5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $220.01 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $16,541/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $434/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $200 | 93% | $8,475 | $5,730 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $195 | 75% | $8,386 | $2,398 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $230 | 17 Jul | 4d | 25.8% | 99+% | 0% | $65 | $488 | -$7,988 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $230 25.8% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $65 credit for the 4d cycle → $488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $230.15) 99+% EV / mo +$486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.8] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,962 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,544 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $245 @ 80% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.04/sh now → $9.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $220.01: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,244 (+$16,756 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-500, the opportunity cost of earning $488/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 95% | 10% | $825 | $6,188 | -$2,288 | $7,928 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 10.8% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $825 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $204.34) 96% EV / mo +$5,763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,670 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,233 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.48/sh now → $8.12 mid-life (likely $6.60–$11.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 193 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $206 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $18 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $204.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$7,928 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,172 (+$8,828 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,428, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.4% | 93% | 9% | $1,130 | $8,475 | — | $8,873 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 9.4% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.38 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $202.38) 95% EV / mo +$7,739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,421 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,878 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.34/sh now → $8.02 mid-life (likely $6.76–$13.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $204 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $20 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $202.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$8,873 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,117 (+$7,883 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,373, the opportunity cost of earning $8,475/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.3% | 80% | 40% | $2,225 | $16,688 | +$8,212 | $11,528 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 5.3% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $4.75 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $197.25) 89% EV / mo +$13,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~7.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,600 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,633 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $230 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.91/sh now → $7.72 mid-life (likely $8.07–$14.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $196 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $28 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$11,528 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,772 (+$5,228 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,028, the opportunity cost of earning $16,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $232.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.2% | 99% | 2% | $204 | $556 | -$7,830 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $232.50 27.2% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $204 credit for the 11d cycle → $556/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $232.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $233.21) 99% EV / mo +$529 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.7] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $154 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,611 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $237 @ 75% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.02/sh now → $12.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $232.50 is at/above CC-SS $220.01: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $233.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $232)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $232.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,144 (+$16,856 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-400, the opportunity cost of earning $556/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $210 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.9% | 91% | 19% | $1,295 | $3,532 | -$4,855 | $3,708 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $210 14.9% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.73 mid) = $1,295 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,532/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $212.74) 92% EV / mo +$2,779 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,908 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,141 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 78% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.37/sh now → $10.87 mid-life (likely $8.78–$15.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $214 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $10 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.65/sh (~25% of the $2.59 collected) or spot ≥ $212.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $210): -$3,708 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,952 (+$13,048 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,208, the opportunity cost of earning $3,532/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.8% | 84% | 33% | $2,050 | $5,591 | -$2,795 | $6,703 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 10.8% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $206.85) 88% EV / mo +$3,995 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,673 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,192 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.82/sh now → $10.48 mid-life (likely $10.00–$15.