5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $220.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $16,541/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $434/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $200 | 93% | $8,475 | $5,730 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $195 | 75% | $8,386 | $2,398 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $230 | 17 Jul | 4d | 25.8% | 99+% | 0% | $65 | $488 | -$7,988 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $230 25.8% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $65 credit for the 4d cycle → $488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $230.15) 99+% EV / mo +$486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-4.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.1 mo) · 52% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-3,141 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,544 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $245 @ 80% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.04/sh now → $9.22 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $220.14: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,445 (+$12,555 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-500, the opportunity cost of earning $488/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 95% | 10% | $825 | $6,188 | -$2,288 | $7,994 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 10.8% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $825 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $204.34) 96% EV / mo +$5,763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.5 mo [1.4-4.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,192 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,233 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.48/sh now → $8.12 mid-life (likely $6.60–$11.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 193 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $206 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $18 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $204.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$7,994 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,438 (+$4,562 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,494, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.4% | 93% | 9% | $1,130 | $8,475 | — | $8,939 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 9.4% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.38 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $202.38) 95% EV / mo +$7,739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.3-4.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,649 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,878 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.34/sh now → $8.02 mid-life (likely $6.76–$13.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $204 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $20 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $202.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$8,939 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,383 (+$3,617 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,439, the opportunity cost of earning $8,475/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 5.3% | 80% | 40% | $2,225 | $16,688 | +$8,212 | $11,594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 5.3% OTM over spot $182.77 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $4.75 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $197.25) 89% EV / mo +$13,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.2-3.7] median, 0.6 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.6 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~7.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,090 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,633 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $230 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.91/sh now → $7.72 mid-life (likely $8.07–$14.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $196 (overshoots $3.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $28 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$11,594 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,038 (+$962 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,094, the opportunity cost of earning $16,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $232.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.2% | 99% | 2% | $204 | $556 | -$7,830 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $232.50 27.2% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $204 credit for the 11d cycle → $556/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $232.50) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $233.21) 99% EV / mo +$529 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.6 mo [1.5-4.8] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (2.5 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 50% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~0.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $185 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,611 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $237 @ 75% POP 59% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $17.02/sh now → $12.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$11.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $232.50 is at/above CC-SS $220.14: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $233.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $232)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $232.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $225): +$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,345 (+$12,655 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-400, the opportunity cost of earning $556/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $210 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.9% | 91% | 19% | $1,295 | $3,532 | -$4,855 | $3,774 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $210 14.9% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.73 mid) = $1,295 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,532/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $210) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $212.74) 92% EV / mo +$2,779 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.3 mo [1.2-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.4 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,178 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,141 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 78% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $15.37/sh now → $10.87 mid-life (likely $8.78–$15.27) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $210 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $214 (overshoots $4.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $210 is $10 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.65/sh (~25% of the $2.59 collected) or spot ≥ $212.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $210)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $210): -$3,774 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,218 (+$8,782 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,274, the opportunity cost of earning $3,532/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.8% | 84% | 33% | $2,050 | $5,591 | -$2,795 | $6,769 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 10.8% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $206.85) 88% EV / mo +$3,995 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.2-4.