) |
| $217.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $3.20 | 6/10 | $6,400 | $6,430 | 63% | 73% | +$1,688 | -$5,377 | 10.8% | $-5,109 (vs do-nothing $-5,395) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $217.50 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $3.55 | 7/10 | $6,212 | $6,235 | 62% | 72% | +$1,452 | -$6,028 | 12.1% | $-5,763 (vs do-nothing $-6,049) |
| $217.50 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $4.05 | 7/10 | $6,075 | $6,097 | 61% | 72% | +$1,437 | -$5,678 | 11.4% | $-5,413 (vs do-nothing $-5,699) |
| $217.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $4.70 | 7/10 | $6,169 | $6,191 | 60% | 72% | +$1,493 | -$5,223 | 10.5% | $-4,958 (vs do-nothing $-5,244) |
| $215 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $2.38 | 2/10 | $7,140 | $7,200 | 56% | 70% | +$1,961 | -$2,456 | 4.9% | $-2,176 (vs do-nothing $-2,462) |
| $215 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $2.94 | 4/10 | $7,056 | $7,101 | 55% | 69% | +$1,626 | -$4,688 | 9.4% | $-4,415 (vs do-nothing $-4,700) |
| $215 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $3.65 | 4/10 | $6,257 | $6,302 | 55% | 69% | +$1,296 | -$4,404 | 8.8% | $-4,131 (vs do-nothing $-4,416) |
| $215 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $4.35 | 4/10 | $5,800 | $5,845 | 54% | 69% | +$1,262 | -$4,124 | 8.3% | $-3,851 (vs do-nothing $-4,136) |
| $215 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $4.70 | 5/10 | $5,875 | $5,912 | 54% | 69% | +$1,213 | -$4,981 | 10.0% | $-4,710 (vs do-nothing $-4,996) |
| $215 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $5.20 | 5/10 | $5,571 | $5,609 | 54% | 69% | +$1,101 | -$4,731 | 9.5% | $-4,460 (vs do-nothing $-4,746) |
| $215 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $5.85 | 6/10 | $6,581 | $6,611 | 54% | 69% | +$1,363 | -$5,287 | 10.6% | $-5,019 (vs do-nothing $-5,305) |
| $215 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $7.15 | 6/10 | $5,596 | $5,626 | 54% | 69% | +$1,226 | -$4,507 | 9.0% | $-4,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,525) |
| $212.50 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $7.20 | 5/10 | $6,750 | $6,788 | 47% | 66% | +$1,193 | -$4,981 | 10.0% | $-4,710 (vs do-nothing $-4,996) |
| $212.50 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $6.55 | 4/10 | $5,614 | $5,659 | 47% | 66% | +$918 | -$4,244 | 8.5% | $-3,971 (vs do-nothing $-4,256) |
| $212.50 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $6.00 | 4/10 | $6,000 | $6,045 | 46% | 65% | +$975 | -$4,464 | 9.0% | $-4,191 (vs do-nothing $-4,476) |
| $212.50 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $5.65 | 3/10 | $5,650 | $5,702 | 46% | 65% | +$932 | -$3,453 | 6.9% | $-3,177 (vs do-nothing $-3,462) |
| $212.50 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $5.20 | 3/10 | $6,686 | $6,738 | 45% | 65% | +$1,287 | -$3,588 | 7.2% | $-3,312 (vs do-nothing $-3,597) |
| $212.50 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $4.25 | 3/10 | $7,650 | $7,702 | 43% | 64% | +$1,228 | -$3,873 | 7.8% | $-3,597 (vs do-nothing $-3,882) |
| $210 | 23d | 9 Oct 2026 | $9.90 | 5/10 | $6,457 | $6,494 | 42% | 64% | +$1,095 | -$4,881 | 9.8% | $-4,610 (vs do-nothing $-4,896) |
| $212.50 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $3.75 | 1/10 | $5,625 | $5,692 | 41% | 64% | +$1,059 | -$1,341 | 2.7% | $-1,058 (vs do-nothing $-1,344) |
| $210 | 16d | 2 Oct 2026 | $8.70 | 4/10 | $6,525 | $6,570 | 41% | 63% | +$961 | -$4,384 | 8.8% | $-4,111 (vs do-nothing $-4,396) |
| $210 | 14d | 30 Sep 2026 | $8.00 | 4/10 | $6,857 | $6,902 | 40% | 63% | +$850 | -$4,664 | 9.4% | $-4,391 (vs do-nothing $-4,676) |
| $210 | 12d | 28 Sep 2026 | $7.55 | 3/10 | $5,662 | $5,715 | 38% | 62% | +$738 | -$3,633 | 7.3% | $-3,357 (vs do-nothing $-3,642) |
| $210 | 9d | 25 Sep 2026 | $7.25 | 3/10 | $7,250 | $7,303 | 37% | 62% | +$959 | -$3,723 | 7.5% | $-3,447 (vs do-nothing $-3,732) |
| $210 | 7d | 23 Sep 2026 | $6.80 | 2/10 | $5,829 | $5,889 | 35% | 62% | +$859 | -$2,572 | 5.2% | $-2,292 (vs do-nothing $-2,578) |
| $210 | 5d | 21 Sep 2026 | $6.20 | 2/10 | $7,440 | $7,500 | 32% | 61% | +$1,133 | -$2,692 | 5.4% | $-2,412 (vs do-nothing $-2,698) |
| $210 | 2d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.45 | 1/10 | $8,175 | $8,242 | 27% | 59% | +$961 | -$1,421 | 2.9% | $-1,138 (vs do-nothing $-1,424) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 10 contracts at the conservative CC.