FORTRESS FIGHT: PORTFOLIO

41 fortress slices across 4 account(s) | 1 deep drawdown (FIGHT) | 8 skipped (CSV) | 0 uncapped above water | 32 capped (out of scope)

FIGHT income if all primaries filled: $2,700/mo (51% of normal target) · E[net] after expected escape cost $1,300/mo
ASSIGNMENT EXPOSURE across every open short call: $1,119,029 locked in if all 12 call(s) struck below their fortress' recovery-to-whole floor were assigned today, before premium.

⚔ FIGHT: underwater & uncapped every ladder rung side by side; 🎯 = the recommended pick | click a rung for its roll menu + decision panel, ESC closes | fortress link = full dashboard | ranked by today's move: sell into strength (▲ UP BIG) first

POSITION				CC-SAFE	INCOME LADDER · SAFEST ⟶ RICHEST				RECOVERY
Fortress	Ct	Price	CC-SS	CC-safe ≥ floor	🛡 Safe yield	33% normal	50% normal	100% normal	Banked	Cap @ CC-SS	↑ whole
GLXY ↗ ⚐⚡ER 13d ▼ DOWN -4.4% Main:1299 · This Fri	25	$21.09	$35.68	25 × $35 16 Oct (9d) $25 cyc · $83/mo 99+% survhist 96% · T:1%hist 3%	25 × $25 16 Oct (9d)alt tenor $300 cyc · $1,000/mo 91% survhist 96% · T:18%hist 13%	14 × $22.50 9 Oct (2d) $126 cyc · $1,890/mo 83% survhist 87% · T:35%hist 31%	🎯 20 × $22.50 9 Oct (2d) $180 cyc · $2,700/mo 83% survhist 87% · T:35%hist 31%	10 × $21 9 Oct (2d) $390 cyc · $5,850/mo 49% surv · T:100%hist 90%	$10,872	-$26,179 (473.8% IC)	69.1%
TOTAL (1)	25	following every 🎯 $180 cyc · $2,700/mo		$25 cyc · $83/mo	$300 cyc · $1,000/mo	$126 cyc · $1,890/mo	$180 cyc · $2,700/mo	$390 cyc · $5,850/mo	$10,872	-$26,179

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$35	23 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.43/sh	+$1,082 cycle +$1,107	66% surv 54%	-$1,664 NOT cap gain +$28,986
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$35	23 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.22/sh	+$544 cycle +$569	67% surv 56%	-$1,390 NOT cap gain +$29,260
Max even-money escape in the band	~$37	30 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.25/sh	+$616 cycle +$641	71% surv 63%	+$1,690 SAFE cap gain +$32,340
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $34.65	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $35-35.04	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $35.04	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$35.00 (5.1σ)	$25	$-2,745	+$27,905	+$12,500
+2.5%	$35.88 (5.5σ)	$-2,162	$-3,179	+$27,471	+$12,500
+5%	$36.75 (5.8σ)	$-4,350	$-3,612	+$27,038	+$12,500
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.9σ)	$-11,750	$-5,077	+$25,573	+$12,500

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (25 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$26	30 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.39/sh	+$983 cycle +$1,283 [+$758…+$1,563] · 97% credit	71% surv 61%	-$19,723 NOT cap gain +$10,927
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$25	23 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.25/sh	+$633 cycle +$933 [+$445…+$1,146] · 93% credit	66% surv 53%	-$21,887 NOT cap gain +$8,763
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$25	23 Oct 2026	12d left	+$0.07/sh	+$173 cycle +$473 [-$84…+$662] · 69% credit	67% surv 57%	-$21,536 NOT cap gain +$9,114
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$27	30 Oct 2026	18d left	-$0.07/sh	-$164 cycle +$136 [-$522…+$377] · 43% credit	74% surv 68%	-$18,865 NOT cap gain +$11,785
budget: banked $300 debit $164 (55% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$136 cash · rolled 25 ct earn ≈ $4,218/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $24.75	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $25-25.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $25.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$25.00 (1.4σ)	$300	$-22,520	+$8,130	+$275
+2.5%	$25.62 (1.7σ)	$-1,262	$-22,830	+$7,820	-$1,287
+5%	$26.25 (1.9σ)	$-2,825	$-23,139	+$7,511	-$2,850
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (6.9σ)	$-36,475	$-29,802	+$848	-$12,225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (14 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	30 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.58/sh	+$809 cycle +$935 [+$80…+$763] · 77% credit	71% surv 61%	-$25,072 NOT cap gain +$5,578
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	30 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$204 cycle +$330 [-$664…+$135] · 42% credit	74% surv 69%	-$23,673 NOT cap gain +$6,977
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	16 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.10/sh	+$137 cycle +$263 [-$592…+$83] · 39% credit	64% surv 52%	-$27,559 NOT cap gain +$3,091

