FORTRESS FIGHT: QCOM @ $186.21

BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $233.02 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-06 22:22 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

QCOM @ $186.21 UNDERWATER $37.79 (16.9% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $233.02 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $190 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $88.967/sh)

SP: $210 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $55.902/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.897/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$77,000	(ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,986/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$203/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-21,912	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,993/mo

HEDGE COVER
$203/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$11,986/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $17,000

ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $77,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $233 (probe: $232.5C 11d) brings only $886/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$846

Hole (after banked)

$21,066

was $21,912 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$234.90 → $233.02

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 24 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $257.06 (+38%) · daily UBB $230.51 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $200 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,993/mo); it brings $6,068/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $185/11d for $13,636/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+23pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $240/11d (97% survival, $240/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $14,287 (84% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $224, recoverable in 1.2 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-22,000 and cuts bleed by $203/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $200 (primary) — 73% survival, breach 27%, $6,068/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $208 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 82% (breach 27% → 18%) for $2,073/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $208 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect QCOM to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on QCOM are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$200, 7.4% OTM, 73% surv

Sell 5 × $200 7.4% OTM over spot $186.21 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.62 mid)

= $2,225 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,068/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $200)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $204.62)

79%

EV / mo

+$1,714

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8–3.5] median · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,768

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,529

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$221 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.61/sh now → $7.51 mid-life (likely $8.24–$12.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,272 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $204 (overshoots $4.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$200	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.58/sh	+$1,288 cycle +$3,513 [+$806…+$1,408] · 100% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$204	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.05/sh	+$524 cycle +$2,749 [-$55…+$546] · 70% credit	71% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$204	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.05/sh	+$524 cycle +$2,749 [-$55…+$546] · 70% credit	71% surv 58%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$221	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$4.23/sh	-$2,114 cycle +$111 [-$3,385…-$2,375]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $2,225 debit $2,114 (95% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,098/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,068/mo
vs 50% target ($5,993/mo)	+1%
vs normal income ($11,986/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,865/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $200 is $33 below CC-SS $233: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,287
… as % of IC ($17,000)	84.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	18.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,000

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $204.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $198.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $198-204.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $204.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$200.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,225	$-13,482	+$8,430	+$1,710
+2.5%	$205.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-13,732	+$8,180	-$790
+5%	$210.00 (1.0σ)	$-2,775	$-13,982	+$7,930	-$3,290
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-9,775	$-14,682	+$7,230	-$10,290

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $233.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,912

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,066

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$14,287

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,133 (+$6,779 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,790, the opportunity cost of earning $6,068/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$208, 11.4% OTM, 82% surv

Sell 5 × $208 11.4% OTM over spot $186.21 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.04 mid)

= $1,465 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,995/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $208)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $210.54)

84%

EV / mo

+$1,477

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8–3.1] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,059

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,429

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$221 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $11.01/sh now → $7.79 mid-life (likely $7.42–$11.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 854 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $212 (overshoots $4.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$208	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.43/sh	+$1,215 cycle +$2,680 [+$822…+$1,585] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$211	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.90/sh	+$449 cycle +$1,914 [-$34…+$684] · 72% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$211	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.90/sh	+$449 cycle +$1,914 [-$34…+$684] · 72% credit	70% surv 58%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$221	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.64/sh	-$1,319 cycle +$146 [-$2,194…-$1,198] · 2% credit	78% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,465 debit $1,319 (90% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$146 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,437/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,995/mo
vs 50% target ($5,993/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($11,986/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,793/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $208 is $26 below CC-SS $233: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,297
… as % of IC ($17,000)	66.5%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	14.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,968

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.93 collected) or spot ≥ $210.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $208)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $205.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $205-210.54	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $210.54	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$207.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,465	$-10,867	+$11,045	+$950
+2.5%	$212.69 (1.1σ)	$-1,129	$-11,126	+$10,786	-$1,644
+5%	$217.88 (1.4σ)	$-3,722	$-11,386	+$10,527	-$4,238
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-6,785	$-11,692	+$10,220	-$7,300

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $233.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,912

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,066

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $208): -$11,297

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,143 (+$9,769 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,800, the opportunity cost of earning $3,995/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$185, 0.6% ITM, 50% surv

Sell 5 × $185 0.6% ITM over spot $186.21 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $10.25 mid)

= $5,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $13,636/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $185)

50%

Breach risk

50%

POP (stays ≤ $195.25)

