FORTRESS FIGHT: QCOM @ $186.63

BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $225.87 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | 2026-07-06 22:55 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

QCOM @ $186.63 UNDERWATER $37.37 (16.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $225.87 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291

LC: $190 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $88.967/sh)

SP: $210 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $55.902/sh)

HP: $90 exp 2026-09-18 (entry $0.897/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$77,000	(ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,748/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$203/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-21,305	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,874/mo

HEDGE COVER
$203/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$11,748/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $17,000

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $77,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $225.87 (probe: $225C 11d) brings only $1,418/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER — realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$846

Hole (after banked)

$20,459

was $21,305 · 4% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS ratchet

$227.49 → $225.87

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 25 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $257.06 (+38%) · daily UBB $230.49 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-30: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $200 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 73%, breach 27%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($5,874/mo); it brings $6,068/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $185/11d for $13,977/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+23pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $232.50/11d (95% survival, $355/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,708 (63% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $224, recoverable in 0.9 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-21,393 and cuts bleed by $203/mo.

📊 Income ladder — one panel per rung, recommended first

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your 5 contracts. 🎯 is the primary (50% of normal), shown first; then 33%, then 100%, with the hedge-cover rung last. Each panel shows its metrics, the IF-CHALLENGED exit doors, and a collapsible with the full downside detail. Cap give-up is measured to CC-SS (where you are whole again). Short DTE by design; if a call gets challenged, the roll menu prices the longer-dated cap-raise exits.

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $200 (primary) — 73% survival, breach 27%, $6,068/mo.
⚖️ Worth a safer step: the $207.50 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 81% (breach 27% → 19%) for $2,100/mo less (35% income), and it still covers your hedge. The pick sits below the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line; on a drawdown you are nursing back, dodging the frequent breach usually beats the extra premium. Lean: the safer $207.50 rung — unless you need the income to cover the hedge bleed, or you expect QCOM to stay flat-to-down near term.

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on QCOM are the tiebreakers.

🎯 50% normal · sell 5×$200, 7.2% OTM, 73% surv

Sell 5 × $200 7.2% OTM over spot $186.63 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.62 mid)

= $2,225 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,068/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $200)

73%

Breach risk

27%

POP (stays ≤ $204.62)

79%

EV / mo

+$1,604

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6–3.0] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,857

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

43%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,495

Free roll-up

+$6/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$221 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.52/sh now → $7.44 mid-life (likely $8.30–$11.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,302 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $204 (overshoots $4.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$200	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.61/sh	+$1,305 cycle +$3,530 [+$828…+$1,384] · 100% credit	68% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$203	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.17/sh	+$587 cycle +$2,812 [+$17…+$589] · 76% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$206	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$70 cycle +$2,295 [-$598…-$3] · 25% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$206	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.14/sh	+$70 cycle +$2,295 [-$598…-$3] · 25% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$221	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$4.12/sh	-$2,060 cycle +$165 [-$3,328…-$2,334]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $2,225 debit $2,060 (93% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$165 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,151/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,068/mo
vs 50% target ($5,874/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($11,748/mo)	52% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,865/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $200 is $26 below CC-SS $225.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,708
… as % of IC ($17,000)	63.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	13.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,393

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $204.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $198.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $198-204.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $204.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$200.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,225	$-12,110	+$9,195	+$1,705
+2.5%	$205.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-275	$-12,003	+$9,302	-$795
+5%	$210.00 (1.0σ)	$-2,775	$-11,895	+$9,410	-$3,295
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-9,775	$-11,594	+$9,711	-$10,295

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$10,708

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,554 (+$9,751 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,795, the opportunity cost of earning $6,068/mo FIGHT income now)

33% normal — RECOMMENDED · sell 5×$207.50, 11.2% OTM, 81% surv

Sell 5 × $207.50 11.2% OTM over spot $186.63 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.00 mid)

= $1,455 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,968/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $207.50)

81%

Breach risk

19%

POP (stays ≤ $210.50)

84%

EV / mo

+$1,400

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6–2.8] median — 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,485

