5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $225.21 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,923/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $422/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,480 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $200 | 78% | $5,650 | $1,625 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $225 | 17 Jul | 6d | 19.1% | 98% | 4% | $100 | $500 | -$5,150 | $3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $225 19.1% OTM over spot $188.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.29 mid) = $100 credit for the 6d cycle → $500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $225) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $225.29) 98% EV / mo +$394 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $10 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,742 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $244 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.04/sh now → $5.68 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $225 is at/above CC-SS $225.21: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $225.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $225)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,480 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $225): -$3 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,145 (+$16,335 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-400, the opportunity cost of earning $500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $210 | 17 Jul | 6d | 11.2% | 91% | 17% | $430 | $2,150 | -$3,500 | $7,173 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $210 11.2% OTM over spot $188.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.95 mid) = $430 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $210.94) 92% EV / mo +$1,305 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,051 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,223 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.50/sh now → $5.31 mid-life (likely $4.28–$8.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.86/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 318 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $214 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $15 below CC-SS $225.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.86 collected) or spot ≥ $210.94 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,480 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $210): -$7,173 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,315 (+$9,165 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,570, the opportunity cost of earning $2,150/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 6d | 8.5% | 86% | 28% | $695 | $3,475 | -$2,175 | $9,408 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 8.5% OTM over spot $188.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.52 mid) = $695 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $206.52) 88% EV / mo +$1,762 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,542 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,895 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.02–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 568 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $209 (overshoots $4.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $20 below CC-SS $225.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $206.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,480 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$9,408 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,550 (+$6,930 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,805, the opportunity cost of earning $3,475/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.9% | 78% | 32% | $1,130 | $5,650 | — | $11,473 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 5.9% OTM over spot $188.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.38 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $202.38) 82% EV / mo +$2,268 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.8 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,615 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,396 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.14/sh now → $5.05 mid-life (likely $5.32–$8.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 956 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $203 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $25 below CC-SS $225.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $202.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,480 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$11,473 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,615 (+$4,865 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,870, the opportunity cost of earning $5,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.9% | 61% | 80% | $2,225 | $11,125 | +$5,475 | $14,128 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 1.9% OTM over spot $188.90 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.75 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 6d cycle → $11,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $197.25) 73% EV / mo +$2,643 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~16.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,508 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$207 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $234 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.88/sh now → $4.86 mid-life (likely $6.34–$9.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,869 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $196 (overshoots $3.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $33 below CC-SS $225.21: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.69 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $225.21, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,480 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$14,128 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,270 (+$2,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,525, the opportunity cost of earning $11,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$16,338 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,745
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $5,650 | $5,228 | 78% | 82% | +$2,268 | -$11,473 | 67.5% | $-14,615 (vs do-nothing $-11,870) |
| $197.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $6,000 | $5,809 | 73% | 79% | +$2,265 | -$9,882 | 58.1% | $-12,945 (vs do-nothing $-10,200) |
| $205 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 5/5 | $5,325 | $4,903 | 71% | 78% | +$1,453 | -$6,553 | 38.5% | $-9,695 (vs do-nothing $-6,950) |
| $200 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $5,481 | $5,059 | 71% | 78% | +$1,568 | -$10,228 | 60.2% | $-13,370 (vs do-nothing $-10,625) |
| $202.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 5/5 | $5,887 | $5,466 | 69% | 77% | +$1,506 | -$7,428 | 43.7% | $-10,570 (vs do-nothing $-7,825) |
| $195 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $5,325 | $5,365 | 67% | 76% | +$1,515 | -$7,997 | 47.0% | $-10,980 (vs do-nothing $-8,235) |
| $197.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 4/5 | $5,031 | $4,840 | 67% | 75% | +$1,258 | -$8,902 | 52.4% | $-11,965 (vs do-nothing $-9,220) |
| $200 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 4/5 | $5,280 | $5,089 | 66% | 75% | +$1,321 | -$6,562 | 38.6% | $-9,625 (vs do-nothing $-6,880) |
| $197.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 4/5 | $5,760 | $5,569 | 64% | 74% | +$1,298 | -$7,242 | 42.6% | $-10,305 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $195 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 4/5 | $5,677 | $5,486 | 63% | 73% | +$1,152 | -$9,622 | 56.6% | $-12,685 (vs do-nothing $-9,940) |
| $192.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $6,675 | $6,715 | 61% | 73% | +$1,586 | -$8,477 | 49.9% | $-11,460 (vs do-nothing $-8,715) |
| $195 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 4/5 | $5,970 | $5,779 | 61% | 72% | +$953 | -$8,102 | 47.7% | $-11,165 (vs do-nothing $-8,420) |
| $192.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $5,192 | $5,232 | 59% | 71% | +$1,146 | -$7,562 | 44.5% | $-10,545 (vs do-nothing $-7,800) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $192.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $5,040 | $5,080 | 58% | 71% | +$821 | -$6,452 | 38.0% | $-9,435 (vs do-nothing $-6,690) |
| $190 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 3/5 | $5,535 | $5,575 | 55% | 69% | +$817 | -$6,872 | 40.4% | $-9,855 (vs do-nothing $-7,110) |
| $190 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $5,600 | $5,871 | 55% | 69% | +$1,156 | -$5,921 | 34.8% | $-8,825 (vs do-nothing $-6,080) |
| $190 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $5,954 | $5,994 | 54% | 69% | +$1,162 | -$7,982 | 47.0% | $-10,965 (vs do-nothing $-8,220) |
| $187.50 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 3/5 | $6,120 | $6,160 | 52% | 68% | +$862 | -$7,232 | 42.5% | $-10,215 (vs do-nothing $-7,470) |
| $187.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $6,785 | $6,824 | 50% | 67% | +$1,149 | -$8,372 | 49.2% | $-11,355 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
| $187.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $6,750 | $7,021 | 48% | 66% | +$1,046 | -$6,191 | 36.4% | $-9,095 (vs do-nothing $-6,350) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.