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.3 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,942 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 25% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,192 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.82/sh now → $10.48 mid-life (likely $10.00–$15.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $206 (overshoots $3.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $18 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $206.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$6,769 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,213 (+$5,787 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,269, the opportunity cost of earning $5,591/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $195 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.7% | 75% | 44% | $3,075 | $8,386 | — | $9,494 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $195 6.7% OTM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $6.50 mid) = $3,075 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,386/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $195) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $201.50) 83% EV / mo +$5,114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.1-3.6] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.5 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,654 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,973 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.27/sh now → $10.10 mid-life (likely $11.12–$15.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,305 simulated challenges: the $195 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $199 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $195 is $25 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.54/sh (~25% of the $6.15 collected) or spot ≥ $201.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $195)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $195): -$9,494 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,938 (+$3,062 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,994, the opportunity cost of earning $8,386/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $182.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.1% | 52% | 99+% | $6,200 | $16,909 | +$8,523 | $12,619 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $182.50 0.1% ITM over spot $182.77 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $13.00 mid) = $6,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $182.50) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $195.50) 75% EV / mo +$7,632 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,476 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $212 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.36/sh now → $9.45 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $12.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $182.50 is $38 below CC-SS $220.14: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $3.10/sh (~25% of the $12.40 collected) or spot ≥ $195.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $182)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.67 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $220.14, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$12,555 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $182.50): -$12,619 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,063 ($-63 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,119, the opportunity cost of earning $16,909/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.672 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$12,555 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,945
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $8,475 | $8,041 | 93% | 95% | +$7,739 | -$8,939 | 52.6% | $-16,383 (vs do-nothing $-9,439) |
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $9,000 | $8,838 | 90% | 93% | +$8,001 | -$7,855 | 46.2% | $-15,200 (vs do-nothing $-8,255) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 4/5 | $10,650 | $10,488 | 86% | 91% | +$8,994 | -$8,635 | 50.8% | $-15,980 (vs do-nothing $-9,035) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $10,012 | $10,124 | 80% | 89% | +$8,015 | -$6,956 | 40.9% | $-14,201 (vs do-nothing $-7,256) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $8,386 | $7,952 | 75% | 83% | +$5,114 | -$9,494 | 55.8% | $-16,938 (vs do-nothing $-9,994) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $8,784 | 74% | 87% | +$6,331 | -$4,907 | 28.9% | $-12,052 (vs do-nothing $-5,107) |
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 5/5 | $10,227 | $9,793 | 71% | 82% | +$6,124 | -$10,069 | 59.2% | $-17,513 (vs do-nothing $-10,569) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 5/5 | $8,292 | $7,857 | 68% | 79% | +$3,780 | -$7,594 | 44.7% | $-15,038 (vs do-nothing $-8,094) |
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $10,125 | $10,509 | 67% | 85% | +$7,024 | -$5,177 | 30.5% | $-12,322 (vs do-nothing $-5,377) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $9,382 | $9,220 | 66% | 80% | +$5,299 | -$8,615 | 50.7% | $-15,960 (vs do-nothing $-9,015) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 5/5 | $9,333 | $8,899 | 66% | 78% | +$4,167 | -$8,219 | 48.3% | $-15,663 (vs do-nothing $-8,719) |
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 5/5 | $10,250 | $9,816 | 63% | 77% | +$4,353 | -$8,919 | 52.5% | $-16,363 (vs do-nothing $-9,419) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 4/5 | $10,691 | $10,529 | 61% | 78% | +$5,659 | -$9,135 | 53.7% | $-16,480 (vs do-nothing $-9,535) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 4/5 | $9,067 | $8,905 | 59% | 75% | +$3,701 | -$7,615 | 44.8% | $-14,960 (vs do-nothing $-8,015) |
| $185 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $12,225 | $12,609 | 59% | 82% | +$7,751 | -$5,397 | 31.7% | $-12,542 (vs do-nothing $-5,597) |
| $185 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/5 | $8,795 | $8,907 | 57% | 76% | +$4,188 | -$7,316 | 43.0% | $-14,561 (vs do-nothing $-7,616) |
| $185 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 4/5 | $9,867 | $9,705 | 56% | 74% | +$3,788 | -$8,135 | 47.9% | $-15,480 (vs do-nothing $-8,535) |
| $182.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.30 | 4/5 | $10,867 | $10,705 | 53% | 73% | +$4,008 | -$8,535 | 50.2% | $-15,880 (vs do-nothing $-8,935) |
| $182.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 3/5 | $10,145 | $10,257 | 52% | 75% | +$4,579 | -$7,571 | 44.5% | $-14,816 (vs do-nothing $-7,871) |
| $182.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/5 | $14,475 | $14,859 | 50% | 80% | +$8,256 | -$5,597 | 32.9% | $-12,742 (vs do-nothing $-5,797) |
| $180 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.35 | 3/5 | $8,675 | $8,786 | 48% | 75% | +$3,719 | -$6,836 | 40.2% | $-14,081 (vs do-nothing $-7,136) |
| $180 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.80 | 3/5 | $11,291 | $11,402 | 47% | 74% | +$4,637 | -$7,901 | 46.5% | $-15,146 (vs do-nothing $-8,201) |
| $180 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 1/5 | $8,700 | $9,357 | 42% | 79% | +$4,530 | -$2,854 | 16.8% | $-9,898 (vs do-nothing $-2,954) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.