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $22-22.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $22.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$22.50 (1.1σ)	$126	$-27,696	+$2,954	+$112
+2.5%	$23.06 (1.5σ)	$-661	$-27,356	+$3,294	-$675
+5%	$23.62 (2.0σ)	$-1,449	$-27,015	+$3,635	-$1,463
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (14.6σ)	$-23,968	$-27,965	+$2,685	-$10,388

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$23	30 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.58/sh	+$1,156 cycle +$1,336 [+$219…+$1,105] · 80% credit	71% surv 61%	-$24,677 NOT cap gain +$5,973
Max even-money escape in the band	~$24	30 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$291 cycle +$471 [-$825…+$218] · 42% credit	74% surv 69%	-$23,538 NOT cap gain +$7,112
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$22	16 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.10/sh	+$196 cycle +$376 [-$740…+$139] · 40% credit	64% surv 52%	-$27,452 NOT cap gain +$3,198

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $22.27	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $22-22.67	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $22.67	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$22.50 (1.1σ)	$180	$-27,648	+$3,002	+$160
+2.5%	$23.06 (1.5σ)	$-945	$-27,645	+$3,005	-$965
+5%	$23.62 (2.0σ)	$-2,070	$-27,642	+$3,008	-$2,090
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (14.6σ)	$-34,240	$-32,417	-$1,767	-$14,840

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (10 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$21	16 Oct 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$84 cycle +$474	64% surv 52%	-$30,161 NOT cap gain +$489
Max even-money escape in the band	~$23	30 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.06/sh	+$60 cycle +$450	76% surv 71%	-$26,365 NOT cap gain +$4,285
SS $40 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$25	30 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.22/sh	-$220 cycle +$170	85% surv 83%	-$22,636 NOT cap gain +$8,014
budget: banked $390 debit $220 (56% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$170 cash · rolled 10 ct earn ≈ $616/mo while parked; 15 ct free to re-sell

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $20.79	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $21-21.71	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $21.71	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$21.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$390	$-30,245	+$405	+$380
+2.5%	$21.52 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-135	$-29,908	+$742	-$145
+5%	$22.05 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-660	$-29,380	+$1,270	-$670
SS (= V-bounce)	$39.71 (14.6σ)	$-18,320	$-26,197	+$4,453	-$8,620

⏱ TRIPWIRE STATUS, 33 active short call(s) 1 watch · 5 harvest

The one rule, applied to live marks: roll when remaining time value ≤ max($0.04, 25% of collected) or spot at/past breakeven (strike + premium). Statuses refresh on every run; challenges happen during US RTH (your night), so a TRIPPED row here means act at the open or set the order now.

Fortress

Acct

Call

Spot

Breakeven

Mark

Time value

Status

Action

AAPL

RetireInc:7291

5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (5d)

$334.60

$341.68

$1.46

WATCH ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC880

Main:1299

5x $1125C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$1,027.21

$1,130.50

$0.65

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

APP

RetireInc:7291

1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$270.86

$301.91

$0.12

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HOOD

Joint:1782

10x $120C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$108.05

$120.79

$0.07

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRCL

Neville:0865

5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$79.79

$92.06

$0.10

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

RKLB

RetireInc:7291

6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$71.40

$90.54

$0.12

HARVEST ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COPX

Joint:1782

20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$83.70

$89.65

$0.28

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SNDK

Neville:0865

1x $1760C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$1,646.02

$1,771.82

$4.20

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC45

Neville:0865

20x $45C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$39.92

$45.20

$0.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC50

RetireInc:7291

20x $45C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$39.92

$45.20

$0.06

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLXY

Main:1299

100x $24C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)

$21.06

$24.18

$0.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMD

Main:1299

2x $685C 12 Oct 2026 (5d)

