FORTRESS FIGHT: QCOM @ $177.19

BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $216.38 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-06 22:44 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

QCOM @ $177.19 UNDERWATER $46.81 (20.9% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $216.38 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $190 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $88.967/sh)

SP: $210 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $55.902/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.897/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$77,000	(ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$8,261/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$166/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-21,305	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,130/mo

HEDGE COVER
$166/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,261/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $17,000

ML VELOCITY
9.3 mo to earn back $77,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $216.38 (probe: $217.5C 14d) brings only $750/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$846

Hole (after banked)

$20,459

was $21,305 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$218.00 → $216.38

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 11 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $257.06 (+45%) · daily UBB $231.23 · 1-wk expected move ±$16 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $190 / 7d. This is the safest strike (survival 79%, breach 21%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($4,130/mo); it brings $4,414/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $182.50/7d for $8,464/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $222.50/7d (99% survival, $171/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $12,161 (72% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $224, recoverable in 1.5 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-21,388 and cuts bleed by $166/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $190 (primary) — 79% survival, breach 21%, $4,414/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $195 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 21% → 14%) for $1,500/mo less (34% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $195 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect QCOM to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on QCOM are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$190, 7.2% OTM, 79% surv

Sell 5 × $190 7.2% OTM over spot $177.19 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.23 mid)

= $1,030 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,414/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $190)

79%

Breach risk

21%

POP (stays ≤ $192.22)

83%

EV / mo

+$1,421

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7–3.3] median · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~6.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,233

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,454

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$223 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.97 mid-life (likely $5.26–$7.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 948 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $194 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$190	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.89/sh	+$1,444 cycle +$2,474 [+$1,162…+$1,667] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$193	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.55/sh	+$774 cycle +$1,804 [+$384…+$862] · 95% credit	70% surv 58%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$213	31 Jul 2026	24d left	+$1.18/sh	+$590 cycle +$1,620 [-$225…+$590] · 63% credit	81% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$215	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.39/sh	+$194 cycle +$1,224 [-$795…+$186] · 32% credit	79% surv 76%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$223	31 Jul 2026	24d left	-$1.35/sh	-$677 cycle +$353 [-$1,748…-$759] · 6% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $1,030 debit $677 (66% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$353 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,259/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,414/mo
vs 50% target ($4,130/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($8,261/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,249/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $190 is $26 below CC-SS $216.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$12,161
… as % of IC ($17,000)	71.5%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	15.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,388

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.06 collected) or spot ≥ $192.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $188.10	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $188-192.22	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $192.22	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$190.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,030	$-13,588	+$7,717	+$750
+2.5%	$194.75 (1.1σ)	$-1,345	$-13,484	+$7,821	-$1,625
+5%	$199.50 (1.4σ)	$-3,720	$-13,379	+$7,926	-$4,000
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (2.9σ)	$-15,970	$-12,840	+$8,465	-$16,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $190): -$12,161

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,008 (+$8,297 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-566 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,441, the opportunity cost of earning $4,414/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$195, 10.1% OTM, 86% surv

Sell 5 × $195 10.1% OTM over spot $177.19 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.45 mid)

= $680 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,914/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $195)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $196.44)

88%

EV / mo

+$1,277

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7–2.7] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,893

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

20%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,869

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$225 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $7.21/sh now → $5.10 mid-life (likely $4.76–$8.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.36/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 595 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $199 (overshoots $3.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$195	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.82/sh	+$1,409 cycle +$2,089 [+$1,182…+$1,737] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$198	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.48/sh	+$738 cycle +$1,418 [+$380…+$1,032] · 95% credit	70% surv 58%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$218	31 Jul 2026	24d left	+$1.16/sh	+$579 cycle +$1,259 [-$228…+$809] · 66% credit	80% surv 76%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$220	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.35/sh	+$173 cycle +$853 [-$803…+$414] · 41% credit	79% surv 76%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$225	31 Jul 2026	24d left	-$0.65/sh	-$323 cycle +$357 [-$1,301…-$140] · 20% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $680 debit $323 (48% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$357 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,782/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,914/mo
vs 50% target ($4,130/mo)	-29%
vs normal income ($8,261/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,749/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $195 is $21 below CC-SS $216.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,011
… as % of IC ($17,000)	58.9%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	13.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,348

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.36 collected) or spot ≥ $196.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $193.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $193-196.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $196.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$195.00 (1.1σ)	$680	$-11,328	+$9,977	+$400
+2.5%	$199.87 (1.4σ)	$-1,757	$-11,221	+$10,084	-$2,037
+5%	$204.75 (1.7σ)	$-4,195	$-11,114	+$10,191	-$4,475
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (2.9σ)	$-13,820	$-10,690	+$10,615	-$14,100

