35 contracts (3,500 sh) | BE SS: $18.50 | CC-SS: $16.72 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $29,750 | (ND $8.50 + SW $0) x 3500 |
| Normal income ref | $3,478/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 35 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 23 Oct 2026 · 2d | 29 × $14.50 | 89% | $1,740 | $1,592 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 30 Oct 2026 · 9d | 29 × $14.50 | 77% | $1,740 | $254 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 35 × $16 | 6 Nov | 16d | 17.1% | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 14% | +2pp | $280 | $525 | -$1,215 | $2,240 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $16 17.1% OTM over spot $13.66 6 Nov 2026 (16d, $0.09 mid) = $280 credit for the 16d cycle → $525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $16) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $16.09) 92% EV / mo +$240 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 63% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $388/mo median; plan ~$264/mo after 68% keep · $1,528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.0], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,758 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 67% POP 52% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.82/sh now → $0.58 mid-life (likely $0.45–$0.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 390 simulated challenges: the $16 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 16, at $16 (overshoots $0.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $16 is $1 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $16.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $16)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $16): -$2,240 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,511 (+$6,414 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,610, the opportunity cost of earning $525/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,375, position total $-2,921 (+$6,004 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 23 Oct | 2d | 6.1% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 24% | +3pp | $80 | $1,200 | -$540 | $4,360 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 6.1% OTM over spot $13.66 23 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $80 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 90% EV / mo +$531 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 69% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $913/mo median; plan ~$621/mo after 68% keep · $2,756 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$351 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.22–$0.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 234 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,360 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $16.50): -$270 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,901 (+$4,024 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,000, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,580, position total $-5,311 (+$3,614 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 29 × $14.50 | 23 Oct | 2d | 6.1% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 24% | +9pp | $116 | $1,740 | — | $6,322 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $14.50 6.1% OTM over spot $13.66 23 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.04 mid) = $116 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $14.54) 90% EV / mo +$770 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,180/mo median; plan ~$803/mo after 68% keep · $4,275 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$509 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.30/sh now → $0.22 mid-life (likely $0.23–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $15 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $14.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $14.50): -$6,322 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $16.50): -$108 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,701 (+$2,224 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,800, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,091, position total $-7,111 (+$1,814 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $14 | 23 Oct | 2d | 2.5% | 73%hist 82% | 54%hist 44% | +17pp | $238 | $3,570 | +$1,830 | $4,386 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $14 2.5% OTM over spot $13.66 23 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.15 mid) = $238 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,570/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $14.14) 81% EV / mo +$1,836 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +17pp 80% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~6.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,838/mo median; plan ~$1,250/mo after 68% keep · $5,286 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 80% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$116 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $17 @ 93% POP 93% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.29/sh now → $0.21 mid-life (likely $0.24–$0.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 999 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $14 (overshoots $0.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $14.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $14): -$4,386 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (18 × $16.50): -$324 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,981 (+$3,944 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,080, the opportunity cost of earning $3,570/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,423, position total $-5,391 (+$3,534 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $14.50 | 30 Oct | 9d | 6.1% | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 41% | +4pp | $360 | $1,200 | -$540 | $4,080 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $14.50 6.1% OTM over spot $13.66 30 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid) = $360 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $14.70) 81% EV / mo +$390 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $712/mo median; plan ~$485/mo after 68% keep · $3,534 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [0.9-3.8], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$419 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,091 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $14.50): -$4,080 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (15 × $16.50): -$270 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,621 (+$4,304 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,720, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,300, position total $-5,031 (+$3,894 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 29 × $14.50 | 30 Oct | 9d | 6.1% | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 41% | +8pp | $522 | $1,740 | — | $5,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 29 × $14.50 6.1% OTM over spot $13.66 30 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.20 mid) = $522 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,740/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $14.70) 81% EV / mo +$566 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 66% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $910/mo median; plan ~$619/mo after 68% keep · $3,756 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.2-3.5], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$608 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 29 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.55/sh now → $0.39 mid-life (likely $0.40–$0.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,083 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $15 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14.50 is $2 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $14.