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,404

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$221 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $10.91/sh now → $7.72 mid-life (likely $7.41–$11.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.91/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 885 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $212 (overshoots $4.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$208	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.47/sh	+$1,233 cycle +$2,688 [+$835…+$1,597] · 100% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$211	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.03/sh	+$513 cycle +$1,968 [+$30…+$764] · 78% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$211	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.03/sh	+$513 cycle +$1,968 [+$30…+$764] · 78% credit	70% surv 58%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$221	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.52/sh	-$1,261 cycle +$194 [-$2,129…-$1,161] · 3% credit	78% surv 72%
budget: banked $1,455 debit $1,261 (87% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$194 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,497/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,968/mo
vs 50% target ($5,874/mo)	-32%
vs normal income ($11,748/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,765/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $207.50 is $18 below CC-SS $225.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,728
… as % of IC ($17,000)	45.5%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	10.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,353

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.91 collected) or spot ≥ $210.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $208)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $205.43	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $205-210.50	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $210.50	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$207.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,455	$-8,969	+$12,336	+$935
+2.5%	$212.69 (1.1σ)	$-1,139	$-8,857	+$12,448	-$1,659
+5%	$217.88 (1.3σ)	$-3,732	$-8,746	+$12,559	-$4,252
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-6,795	$-8,614	+$12,691	-$7,315

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $207.50): -$7,728

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,574 (+$12,731 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,815, the opportunity cost of earning $3,968/mo FIGHT income now)

100% normal · sell 5×$185, 0.9% ITM, 50% surv

Sell 5 × $185 0.9% ITM over spot $186.63 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $10.45 mid)

= $5,125 credit for the 11d cycle → $13,977/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $185)

50%

Breach risk

50%

POP (stays ≤ $195.45)

67%

EV / mo

+$1,985

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

100%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

+$1,684

Free roll-up

+$5/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$218 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $9.73/sh now → $6.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$185	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$2.85/sh	+$1,424 cycle +$6,549	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$190	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.75/sh	+$376 cycle +$5,501	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$190	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.75/sh	+$376 cycle +$5,501	72% surv 61%
SS $224 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$218	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$5.34/sh	-$2,669 cycle +$2,456	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $5,125 debit $2,669 (52% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2,456 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,930/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$13,977/mo
vs 50% target ($5,874/mo)	+138%
vs normal income ($11,748/mo)	119% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$13,775/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $185 is $41 below CC-SS $225.87: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$15,308
… as % of IC ($17,000)	90.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	19.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-21,405

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.56/sh (~25% of the $10.25 collected) or spot ≥ $195.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $183.15	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $183-195.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $195.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$185.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$5,125	$-16,180	+$5,125	+$4,605
+2.5%	$189.62 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,813	$-16,933	+$4,372	+$2,293
+5%	$194.25 (≤1σ, normal week)	$500	$-16,834	+$4,471	-$20
SS (= V-bounce)	$224.00 (1.6σ)	$-14,375	$-16,194	+$5,111	-$14,895

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$15,308

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,154 (+$5,151 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,395, the opportunity cost of earning $13,977/mo FIGHT income now)

cover hedge · sell 2×$232.50, 24.6% OTM, 95% surv

Sell 2 × $232.50 24.6% OTM over spot $186.63 17 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.70 mid)

= $130 credit for the 11d cycle → $355/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $232.50)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $233.20)

95%

EV / mo

+$197

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7–3.3] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,292

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,600

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026)

$238 @ 72% POP

61% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.23/sh now → $8.65 mid-life (likely $6.69–$11.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 151 simulated challenges: the $232 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $238 (overshoots $5.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$232	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.86/sh	+$371 cycle +$501 [+$362…+$729] · 99% credit	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$236	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$82 cycle +$212 [+$8…+$414] · 76% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$236	24 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.41/sh	+$82 cycle +$212 [+$8…+$414] · 76% credit	70% surv 57%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$238	24 Jul 2026	12d left	-$0.64/sh	-$128 cycle +$2 [-$247…+$167] · 45% credit	72% surv 61%
budget: banked $130 debit $128 (99% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 2 ct earn ≈ $4,004/mo while parked; 3 ct free to re-sell