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $195): -$10,011

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,858 (+$10,447 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-566 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,291, the opportunity cost of earning $2,914/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$182.50, 3.0% OTM, 65% surv

Sell 5 × $182.50 3.0% OTM over spot $177.19 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.18 mid)

= $1,975 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,464/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $182.50)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $186.68)

73%

EV / mo

+$1,573

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7–3.6] median — 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~12.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,300

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

58%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$411

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$233 @ 92% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $6.75/sh now → $4.77 mid-life (likely $6.05–$8.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,752 simulated challenges: the $182 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $186 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$182	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.98/sh	+$1,489 cycle +$3,464 [+$1,109…+$1,405] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$185	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.64/sh	+$822 cycle +$2,797 [+$314…+$662] · 94% credit	70% surv 58%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$200	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$2.52/sh	+$1,259 cycle +$3,234 [+$188…+$899] · 81% credit	76% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$208	7 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.44/sh	+$218 cycle +$2,193 [-$1,048…-$202] · 17% credit	80% surv 76%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$233	31 Jul 2026	24d left	-$2.72/sh	-$1,359 cycle +$616 [-$2,889…-$1,866]	92% surv 91%
budget: banked $1,975 debit $1,359 (69% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$616 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,283/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$8,464/mo
vs 50% target ($4,130/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($8,261/mo)	102% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,299/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $182.50 is $34 below CC-SS $216.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$14,966
… as % of IC ($17,000)	88.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	19.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,418

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.99/sh (~25% of the $3.95 collected) or spot ≥ $186.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $180.68	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $181-186.68	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $186.68	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$182.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,975	$-16,558	+$4,747	+$1,695
+2.5%	$187.06 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-306	$-16,458	+$4,847	-$586
+5%	$191.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-2,588	$-16,357	+$4,948	-$2,868
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (2.9σ)	$-18,775	$-15,645	+$5,660	-$19,055

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $182.50): -$14,966

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,813 (+$5,492 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-566 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,246, the opportunity cost of earning $8,464/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 4×$222.50, 25.6% OTM, 99% surv

Sell 4 × $222.50 25.6% OTM over spot $177.19 10 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.38 mid)

= $40 credit for the 7d cycle → $171/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $222.50)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $222.88)

99%

EV / mo

+$125

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8–3.9] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $285

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,287

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$245 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.22/sh now → $5.82 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$222	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.30/sh	+$920 cycle +$960	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$225	17 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.95/sh	+$378 cycle +$418	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$245	31 Jul 2026	24d left	+$0.87/sh	+$347 cycle +$387	80% surv 75%
reaches SS ✓

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$171/mo
vs 50% target ($4,130/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($8,261/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$126/mo

Downside budget

✓ $222.50 is at/above CC-SS $216.38: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($17,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-17,156

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.10 collected) or spot ≥ $222.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $222)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $231.23 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $220.28	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $220-222.88	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $222.88	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$222.50 (2.8σ)	$40	$2,443	+$23,748	-$184
+2.5%	$228.06 (3.1σ)	$-2,185	$2,815	+$24,120	-$1,184
+5%	$233.62 (3.5σ)	$-4,410	$2,938	+$24,243	-$1,184

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $216.38, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $222.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$56

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-790 (+$20,515 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-566 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-224, the opportunity cost of earning $171/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.044 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,459 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-566