$641.24

$689.30

$1.70

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC300

Neville:0865

15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$340.87

$357.01

$1.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC310

Joint:1782

5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$340.87

$359.26

$1.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GOOG-LC340

Neville:0865

5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$340.87

$362.52

$1.12

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

AMZN

Joint:1782

5x $275C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$253.53

$275.40

$0.26

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

INTC

Neville:0865

5x $123C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$112.77

$124.38

$1.27

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

HIMS

Main:1299

15x $32.5C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$29.14

$33.01

$0.32

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MU-LC970

Neville:0865

2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)

$1,027.21

$1,160.10

$3.05

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IGV

Main:1299

12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)

$110.09

$116.22

$1.31

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

NVDA

Main:1299

10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)

$237.63

$252.15

$1.51

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

CRWV

Neville:0865

5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)

$89.12

$101.78

$1.74

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC500

Main:1299

25x $210C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)

$178.73

$213.03

$1.48

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPY

Neville:0865

12x $800C 30 Oct 2026 (23d)

$774.53

$803.08

$1.60

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

DELL

Main:1299

3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (23d)

$579.78

$663.52

$10.82

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

SPCX

Neville:0865

5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (23d)

$168.84

$196.56

$1.40

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC125

RetireInc:7291

4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)

$155.90

$180.96

$9.00

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

QCOM

RetireInc:7291

5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)

$177.73

$224.53

$2.38

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1299

Main:1299

20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)

$39.92

$61.43

$0.66

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

IREN-LC25-1782

Joint:1782

20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)

$39.92

$61.42

$0.66

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

GLD

Main:1299

10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (72d)

$374.74

$419.00

$4.17

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

COIN-LC165

Main:1299

8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (72d)

$178.73

$278.82

$3.01

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

MSTR-LC180

Joint:1782

10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (100d)

$155.90

$211.95

$9.35

OK ▸

🟢 HOLD · theta is winning why ▸

⏸ SKIPPED BY CSV: 8 fortress slice(s) these qualify for FIGHT but carry Skip; in active_fortresses.csv (earnings, event, bullish momentum). Not analyzed, no recommendation, excluded from every income total and from the cc_manager seam. Existing short calls on them are still tripwired below. Remove the tag to bring them back.

Fortress	Acct	Ct	Price	BE SS	Why excluded
BMNR-LC23-1299	Main:1299	75	$24.78	$53.26	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 53.5% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC23-1782	Joint:1782	150	$24.78	$36.42	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 32.0% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max
BMNR-LC25	Main:1299	50	$24.78	$65.83	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 62.4% below BE SS · also tagged: Half Max [HP_MISSING]
CLSK	RetireInc:7291	25	$11.71	$20.74	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 43.6% below BE SS
ENPH	RetireInc:7291	10	$32.79	$56.15	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 41.6% below BE SS
IBIT	Joint:1782	50	$46.99	$70.58	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 33.4% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC13	Main:1299	400	$10.46	$16.75	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 37.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MARA-LC40	RetireInc:7291	500	$10.46	$41.04	excluded by CSV (Skip) · 74.5% below BE SS [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

