5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $221.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,659/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $434/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $200 | 91% | $8,475 | $5,193 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $197.50 | 76% | $7,432 | $2,142 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $230 | 17 Jul | 4d | 24.9% | 99+% | 0% | $65 | $488 | -$7,988 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $230 24.9% OTM over spot $184.19 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $65 credit for the 4d cycle → $488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $230.15) 99+% EV / mo +$486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-4.0] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,845 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,261 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $246 @ 80% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.23/sh now → $8.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $221.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,199 (+$16,801 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-500, the opportunity cost of earning $488/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 11.3% | 96% | 9% | $695 | $5,212 | -$3,262 | $7,568 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 11.3% OTM over spot $184.19 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.52 mid) = $695 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $206.52) 97% EV / mo +$4,854 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 66% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,251 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,161 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $226 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.90/sh now → $7.71 mid-life (likely $6.70–$11.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 173 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $208 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $17 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $206.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$7,568 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,767 (+$9,233 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,068, the opportunity cost of earning $5,212/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.6% | 91% | 12% | $1,130 | $8,475 | — | $9,633 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 8.6% OTM over spot $184.19 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.38 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $202.38) 94% EV / mo +$7,436 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,299 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,632 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $223 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.64/sh now → $7.52 mid-life (likely $6.53–$12.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $204 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $22 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $202.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$9,633 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,832 (+$7,168 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,133, the opportunity cost of earning $8,475/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.5% | 77% | 47% | $2,225 | $16,688 | +$8,212 | $12,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 4.5% OTM over spot $184.19 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $4.75 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $197.25) 87% EV / mo +$12,334 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.8-2.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~7.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,485 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,396 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $228 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $10.24/sh now → $7.24 mid-life (likely $7.75–$13.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 999 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $196 (overshoots $3.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $29 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$12,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,487 (+$4,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,788, the opportunity cost of earning $16,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $235 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.6% | 98% | 4% | $165 | $450 | -$6,982 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $235 27.6% OTM over spot $184.19 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.71 mid) = $165 credit for the 11d cycle → $450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $235) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $235.71) 98% EV / mo +$398 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~0.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,274 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,234 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $238 @ 73% POP 57% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $16.02/sh now → $11.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $235 is at/above CC-SS $221.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $235.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $235)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $235): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $225): +$200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,999 (+$17,001 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-300, the opportunity cost of earning $450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 15.4% | 91% | 18% | $1,050 | $2,864 | -$4,568 | $3,463 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $212.50 15.4% OTM over spot $184.19 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.28 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,864/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $214.78) 93% EV / mo +$2,153 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 63% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,580 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,073 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 76% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.49/sh now → $10.25 mid-life (likely $8.22–$13.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 362 simulated challenges: the $212 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $216 (overshoots $3.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $9 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $214.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $212.50): -$3,463 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,662 (+$13,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,963, the opportunity cost of earning $2,864/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.9% | 82% | 36% | $2,050 | $5,591 | -$1,841 | $7,463 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 9.9% OTM over spot $184.19 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $206.85) 87% EV / mo +$3,701 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 65% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,603 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,832 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $221 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.81/sh now → $9.76 mid-life (likely $9.34–$14.