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$190	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.06	5/5	$4,414	$4,249	79%	83%	+$1,421	-$12,161	71.5%	$-13,008 (vs do-nothing $-12,441)
$187.50	7d	10 Jul 2026	$2.68	4/5	$4,594	$4,549	75%	80%	+$1,396	-$10,481	61.7%	$-11,271 (vs do-nothing $-10,705)
$190	14d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	5/5	$4,446	$4,281	73%	78%	+$1,069	-$11,116	65.4%	$-11,963 (vs do-nothing $-11,396)
$185	7d	10 Jul 2026	$3.20	4/5	$5,486	$5,440	70%	77%	+$1,260	-$11,273	66.3%	$-12,063 (vs do-nothing $-11,497)
$190	21d	24 Jul 2026	$5.85	5/5	$4,179	$4,013	70%	77%	+$745	-$10,266	60.4%	$-11,113 (vs do-nothing $-10,546)
$192.50	28d	31 Jul 2026	$8.20	5/5	$4,393	$4,227	69%	76%	+$828	-$7,841	46.1%	$-8,688 (vs do-nothing $-8,121)
$190	28d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	5/5	$4,848	$4,683	67%	75%	+$891	-$8,666	51.0%	$-9,513 (vs do-nothing $-8,946)
$187.50	21d	24 Jul 2026	$6.70	5/5	$4,786	$4,620	67%	75%	+$846	-$11,091	65.2%	$-11,938 (vs do-nothing $-11,371)
$185	14d	17 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$4,929	$4,883	66%	74%	+$1,038	-$10,253	60.3%	$-11,043 (vs do-nothing $-10,477)
$187.50	28d	31 Jul 2026	$8.70	5/5	$4,661	$4,495	65%	73%	+$275	-$10,091	59.4%	$-10,938 (vs do-nothing $-10,371)
$182.50	7d	10 Jul 2026	$3.95	3/5	$5,079	$5,153	65%	73%	+$944	-$8,980	52.8%	$-9,714 (vs do-nothing $-9,148)
$187.50	35d	7 Aug 2026	$9.85	5/5	$4,221	$4,056	64%	73%	+$224	-$9,516	56.0%	$-10,363 (vs do-nothing $-9,796)
$185	21d	24 Jul 2026	$7.25	4/5	$4,143	$4,097	64%	73%	+$534	-$9,653	56.8%	$-10,443 (vs do-nothing $-9,877)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$185	28d	31 Jul 2026	$10.70	4/5	$4,586	$4,540	62%	73%	+$703	-$8,273	48.7%	$-9,063 (vs do-nothing $-8,497)
$185	35d	7 Aug 2026	$10.75	5/5	$4,607	$4,442	62%	72%	+$228	-$10,316	60.7%	$-11,163 (vs do-nothing $-10,596)
$182.50	21d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	4/5	$4,657	$4,612	60%	71%	+$535	-$10,293	60.5%	$-11,083 (vs do-nothing $-10,517)
$182.50	28d	31 Jul 2026	$11.75	4/5	$5,036	$4,990	60%	71%	+$746	-$8,853	52.1%	$-9,643 (vs do-nothing $-9,077)
$182.50	35d	7 Aug 2026	$11.65	5/5	$4,993	$4,827	60%	71%	+$203	-$11,116	65.4%	$-11,963 (vs do-nothing $-11,396)
$180	7d	10 Jul 2026	$4.95	2/5	$4,243	$4,437	59%	70%	+$601	-$6,287	37.0%	$-6,965 (vs do-nothing $-6,399)
$180	14d	17 Jul 2026	$7.50	3/5	$4,821	$4,896	57%	70%	+$712	-$8,665	51.0%	$-9,399 (vs do-nothing $-8,833)
$180	35d	7 Aug 2026	$12.65	4/5	$4,337	$4,292	57%	70%	+$151	-$9,493	55.8%	$-10,283 (vs do-nothing $-9,717)
$180	28d	31 Jul 2026	$12.35	4/5	$5,293	$5,247	57%	70%	+$562	-$9,613	56.5%	$-10,403 (vs do-nothing $-9,837)
$180	21d	24 Jul 2026	$9.50	4/5	$5,429	$5,383	57%	70%	+$735	-$10,753	63.3%	$-11,543 (vs do-nothing $-10,977)
$177.50	35d	7 Aug 2026	$13.75	4/5	$4,714	$4,669	55%	69%	+$149	-$10,053	59.1%	$-10,843 (vs do-nothing $-10,277)
$177.50	28d	31 Jul 2026	$13.65	3/5	$4,388	$4,462	54%	69%	+$483	-$7,570	44.5%	$-8,304 (vs do-nothing $-7,738)
$177.50	21d	24 Jul 2026	$10.35	3/5	$4,436	$4,510	54%	68%	+$440	-$8,560	50.4%	$-9,294 (vs do-nothing $-8,728)
$177.50	7d	10 Jul 2026	$5.90	2/5	$5,057	$5,252	53%	67%	+$472	-$6,597	38.8%	$-7,275 (vs do-nothing $-6,709)
$175	35d	7 Aug 2026	$15.00	4/5	$5,143	$5,097	52%	68%	+$172	-$10,553	62.1%	$-11,343 (vs do-nothing $-10,777)
$175	28d	31 Jul 2026	$14.75	3/5	$4,741	$4,815	52%	68%	+$452	-$7,990	47.0%	$-8,724 (vs do-nothing $-8,158)
$175	21d	24 Jul 2026	$11.40	3/5	$4,886	$4,960	50%	66%	+$366	-$8,995	52.9%	$-9,729 (vs do-nothing $-9,163)
$175	14d	17 Jul 2026	$9.90	2/5	$4,243	$4,437	49%	66%	+$485	-$6,297	37.0%	$-6,975 (vs do-nothing $-6,409)
$175	7d	10 Jul 2026	$7.15	2/5	$6,129	$6,323	46%	64%	+$524	-$6,847	40.3%	$-7,525 (vs do-nothing $-6,959)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 22:44