67%

EV / mo

+$1,955

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$1,528

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$218 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $9.82/sh now → $6.94 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$185	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.82/sh	+$1,408 cycle +$6,408	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$190	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.80/sh	+$400 cycle +$5,400	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$190	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.80/sh	+$400 cycle +$5,400	72% surv 61%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$218	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$5.42/sh	-$2,709 cycle +$2,291	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $5,000 debit $2,709 (54% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,291 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,907/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,636/mo
vs 50% target ($5,993/mo)	+128%
vs normal income ($11,986/mo)	114% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,434/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $185 is $48 below CC-SS $233: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$19,012
… as % of IC ($17,000)	111.8%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	24.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-22,038

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.50/sh (~25% of the $10.00 collected) or spot ≥ $195.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $183.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $183-195.25	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $195.25	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$185.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,000	$-16,912	+$5,000	+$4,485
+2.5%	$189.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,688	$-17,688	+$4,224	+$2,173
+5%	$194.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$375	$-17,920	+$3,993	-$140
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-14,500	$-19,407	+$2,505	-$15,015

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $233.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,912

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,066

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$19,012

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,858 (+$2,054 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,515, the opportunity cost of earning $13,636/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 2×$240, 28.9% OTM, 97% surv

Sell 2 × $240 28.9% OTM over spot $186.21 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.48 mid)

= $88 credit for the 11d cycle → $240/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $240)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $240.48)

97%

EV / mo

+$145

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7–3.2] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,698

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,714

Free roll-up

+$4/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$244 @ 70% POP

58% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.74/sh now → $9.01 mid-life (likely $5.93–$10.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.57/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 71 simulated challenges: the $240 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $245 (overshoots $4.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$240	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.59/sh	+$319 cycle +$407 [+$354…+$774] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$244	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$11 cycle +$99 [+$15…+$398] · 76% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$244	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.05/sh	+$11 cycle +$99 [+$15…+$398] · 76% credit	70% surv 58%

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$240/mo
vs 50% target ($5,993/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($11,986/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$880/mo

Downside budget

✓ $240 is at/above CC-SS $233: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($17,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,773

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $240.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $240)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.51 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $237.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $238-240.48	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $240.48	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$240.00 (2.3σ)	$88	$-1,810	+$20,102	+$2,882
+2.5%	$246.00 (2.6σ)	$-1,112	$-2,110	+$19,802	+$2,882
+5%	$252.00 (2.8σ)	$-2,312	$-2,410	+$19,502	+$2,882

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $233.02, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,912

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,066

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $240): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $225): -$2,098

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,944 (+$18,968 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,343 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,399, the opportunity cost of earning $240/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 11 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$21,066 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,343

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$200	11d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/5	$6,068	$5,865	73%	79%	+$1,714	-$14,287	84.0%	$-15,133 (vs do-nothing $-10,790)
$198	18d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/5	$6,000	$5,797	67%	75%	+$1,218	-$14,162	83.3%	$-15,008 (vs do-nothing $-10,665)
$195	11d	17 Jul 2026	$5.80	4/5	$6,327	$6,405	67%	75%	+$1,390	-$12,889	75.8%	$-14,435 (vs do-nothing $-10,092)
$195	18d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	5/5	$6,708	$6,506	64%	74%	+$1,254	-$14,987	88.2%	$-15,833 (vs do-nothing $-11,490)
$192	18d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,078	61%	72%	+$1,040	-$12,609	74.2%	$-14,155 (vs do-nothing $-9,812)
$190	11d	17 Jul 2026	$7.75	3/5	$6,341	$6,700	59%	71%	+$1,190	-$10,582	62.2%	$-12,827 (vs do-nothing $-8,484)
$190	18d	24 Jul 2026	$10.25	4/5	$6,833	$6,912	58%	71%	+$1,213	-$13,109	77.1%	$-14,655 (vs do-nothing $-10,312)
$188	18d	24 Jul 2026	$11.15	4/5	$7,433	$7,512	55%	69%	+$1,088	-$13,749	80.9%	$-15,295 (vs do-nothing $-10,952)
$185	18d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	3/5	$6,150	$6,509	52%	68%	+$797	-$10,717	63.0%	$-12,962 (vs do-nothing $-8,619)
$185	11d	17 Jul 2026	$10.00	3/5	$8,182	$8,541	50%	67%	+$1,173	-$11,407	67.1%	$-13,652 (vs do-nothing $-9,309)
$182	18d	24 Jul 2026	$13.60	3/5	$6,800	$7,159	48%	66%	+$802	-$11,077	65.2%	$-13,322 (vs do-nothing $-8,979)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 22:22