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (29 × $14.50): -$5,916 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $16.50): -$108 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,295 (+$2,630 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,394, the opportunity cost of earning $1,740/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$7,685, position total $-6,705 (+$2,220 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 35 × $14 | 30 Oct | 9d | 2.5% | 63%hist 64% | 76%hist 68% | +13pp | $1,050 | $3,500 | +$1,760 | $8,470 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $14 2.5% OTM over spot $13.66 30 Oct 2026 (9d, $0.34 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 9d cycle → $3,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $14) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $14.35) 73% EV / mo +$540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +13pp 71% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,336/mo median; plan ~$909/mo after 68% keep · $4,970 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-3.9], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$266 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 13 Nov 2026) $16 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $0.53/sh now → $0.38 mid-life (likely $0.48–$0.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,860 simulated challenges: the $14 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $14 (overshoots $0.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $14 is $3 below CC-SS $16.72: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.30 collected) or spot ≥ $14.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $14)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $13.94 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $16.72, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,654 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $14): -$8,470 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,741 (+$184 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-901 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,840, the opportunity cost of earning $3,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $17.33 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,605, position total $-9,151 ($-226 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.808 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,654 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-901
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $14.50 | 2d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 29/35 | $116 | $1,740 | $1,785 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 24% | 90% | +$770 | -$6,322 | 21.3% | 1.8mo | $-6,701 (vs do-nothing $-5,800) |
| $14.50 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | 29/35 | $522 | $1,740 | $1,785 | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 41% | 81% | +$566 | -$5,916 | 19.9% | 1.7mo | $-6,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,394) |
| $14 | 2d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.14 | 9/35 | $126 | $1,890 | $2,085 | 73%hist 82% | 54%hist 44% | 81% | +$972 | -$2,322 | 7.8% | 0.7mo | $-3,061 (vs do-nothing $-2,160) |
| $14.50 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.31 | 30/35 | $930 | $1,744 | $1,781 | 71%hist 82% | 60%hist 44% | 77% | +$357 | -$5,730 | 19.3% | 1.6mo | $-6,091 (vs do-nothing $-5,190) |
| $14.50 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.41 | 33/35 | $1,353 | $1,765 | $1,780 | 69%hist 64% | 65%hist 56% | 76% | +$364 | -$5,973 | 20.1% | 1.7mo | $-6,280 (vs do-nothing $-5,379) |
| $14 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.30 | 18/35 | $540 | $1,800 | $1,928 | 63%hist 64% | 76%hist 68% | 73% | +$278 | -$4,356 | 14.6% | 1.3mo | $-4,933 (vs do-nothing $-4,032) |
| $14 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.47 | 20/35 | $940 | $1,762 | $1,875 | 61%hist 64% | 82%hist 78% | 71% | +$258 | -$4,500 | 15.1% | 1.3mo | $-5,041 (vs do-nothing $-4,140) |
| $14 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 23/35 | $1,334 | $1,740 | $1,830 | 60%hist 68% | 85%hist 78% | 71% | +$256 | -$4,922 | 16.5% | 1.4mo | $-5,409 (vs do-nothing $-4,508) |
| $13.50 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.81 | 17/35 | $1,377 | $1,796 | $1,931 | 49% | 100%hist 90% | 67% | +$195 | -$4,097 | 13.8% | 1.2mo | $-4,692 (vs do-nothing $-3,791) |
| $13.50 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.69 | 14/35 | $966 | $1,811 | $1,969 | 48% | 100%hist 90% | 66% | +$171 | -$3,542 | 11.9% | 1.0mo | $-4,191 (vs do-nothing $-3,290) |
| $13.50 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.54 | 10/35 | $540 | $1,800 | $1,988 | 46% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$206 | -$2,680 | 9.0% | 0.8mo | $-3,401 (vs do-nothing $-2,500) |
| $13.50 | 2d | 23 Oct 2026 | $0.34 | 4/35 | $136 | $2,040 | $2,272 | 39% | 100%hist 90% | 65% | +$365 | -$1,152 | 3.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,981 (vs do-nothing $-1,080) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $16 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.01 | 35/35 | $35 | $117 | $117 | 95%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | $-30 | -$2,485 | 8.4% | 0.7mo | $-2,756 (vs do-nothing $-1,855) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $17 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.02 | 35/35 | $70 | $91 | $91 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 14% | 95% | $-11 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $-201 (vs do-nothing +$700) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $16.50 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.04 | 35/35 | $140 | $262 | $262 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 14% | 94% | +$81 | -$630 | 2.1% | 0.2mo | $-901 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $16.50 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.08 | 35/35 | $280 | $365 | $365 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 14% | 93% | +$178 | -$490 | 1.6% | 0.1mo | $-761 (vs do-nothing +$140) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15.50 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.04 | 35/35 | $140 | $467 | $467 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 14% | 92% | +$143 | -$4,130 | 13.9% | 1.2mo | $-4,401 (vs do-nothing $-3,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $16 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.08 | 35/35 | $280 | $525 | $525 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 14% | 92% | +$240 | -$2,240 | 7.5% | 0.6mo | $-2,511 (vs do-nothing $-1,610) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $16 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 35/35 | $420 | $548 | $548 | 89%hist 86% | 24%hist 24% | 90% | +$215 | -$2,100 | 7.1% | 0.6mo | $-2,371 (vs do-nothing $-1,470) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15.50 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.12 | 35/35 | $420 | $787 | $787 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 24% | 88% | +$230 | -$3,850 | 12.9% | 1.1mo | $-4,121 (vs do-nothing $-3,220) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15 | 9d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.09 | 35/35 | $315 | $1,050 | $1,050 | 85%hist 86% | 30%hist 31% | 87% | +$267 | -$5,705 | 19.2% | 1.6mo | $-5,976 (vs do-nothing $-5,075) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15.50 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.19 | 35/35 | $665 | $867 | $867 | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 31% | 86% | +$298 | -$3,605 | 12.1% | 1.0mo | $-3,876 (vs do-nothing $-2,975) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15 | 16d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.20 | 35/35 | $700 | $1,312 | $1,312 | 80%hist 82% | 42%hist 41% | 83% | +$352 | -$5,320 | 17.9% | 1.5mo | $-5,591 (vs do-nothing $-4,690) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $15 | 23d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.28 | 35/35 | $980 | $1,278 | $1,278 | 77%hist 82% | 48%hist 41% | 81% | +$341 | -$5,040 | 16.9% | 1.4mo | $-5,311 (vs do-nothing $-4,410) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 35 contracts at the conservative CC.