5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $226.71 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $11,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $434/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $202.50 | 87% | $6,188 | $2,734 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $200 | 72% | $6,477 | $1,964 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $230 | 17 Jul | 4d | 21.6% | 99+% | 1% | $65 | $488 | -$5,700 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $230 21.6% OTM over spot $189.16 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $65 credit for the 4d cycle → $488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $230.15) 99+% EV / mo +$478 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.5] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,079 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,814 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $248 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.14/sh now → $5.76 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $226.71: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,384 (+$12,616 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$353, the opportunity cost of earning $488/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $207.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.7% | 93% | 14% | $550 | $4,125 | -$2,062 | $9,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $207.50 9.7% OTM over spot $189.16 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.20 mid) = $550 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $207.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $208.70) 94% EV / mo +$3,371 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,196 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,048 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.35/sh now → $5.20 mid-life (likely $4.64–$8.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 283 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $211 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $207.50 is $19 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.10 collected) or spot ≥ $208.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $208)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $207.50): -$9,053 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,438 (+$3,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,700, the opportunity cost of earning $4,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.4% | 90% | 20% | $695 | $5,212 | -$975 | $10,158 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 8.4% OTM over spot $189.16 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.52 mid) = $695 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $206.52) 92% EV / mo +$3,996 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,035 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,871 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $231 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.26/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $4.78–$8.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 396 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $209 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $22 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $206.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$10,158 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,543 (+$2,457 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,805, the opportunity cost of earning $5,212/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.1% | 87% | 18% | $825 | $6,188 | — | $11,278 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 7.1% OTM over spot $189.16 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $825 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $204.34) 89% EV / mo +$4,254 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,412 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,710 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $233 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.17/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $4.86–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 545 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $206 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $24 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $204.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$11,278 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,663 (+$1,337 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,925, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $195 | 17 Jul | 4d | 3.1% | 70% | 62% | $1,775 | $13,312 | +$7,125 | $14,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $195 3.1% OTM over spot $189.16 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $3.80 mid) = $1,775 credit for the 4d cycle → $13,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $198.80) 79% EV / mo +$6,488 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.3] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~12.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,660 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 45% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$666 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $236 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.90/sh now → $4.88 mid-life (likely $5.80–$9.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.33/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,338 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $199 (overshoots $3.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $32 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.89/sh (~25% of the $3.55 collected) or spot ≥ $198.80 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $195): -$14,078 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,463 ($-1,463 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,725, the opportunity cost of earning $13,312/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $235 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.2% | 98% | 4% | $165 | $450 | -$6,027 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $235 24.2% OTM over spot $189.16 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $165 credit for the 11d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $235) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $235.71) 98% EV / mo +$406 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.1-3.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,361 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,371 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $243 @ 74% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.95/sh now → $8.45 mid-life (likely $5.60–$11.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 94 simulated challenges: the $235 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $239 (overshoots $4.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $235 is at/above CC-SS $226.71: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $235.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $235)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $235): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $225): -$141 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,526 (+$12,474 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$212, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $217.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 15.0% | 90% | 20% | $695 | $1,895 | -$4,582 | $3,908 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $217.50 15.0% OTM over spot $189.16 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.72 mid) = $695 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,895/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $217.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $219.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,045 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.2] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,133 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,217 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $228 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.06/sh now → $7.82 mid-life (likely $6.22–$10.