CAPPED: 32 fortress slice(s) with CCs already sold, excluded from FIGHT scope

Fortress	Acct	Ct	BE SS	Active short calls
AAPL	RetireInc:7291	5	$334.64	5x $340C 12 Oct 2026 (5d)
AMD	Main:1299	2	$649.20	2x $685C 12 Oct 2026 (5d)
AMZN	Joint:1782	5	$267.92	5x $275C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
APP	RetireInc:7291	1	$588.00	1x $300C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
COIN-LC165	Main:1299	8	$210.90	8x $270C 18 Dec 2026 (72d)
COIN-LC500	Main:1299	25	$563.00	25x $210C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)
COPX	Joint:1782	20	$93.40	20x $89C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
CRCL	Neville:0865	5	$87.00	5x $91C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
CRWV	Neville:0865	5	$125.45	5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)
DELL	Main:1299	3	$562.50	3x $650C 30 Oct 2026 (23d)
GLD	Main:1299	10	$456.00	10x $413C 18 Dec 2026 (72d)
GOOG-LC300	Neville:0865	15	$373.00	15x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
GOOG-LC310	Joint:1782	5	$392.50	5x $355C 16 Oct 2026 (9d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
GOOG-LC340	Neville:0865	5	$398.00	5x $360C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
HIMS	Main:1299	15	$17.47	15x $32C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
HOOD	Joint:1782	10	$114.95	10x $120C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
IGV	Main:1299	12	$96.50	12x $115C 23 Oct 2026 (16d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
INTC	Neville:0865	5	$114.00	5x $123C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
IREN-LC25-1299	Main:1299	20	$44.00	20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)
IREN-LC25-1782	Joint:1782	20	$44.00	20x $60C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)
IREN-LC45	Neville:0865	20	$56.50	20x $45C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
IREN-LC50	RetireInc:7291	20	$63.43	20x $45C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
MSTR-LC125	RetireInc:7291	4	$161.00	4x $170C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)
MSTR-LC180	Joint:1782	10	$233.00	10x $200C 15 Jan 2027 (100d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]
MU-LC880	Main:1299	5	$1,028.60	5x $1125C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
MU-LC970	Neville:0865	2	$1,220.00	2x $1150C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
NVDA	Main:1299	10	$264.80	10x $250C 23 Oct 2026 (16d)
QCOM	RetireInc:7291	5	$224.00	5x $220C 20 Nov 2026 (44d)
RKLB	RetireInc:7291	6	$141.55	6x $90C 16 Oct 2026 (9d)
SNDK	Neville:0865	1	$1,620.00	1x $1760C 9 Oct 2026 (2d)
SPCX	Neville:0865	5	$186.00	5x $195C 30 Oct 2026 (23d)
SPY	Neville:0865	12	$764.00	12x $800C 30 Oct 2026 (23d) [LEAPS_ONLY, NO_HEDGE]

Manage these with the roll table (fortress_fight --tickers T) or roll_calls.

📏 CALIBRATION: 2997 of 3106 predictions resolved since 2026-07-02, is the model honest?

Predicted survival	N	Avg predicted	Realized OTM rate	Gap
0-60%	208	56%	61%	+5pp
60-70%	392	64%	62%	-2pp
70-80%	527	76%	82%	+6pp
80-90%	711	84%	85%	+0pp
90-100%	1159	94%	96%	+1pp

Touch odds: predicted 37% avg vs realized 34% touch rate over 2997 resolved (daily highs, exact intraday touch).

Regime spread: per expiry week, realized/predicted touch ranged 0.08x (W40) to 1.59x (W34) over 13 graded weeks; last week 0.08x. Every hist pill on this page carries this range in its tooltip.

🚪 Roll actuals vs playbook: 192 real buyback(s) recorded · 107 roll(s), net +$0.67/sh avg.

💸 What a touch actually costs, over 107 real rolls: buyback $5.92/sh, replacement credit financed 111% of it, leaving a net CREDIT of $0.67/sh (73 of 107 rolled for a credit). Verdict: even-roll (campaign MC) is closer: the replacement credit financed most of the buyback. E[net] charges the NET cost plus one parked cycle, not the gross buyback.

Green gap: within 7pp. A persistent negative gap means survival is overstated (model too confident); positive means too conservative. N is small early; judge after ~30 resolved.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 --all | 2026-10-07 21:44

Gross FIGHT income	$83/mo
vs 50% target ($2,660/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($5,320/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$83/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$1,674
… as % of IC ($5,525)	30.3%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	3.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.3 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-30,725

Gross FIGHT income	$1,000/mo
vs 50% target ($2,660/mo)	-62%
vs normal income ($5,320/mo)	19% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,000/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$26,399
… as % of IC ($5,525)	477.8%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	47.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	5.0 mo
Surgical close (25 ct)	$-30,862

Gross FIGHT income	$1,890/mo
vs 50% target ($2,660/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($5,320/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,911/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$18,325
… as % of IC ($5,525)	331.7%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	33.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.4 mo
Surgical close (14 ct)	$-17,276

Gross FIGHT income	$2,700/mo
vs 50% target ($2,660/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($5,320/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,709/mo

Gross FIGHT income	$5,850/mo
vs 50% target ($2,660/mo)	+120%
vs normal income ($5,320/mo)	110% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,878/mo

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,290
… as % of IC ($5,525)	258.6%
… as % of ML ($55,525)	25.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.7 mo
Surgical close (10 ct)	$-12,585