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 814 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $206 (overshoots $3.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $19 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $206.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$7,463 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,662 (+$9,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,963, the opportunity cost of earning $5,591/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $197.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 7.2% | 76% | 41% | $2,725 | $7,432 | — | $9,288 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $197.50 7.2% OTM over spot $184.19 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.75 mid) = $2,725 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $203.25) 83% EV / mo +$4,410 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~4.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,203 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,037 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $218 @ 85% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.46/sh now → $9.52 mid-life (likely $10.34–$14.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,222 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $201 (overshoots $3.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $24 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.36/sh (~25% of the $5.45 collected) or spot ≥ $203.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $197.50): -$9,288 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,487 (+$7,513 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,788, the opportunity cost of earning $7,432/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 54% | 97% | $5,375 | $14,659 | +$7,227 | $12,888 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 0.4% OTM over spot $184.19 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $11.35 mid) = $5,375 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,659/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $196.35) 74% EV / mo +$6,047 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.5 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~16.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,726 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$915 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $216 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.61/sh now → $8.92 mid-life (likely $12.51–$17.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,361 simulated challenges: the $185 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $189 (overshoots $4.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $37 below CC-SS $221.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.69/sh (~25% of the $10.75 collected) or spot ≥ $196.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.81 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $221.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,801 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$12,888 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,087 (+$3,913 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,699 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,388, the opportunity cost of earning $14,659/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$16,801 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,699
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $8,475 | $8,041 | 91% | 94% | +$7,436 | -$9,633 | 56.7% | $-12,832 (vs do-nothing $-10,133) |
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $9,000 | $8,838 | 87% | 92% | +$7,623 | -$8,410 | 49.5% | $-11,509 (vs do-nothing $-8,810) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $7,988 | $8,099 | 83% | 89% | +$6,320 | -$6,893 | 40.5% | $-9,892 (vs do-nothing $-7,193) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $10,012 | $10,124 | 77% | 87% | +$7,400 | -$7,373 | 43.4% | $-10,372 (vs do-nothing $-7,673) |
| $197.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 5/5 | $7,432 | $6,997 | 76% | 83% | +$4,410 | -$9,288 | 54.6% | $-12,487 (vs do-nothing $-9,788) |
| $200 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 5/5 | $7,333 | $6,899 | 72% | 81% | +$3,582 | -$6,363 | 37.4% | $-9,562 (vs do-nothing $-6,863) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $8,386 | $7,952 | 72% | 81% | +$4,599 | -$10,188 | 59.9% | $-13,387 (vs do-nothing $-10,688) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $8,784 | 70% | 84% | +$5,762 | -$5,185 | 30.5% | $-8,084 (vs do-nothing $-5,385) |
| $197.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 5/5 | $8,000 | $7,566 | 70% | 79% | +$3,692 | -$7,213 | 42.4% | $-10,412 (vs do-nothing $-7,713) |
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $8,182 | $8,020 | 68% | 80% | +$4,412 | -$8,610 | 50.6% | $-11,709 (vs do-nothing $-9,010) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 5/5 | $8,292 | $7,857 | 67% | 78% | +$3,360 | -$8,288 | 48.8% | $-11,487 (vs do-nothing $-8,788) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 4/5 | $7,467 | $7,305 | 64% | 76% | +$2,963 | -$7,130 | 41.9% | $-10,229 (vs do-nothing $-7,530) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $9,382 | $9,220 | 63% | 78% | +$4,730 | -$9,170 | 53.9% | $-12,269 (vs do-nothing $-9,570) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $10,125 | $10,509 | 62% | 82% | +$6,269 | -$5,455 | 32.1% | $-8,354 (vs do-nothing $-5,655) |
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 4/5 | $8,200 | $8,038 | 61% | 75% | +$3,078 | -$7,690 | 45.2% | $-10,789 (vs do-nothing $-8,090) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $8,018 | $8,129 | 59% | 76% | +$3,752 | -$7,268 | 42.8% | $-10,267 (vs do-nothing $-7,568) |
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 4/5 | $9,067 | $8,905 | 58% | 74% | +$3,261 | -$8,170 | 48.1% | $-11,269 (vs do-nothing $-8,570) |
| $185 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 3/5 | $7,400 | $7,511 | 54% | 73% | +$2,483 | -$6,518 | 38.3% | $-9,517 (vs do-nothing $-6,818) |
| $185 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $12,225 | $12,609 | 54% | 79% | +$6,791 | -$5,675 | 33.4% | $-8,574 (vs do-nothing $-5,875) |
| $185 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/5 | $8,795 | $8,907 | 54% | 74% | +$3,628 | -$7,733 | 45.5% | $-10,732 (vs do-nothing $-8,033) |
| $182.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.30 | 3/5 | $8,150 | $8,261 | 51% | 72% | +$2,620 | -$6,818 | 40.1% | $-9,817 (vs do-nothing $-7,118) |
| $182.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 3/5 | $10,145 | $10,257 | 49% | 73% | +$3,950 | -$7,988 | 47.0% | $-10,987 (vs do-nothing $-8,288) |
| $182.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/5 | $14,475 | $14,859 | 46% | 77% | +$7,086 | -$5,875 | 34.6% | $-8,774 (vs do-nothing $-6,075) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.