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 397 simulated challenges: the $218 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $221 (overshoots $3.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $217.50 is $9 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $219.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $218)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $217.50): -$3,908 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,293 (+$8,707 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,555, the opportunity cost of earning $1,895/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $207.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.7% | 82% | 38% | $1,500 | $4,091 | -$2,386 | $8,103 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $207.50 9.7% OTM over spot $189.16 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.17 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $207.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $210.68) 85% EV / mo +$1,994 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.4 mo [1.2-4.5] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,618 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,233 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $223 @ 80% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.55/sh now → $7.47 mid-life (likely $7.13–$11.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $208 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $211 (overshoots $3.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $207.50 is $19 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $210.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $208)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $207.50): -$8,103 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,488 (+$4,512 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,750, the opportunity cost of earning $4,091/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 24 Jul | 11d | 5.7% | 72% | 46% | $2,375 | $6,477 | — | $10,978 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 5.7% OTM over spot $189.16 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.03 mid) = $2,375 credit for the 11d cycle → $6,477/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $205.03) 79% EV / mo +$2,455 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,532 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,223 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $226 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.17/sh now → $7.20 mid-life (likely $8.15–$11.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,380 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $204 (overshoots $3.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $27 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.19/sh (~25% of the $4.75 collected) or spot ≥ $205.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$10,978 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,363 (+$1,637 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,625, the opportunity cost of earning $6,477/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $190 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 54% | 96% | $4,300 | $11,727 | +$5,250 | $14,053 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $190 0.4% OTM over spot $189.16 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $8.88 mid) = $4,300 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $190) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $198.88) 70% EV / mo +$2,925 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.2 mo [1.1-4.0] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.7 mo) · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~19.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,221 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$882 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $223 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.66/sh now → $6.84 mid-life (likely $9.56–$12.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $8.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,373 simulated challenges: the $190 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $194 (overshoots $4.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $190 is $37 below CC-SS $226.71: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.15/sh (~25% of the $8.60 collected) or spot ≥ $198.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $190)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $226.71, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,616 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $190): -$14,053 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,438 ($-1,438 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,738 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,700, the opportunity cost of earning $11,727/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.672 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,616 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,738
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $202.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 5/5 | $6,188 | $5,753 | 87% | 89% | +$4,254 | -$11,278 | 66.3% | $-18,663 (vs do-nothing $-10,925) |
| $200 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 4/5 | $6,780 | $6,618 | 82% | 86% | +$4,367 | -$9,778 | 57.5% | $-17,234 (vs do-nothing $-9,496) |
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $6,750 | $6,861 | 76% | 83% | +$3,991 | -$7,862 | 46.2% | $-15,388 (vs do-nothing $-7,650) |
| $205 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 5/5 | $5,917 | $5,482 | 72% | 79% | +$1,963 | -$7,303 | 43.0% | $-14,688 (vs do-nothing $-6,950) |
| $200 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $6,477 | $6,043 | 72% | 79% | +$2,455 | -$10,978 | 64.6% | $-18,363 (vs do-nothing $-10,625) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $7,988 | $8,099 | 70% | 79% | +$3,893 | -$8,447 | 49.7% | $-15,973 (vs do-nothing $-8,235) |
| $202.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 5/5 | $6,542 | $6,107 | 69% | 77% | +$2,031 | -$8,178 | 48.1% | $-15,563 (vs do-nothing $-7,825) |
| $197.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 4/5 | $5,945 | $5,784 | 68% | 77% | +$1,989 | -$9,502 | 55.9% | $-16,958 (vs do-nothing $-9,220) |
| $200 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 4/5 | $5,867 | $5,705 | 66% | 76% | +$1,759 | -$7,162 | 42.1% | $-14,618 (vs do-nothing $-6,880) |
| $197.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 4/5 | $6,400 | $6,238 | 64% | 74% | +$1,736 | -$7,842 | 46.1% | $-15,298 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 4/5 | $6,709 | $6,547 | 63% | 74% | +$1,877 | -$10,222 | 60.1% | $-17,678 (vs do-nothing $-9,940) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 2/5 | $6,675 | $7,059 | 62% | 76% | +$2,742 | -$5,951 | 35.0% | $-13,548 (vs do-nothing $-5,810) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 4/5 | $6,633 | $6,472 | 61% | 73% | +$1,354 | -$8,702 | 51.2% | $-16,158 (vs do-nothing $-8,420) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $6,136 | $6,247 | 59% | 72% | +$1,743 | -$8,012 | 47.1% | $-15,538 (vs do-nothing $-7,800) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 4/5 | $7,467 | $7,305 | 57% | 71% | +$1,508 | -$9,202 | 54.1% | $-16,658 (vs do-nothing $-8,920) |
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 3/5 | $6,150 | $6,261 | 54% | 70% | +$1,123 | -$7,322 | 43.1% | $-14,848 (vs do-nothing $-7,110) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $8,784 | 54% | 72% | +$2,789 | -$6,221 | 36.6% | $-13,818 (vs do-nothing $-6,080) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 3/5 | $7,036 | $7,147 | 54% | 70% | +$1,755 | -$8,432 | 49.6% | $-15,958 (vs do-nothing $-8,220) |
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 3/5 | $6,800 | $6,911 | 51% | 68% | +$1,166 | -$7,682 | 45.2% | $-15,208 (vs do-nothing $-7,470) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $8,018 | $8,129 | 49% | 68% | +$1,724 | -$8,822 | 51.9% | $-16,348 (vs do-nothing $-8,610) |
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $10,125 | $10,509 | 46% | 68% | +$2,620 | -$6,491 | 38.2% | $-14,088 (vs do-nothing $-6,350) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.