5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $226.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,310/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $163/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,498 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $200 | 79% | $6,250 | $2,052 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 2 × $230 | 17 Jul | 6d | 22.0% | 99% | 3% | $34 | $170 | -$6,080 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 2 × $230 22.0% OTM over spot $188.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.21 mid) = $34 credit for the 6d cycle → $170/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $230.21) 99% EV / mo +$145 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,800 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,186 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $249 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.62/sh now → $6.10 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $226.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $230.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,498 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,934 − CC assignment net of premium (2 × $230): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $225): -$147 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-711 (+$19,787 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-809 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$98, the opportunity cost of earning $170/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $210 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.4% | 92% | 17% | $480 | $2,400 | -$3,850 | $7,805 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $210 11.4% OTM over spot $188.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.01 mid) = $480 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $211.01) 92% EV / mo +$1,549 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,289 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,304 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.87/sh now → $5.57 mid-life (likely $4.56–$8.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 324 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $214 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $17 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $211.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,498 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,934 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $210): -$7,805 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,369 (+$12,129 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-809 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.7% | 86% | 28% | $765 | $3,825 | -$2,425 | $10,020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 8.7% OTM over spot $188.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.60 mid) = $765 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $206.60) 88% EV / mo +$2,118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 71% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,004 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,953 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.69/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $5.26–$8.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 568 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $209 (overshoots $4.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $22 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $206.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,498 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,934 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$10,020 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,584 (+$9,914 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-809 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,775, the opportunity cost of earning $3,825/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 6.1% | 79% | 32% | $1,250 | $6,250 | — | $12,035 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 6.1% OTM over spot $188.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.58 mid) = $1,250 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $202.57) 83% EV / mo +$2,902 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~6.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,406 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,401 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.50/sh now → $5.30 mid-life (likely $5.54–$8.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 950 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $203 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $27 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.62/sh (~25% of the $2.50 collected) or spot ≥ $202.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,498 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,934 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$12,035 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,599 (+$7,899 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-809 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,790, the opportunity cost of earning $6,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.1% | 62% | 78% | $2,400 | $12,000 | +$5,750 | $14,635 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 2.1% OTM over spot $188.56 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.97 mid) = $2,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $12,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $197.47) 74% EV / mo +$3,659 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~13.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,543 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$152 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.10 mid-life (likely $6.64–$9.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,831 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $196 (overshoots $3.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $34 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.20/sh (~25% of the $4.80 collected) or spot ≥ $197.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,498 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,934 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$14,635 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,199 (+$5,299 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-809 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,390, the opportunity cost of earning $12,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.049 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,934 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-809
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 5/5 | $6,250 | $6,087 | 79% | 83% | +$2,902 | -$12,035 | 70.8% | $-12,599 (vs do-nothing $-11,790) |
| $197.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 4/5 | $6,100 | $6,186 | 74% | 80% | +$2,412 | -$10,408 | 61.2% | $-11,021 (vs do-nothing $-10,212) |
| $205 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.15 | 5/5 | $5,363 | $5,199 | 71% | 78% | +$1,476 | -$7,210 | 42.4% | $-7,774 (vs do-nothing $-6,965) |
| $200 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $5,942 | $5,779 | 71% | 78% | +$2,046 | -$10,710 | 63.0% | $-11,274 (vs do-nothing $-10,465) |
| $202.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.95 | 5/5 | $5,962 | $5,799 | 69% | 77% | +$1,566 | -$8,060 | 47.4% | $-8,624 (vs do-nothing $-7,815) |
| $195 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $6,185 | 68% | 77% | +$2,097 | -$8,301 | 48.8% | $-8,963 (vs do-nothing $-8,154) |
| $197.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 4/5 | $5,215 | $5,302 | 67% | 76% | +$1,455 | -$9,368 | 55.1% | $-9,981 (vs do-nothing $-9,172) |
| $200 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/5 | $5,370 | $5,456 | 66% | 75% | +$1,399 | -$7,048 | 41.5% | $-7,661 (vs do-nothing $-6,852) |
| $197.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.45 | 4/5 | $5,670 | $5,756 | 65% | 77% | +$2,222 | -$7,848 | 46.2% | $-8,461 (vs do-nothing $-7,652) |
| $195 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.55 | 4/5 | $6,046 | $6,132 | 63% | 74% | +$1,536 | -$10,008 | 58.9% | $-10,621 (vs do-nothing $-9,812) |
| $195 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.55 | 4/5 | $6,330 | $6,416 | 62% | 75% | +$2,356 | -$8,408 | 49.5% | $-9,021 (vs do-nothing $-8,212) |
| $192.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 3/5 | $7,200 | $7,535 | 62% | 74% | +$2,195 | -$8,781 | 51.7% | $-9,443 (vs do-nothing $-8,634) |
| $192.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.45 | 3/5 | $5,158 | $5,493 | 59% | 72% | +$1,125 | -$7,986 | 47.0% | $-8,648 (vs do-nothing $-7,839) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $192.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.55 | 3/5 | $5,198 | $5,533 | 58% | 73% | +$1,779 | -$6,756 | 39.7% | $-7,418 (vs do-nothing $-6,609) |
| $190 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 2/5 | $6,100 | $6,685 | 55% | 71% | +$1,735 | -$6,094 | 35.8% | $-6,805 (vs do-nothing $-5,996) |
| $190 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.00 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $6,185 | 55% | 72% | +$1,948 | -$7,071 | 41.6% | $-7,733 (vs do-nothing $-6,924) |
| $190 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 3/5 | $6,058 | $6,393 | 55% | 70% | +$1,284 | -$8,346 | 49.1% | $-9,008 (vs do-nothing $-8,199) |
| $187.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.00 | 3/5 | $6,300 | $6,635 | 51% | 71% | +$1,866 | -$7,521 | 44.2% | $-8,183 (vs do-nothing $-7,374) |
| $187.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 3/5 | $6,923 | $7,258 | 50% | 68% | +$1,312 | -$8,721 | 51.3% | $-9,383 (vs do-nothing $-8,574) |
| $187.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 2/5 | $7,200 | $7,785 | 49% | 68% | +$1,602 | -$6,374 | 37.5% | $-7,085 (vs do-nothing $-6,276) |
| $185 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.90 | 3/5 | $6,705 | $7,040 | 48% | 69% | +$1,692 | -$8,001 | 47.1% | $-8,663 (vs do-nothing $-7,854) |
| $185 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 2/5 | $5,238 | $5,823 | 46% | 66% | +$875 | -$6,044 | 35.6% | $-6,755 (vs do-nothing $-5,946) |
| $185 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.65 | 2/5 | $8,650 | $9,235 | 42% | 65% | +$1,615 | -$6,584 | 38.7% | $-7,295 (vs do-nothing $-6,486) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.