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $206 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $18 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $206.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$6,703 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,947 (+$10,053 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,203, the opportunity cost of earning $5,591/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $195 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.7% | 75% | 44% | $3,075 | $8,386 | — | $9,428 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $195 6.7% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.50 mid) = $3,075 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,386/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $201.50) 83% EV / mo +$5,114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,145 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,973 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.27/sh now → $10.10 mid-life (likely $11.12–$15.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,305 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $199 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $25 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.54/sh (~25% of the $6.15 collected) or spot ≥ $201.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $195): -$9,428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,672 (+$7,328 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,928, the opportunity cost of earning $8,386/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.1% | 52% | 99+% | $6,200 | $16,909 | +$8,523 | $12,553 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $182.50 0.1% ITM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $13.00 mid) = $6,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $195.50) 75% EV / mo +$7,632 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,476 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $212 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.36/sh now → $9.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $38 below CC-SS $220.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.10/sh (~25% of the $12.40 collected) or spot ≥ $195.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,756 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $182.50): -$12,553 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,797 (+$4,203 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,744 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,053, the opportunity cost of earning $16,909/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$16,756 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,744
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $8,475 | $8,041 | 93% | 95% | +$7,739 | -$8,873 | 52.2% | $-12,117 (vs do-nothing $-9,373) |
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $9,000 | $8,838 | 90% | 93% | +$8,001 | -$7,802 | 45.9% | $-10,946 (vs do-nothing $-8,202) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 4/5 | $10,650 | $10,488 | 86% | 91% | +$8,994 | -$8,582 | 50.5% | $-11,726 (vs do-nothing $-8,982) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $10,012 | $10,124 | 80% | 89% | +$8,015 | -$6,917 | 40.7% | $-9,961 (vs do-nothing $-7,217) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $8,386 | $7,952 | 75% | 83% | +$5,114 | -$9,428 | 55.5% | $-12,672 (vs do-nothing $-9,928) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $8,784 | 74% | 87% | +$6,331 | -$4,881 | 28.7% | $-7,825 (vs do-nothing $-5,081) |
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 5/5 | $10,227 | $9,793 | 71% | 82% | +$6,124 | -$10,003 | 58.8% | $-13,247 (vs do-nothing $-10,503) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 5/5 | $8,292 | $7,857 | 68% | 79% | +$3,780 | -$7,528 | 44.3% | $-10,772 (vs do-nothing $-8,028) |
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $10,125 | $10,509 | 67% | 85% | +$7,024 | -$5,151 | 30.3% | $-8,095 (vs do-nothing $-5,351) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $9,382 | $9,220 | 66% | 80% | +$5,299 | -$8,562 | 50.4% | $-11,706 (vs do-nothing $-8,962) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 5/5 | $9,333 | $8,899 | 66% | 78% | +$4,167 | -$8,153 | 48.0% | $-11,397 (vs do-nothing $-8,653) |
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 5/5 | $10,250 | $9,816 | 63% | 77% | +$4,353 | -$8,853 | 52.1% | $-12,097 (vs do-nothing $-9,353) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 4/5 | $10,691 | $10,529 | 61% | 78% | +$5,659 | -$9,082 | 53.4% | $-12,226 (vs do-nothing $-9,482) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 4/5 | $9,067 | $8,905 | 59% | 75% | +$3,701 | -$7,562 | 44.5% | $-10,706 (vs do-nothing $-7,962) |
| $185 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $12,225 | $12,609 | 59% | 82% | +$7,751 | -$5,371 | 31.6% | $-8,315 (vs do-nothing $-5,571) |
| $185 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/5 | $8,795 | $8,907 | 57% | 76% | +$4,188 | -$7,277 | 42.8% | $-10,321 (vs do-nothing $-7,577) |
| $185 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 4/5 | $9,867 | $9,705 | 56% | 74% | +$3,788 | -$8,082 | 47.5% | $-11,226 (vs do-nothing $-8,482) |
| $182.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.30 | 4/5 | $10,867 | $10,705 | 53% | 73% | +$4,008 | -$8,482 | 49.9% | $-11,626 (vs do-nothing $-8,882) |
| $182.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 3/5 | $10,145 | $10,257 | 52% | 75% | +$4,579 | -$7,532 | 44.3% | $-10,576 (vs do-nothing $-7,832) |
| $182.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/5 | $14,475 | $14,859 | 50% | 80% | +$8,256 | -$5,571 | 32.8% | $-8,515 (vs do-nothing $-5,771) |
| $180 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.35 | 3/5 | $8,675 | $8,786 | 48% | 75% | +$3,719 | -$6,797 | 40.0% | $-9,841 (vs do-nothing $-7,097) |
| $180 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.80 | 3/5 | $11,291 | $11,402 | 47% | 74% | +$4,637 | -$7,862 | 46.2% | $-10,906 (vs do-nothing $-8,162) |
| $180 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 1/5 | $8,700 | $9,357 | 42% | 79% | +$4,530 | -$2,841 | 16.7% | $-5,685 (vs do-nothing $-2,941) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.