5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $226.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,750/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $143/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,360 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $200 | 78% | $5,825 | $1,926 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $230 | 17 Jul | 6d | 21.8% | 99% | 2% | $39 | $195 | -$5,630 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $230 21.8% OTM over spot $188.82 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.17 mid) = $39 credit for the 6d cycle → $195/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $230.16) 99% EV / mo +$159 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.6] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,140 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,658 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $249 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $226.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,777 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $230): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $225): -$114 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-696 (+$19,664 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-867 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$170, the opportunity cost of earning $195/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $210 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.2% | 92% | 17% | $440 | $2,200 | -$3,625 | $7,844 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $210 11.2% OTM over spot $188.82 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.92 mid) = $440 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $210.91) 92% EV / mo +$1,357 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,139 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,143 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.30/sh now → $5.17 mid-life (likely $4.14–$7.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 317 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $214 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $17 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $210.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,777 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $210): -$7,844 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,427 (+$11,933 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-867 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.6% | 86% | 28% | $720 | $3,600 | -$2,225 | $10,064 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 8.6% OTM over spot $188.82 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.48 mid) = $720 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $206.48) 88% EV / mo +$1,889 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,745 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,802 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.13/sh now → $5.04 mid-life (likely $4.84–$8.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 567 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $209 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $22 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.36/sh (~25% of the $1.44 collected) or spot ≥ $206.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,777 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$10,064 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,647 (+$9,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-867 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,780, the opportunity cost of earning $3,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.9% | 78% | 32% | $1,165 | $5,825 | — | $12,119 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 5.9% OTM over spot $188.82 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.40 mid) = $1,165 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,825/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $202.40) 82% EV / mo +$2,418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,606 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,295 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.96/sh now → $4.92 mid-life (likely $5.17–$8.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 951 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $203 (overshoots $3.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $27 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.33 collected) or spot ≥ $202.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,777 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$12,119 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,702 (+$7,658 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-867 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,835, the opportunity cost of earning $5,825/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.9% | 61% | 80% | $2,225 | $11,125 | +$5,300 | $14,809 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 1.9% OTM over spot $188.82 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.68 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 6d cycle → $11,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $197.18) 72% EV / mo +$2,667 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.1] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~14.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,250 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$143 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.70/sh now → $4.74 mid-life (likely $6.16–$8.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,862 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $196 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $34 below CC-SS $226.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,360 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,777 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$14,809 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,392 (+$4,968 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-867 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,525, the opportunity cost of earning $11,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.048 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,777 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-867
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.33 | 5/5 | $5,825 | $5,682 | 78% | 82% | +$2,418 | -$12,119 | 71.3% | $-12,702 (vs do-nothing $-11,835) |
| $197.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 4/5 | $5,880 | $5,967 | 73% | 79% | +$2,130 | -$10,451 | 61.5% | $-11,091 (vs do-nothing $-10,224) |
| $205 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.95 | 5/5 | $5,212 | $5,069 | 71% | 78% | +$1,382 | -$7,309 | 43.0% | $-7,892 (vs do-nothing $-7,025) |
| $200 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 5/5 | $5,596 | $5,453 | 71% | 78% | +$1,752 | -$10,859 | 63.9% | $-11,442 (vs do-nothing $-10,575) |
| $202.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 5/5 | $5,662 | $5,519 | 69% | 76% | +$1,324 | -$8,259 | 48.6% | $-8,842 (vs do-nothing $-7,975) |
| $195 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 3/5 | $5,550 | $5,868 | 68% | 76% | +$1,739 | -$8,360 | 49.2% | $-9,057 (vs do-nothing $-8,190) |
| $197.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 4/5 | $5,031 | $5,118 | 67% | 76% | +$1,312 | -$9,447 | 55.6% | $-10,087 (vs do-nothing $-9,220) |
| $200 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $5,160 | $5,247 | 66% | 75% | +$1,237 | -$7,187 | 42.3% | $-7,827 (vs do-nothing $-6,960) |
| $197.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 4/5 | $5,550 | $5,637 | 64% | 73% | +$1,126 | -$7,927 | 46.6% | $-8,567 (vs do-nothing $-7,700) |
| $195 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $5,815 | $5,903 | 63% | 73% | +$1,344 | -$10,107 | 59.5% | $-10,747 (vs do-nothing $-9,880) |
| $192.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $6,675 | $6,993 | 61% | 72% | +$1,600 | -$8,885 | 52.3% | $-9,582 (vs do-nothing $-8,715) |
| $195 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 4/5 | $6,210 | $6,297 | 61% | 72% | +$1,233 | -$8,487 | 49.9% | $-9,127 (vs do-nothing $-8,260) |
| $192.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $5,054 | $5,372 | 59% | 71% | +$1,047 | -$8,030 | 47.2% | $-8,727 (vs do-nothing $-7,860) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $192.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.40 | 3/5 | $5,130 | $5,448 | 58% | 71% | +$942 | -$6,800 | 40.0% | $-7,497 (vs do-nothing $-6,630) |
| $190 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 3/5 | $5,625 | $5,943 | 55% | 69% | +$940 | -$7,220 | 42.5% | $-7,917 (vs do-nothing $-7,050) |
| $190 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.70 | 2/5 | $5,700 | $6,249 | 55% | 69% | +$1,279 | -$6,174 | 36.3% | $-6,927 (vs do-nothing $-6,060) |
| $190 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $5,850 | $6,168 | 54% | 69% | +$1,095 | -$8,435 | 49.6% | $-9,132 (vs do-nothing $-8,265) |
| $187.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.65 | 3/5 | $6,143 | $6,461 | 52% | 68% | +$917 | -$7,625 | 44.9% | $-8,322 (vs do-nothing $-7,455) |
| $187.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 3/5 | $6,646 | $6,964 | 50% | 67% | +$1,046 | -$8,840 | 52.0% | $-9,537 (vs do-nothing $-8,670) |
| $187.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.90 | 2/5 | $6,900 | $7,449 | 48% | 66% | +$1,235 | -$6,434 | 37.8% | $-7,187 (vs do-nothing $-6,320) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.