More detail — income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$355/mo
vs 50% target ($5,874/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($11,748/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,003/mo

Downside budget

✓ $232.50 is at/above CC-SS $225.87: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($17,000)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($77,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-8,532

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $233.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $232)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $230.49 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $230.18	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $230-233.20	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $233.20	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.04 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$232.50 (2.0σ)	$130	$806	+$22,111	+$1,422
+2.5%	$238.31 (2.2σ)	$-1,032	$931	+$22,236	+$1,422
+5%	$244.12 (2.5σ)	$-2,195	$1,056	+$22,361	+$1,422

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.87, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,305

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,459

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $232.50): -$0

+ Conservative CC premium (3 × $225): +$52

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-794 (+$20,511 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-759 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-35, the opportunity cost of earning $355/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.043 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,459 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-759

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$200	11d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	5/5	$6,068	$5,865	73%	79%	+$1,604	-$10,708	63.0%	$-11,554 (vs do-nothing $-10,795)
$197.50	18d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	5/5	$6,167	$5,964	67%	75%	+$1,300	-$10,483	61.7%	$-11,329 (vs do-nothing $-10,570)
$195	11d	17 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$6,545	$6,626	66%	74%	+$1,475	-$9,946	58.5%	$-10,775 (vs do-nothing $-10,016)
$195	18d	24 Jul 2026	$8.25	5/5	$6,875	$6,672	64%	73%	+$1,325	-$11,308	66.5%	$-12,154 (vs do-nothing $-11,395)
$192.50	18d	24 Jul 2026	$9.25	4/5	$6,167	$6,248	61%	72%	+$1,119	-$9,646	56.7%	$-10,475 (vs do-nothing $-9,716)
$190	11d	17 Jul 2026	$7.90	3/5	$6,464	$6,828	58%	70%	+$1,170	-$8,390	49.4%	$-9,201 (vs do-nothing $-8,442)
$190	18d	24 Jul 2026	$10.30	4/5	$6,867	$6,948	58%	70%	+$1,148	-$10,226	60.2%	$-11,055 (vs do-nothing $-10,296)
$187.50	18d	24 Jul 2026	$11.25	4/5	$7,500	$7,581	54%	69%	+$1,044	-$10,846	63.8%	$-11,675 (vs do-nothing $-10,916)
$185	18d	24 Jul 2026	$12.60	3/5	$6,300	$6,665	51%	67%	+$853	-$8,480	49.9%	$-9,291 (vs do-nothing $-8,532)
$185	11d	17 Jul 2026	$10.25	3/5	$8,386	$8,751	50%	67%	+$1,191	-$9,185	54.0%	$-9,996 (vs do-nothing $-9,237)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

BE SS (Breakeven Safe Strike)	The fortress breakeven: Max(LC + Net Debit, (LC + SP + Net Debit) / 2), from the CSV Safe Strike column. Every "SS" on this dashboard (below SS, cap give-up @ SS, V-bounce to SS) is THIS strike. It is NOT a covered-call strike: the FIGHT CC is sold well below it, and normal income is priced from an at-the-money CC, not a CC at SS.
Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income	At-the-money covered-call extrinsic income from the chain, DTE-prorated (NOT a CC struck at BE SS).
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
CC-SS (Covered-Call Safe Strike)	The strike the stock must recover to for the fortress to be whole again (recovery offsets the current unrealized loss). A CC sold below CC-SS locks a loss if assigned. The deep-drawdown gate, cap give-up and V-bounce all reference CC-SS. Approximates cc_scanner's cc_ss_min_safe (used by cc_manager).
Cap give-up @ CC-SS	(CC-SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: the loss locked in if the stock recovers to whole (CC-SS) and the CC is assigned below it. Zero when the strike + premium reaches CC-SS.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v6.0 | 2026-07-06 22:55