5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $224.00 | CC-SS: $224.01 (banked floor $222.38) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: RetireInc:7291
| Max Loss | $77,000 | (ND $34.00 + SW $120) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,536/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $434/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-20,000 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $207.5C 17 Jul 2026 | U18827291 | $3.05 | $1,525 | 2026-07-06 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 5 × $200 | 90% | $8,475 | $4,991 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 5 × $197.50 | 75% | $7,432 | $2,083 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $230 | 17 Jul | 4d | 24.3% | 99+% | 0% | $65 | $488 | -$7,988 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $230 24.3% OTM over spot $185.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.15 mid) = $65 credit for the 4d cycle → $488/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $230.15) 99+% EV / mo +$485 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.1 mo [0.6-3.3] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,304 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,853 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $247 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.08/sh now → $7.84 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $224.01: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.13 collected) or spot ≥ $230.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $230): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $608 (+$20,608 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-500, the opportunity cost of earning $488/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $205 | 17 Jul | 4d | 10.8% | 95% | 10% | $695 | $5,212 | -$3,262 | $8,810 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $205 10.8% OTM over spot $185.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.52 mid) = $695 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,212/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $205) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $206.52) 96% EV / mo +$4,758 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,263 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,797 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $227 @ 83% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.88/sh now → $6.98 mid-life (likely $6.21–$11.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 200 simulated challenges: the $205 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $208 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $205 is $19 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $206.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $205)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $205): -$8,810 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,202 (+$11,798 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,310, the opportunity cost of earning $5,212/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $202.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.4% | 93% | 15% | $825 | $6,188 | -$2,288 | $9,930 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 9.4% OTM over spot $185.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.84 mid) = $825 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $204.34) 94% EV / mo +$5,418 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.8-2.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 72% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,610 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,625 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.76/sh now → $6.90 mid-life (likely $6.40–$10.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 298 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $206 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $22 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.65 collected) or spot ≥ $204.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$9,930 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,322 (+$10,678 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,430, the opportunity cost of earning $6,188/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $200 | 17 Jul | 4d | 8.1% | 90% | 14% | $1,130 | $8,475 | — | $10,875 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $200 8.1% OTM over spot $185.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $2.38 mid) = $1,130 credit for the 4d cycle → $8,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $200) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $202.38) 93% EV / mo +$7,194 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,064 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,277 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.64/sh now → $6.81 mid-life (likely $6.06–$11.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 409 simulated challenges: the $200 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $204 (overshoots $3.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $200 is $24 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.26 collected) or spot ≥ $202.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $200)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $200): -$10,875 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,267 (+$9,733 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,375, the opportunity cost of earning $8,475/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $192.50 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.0% | 74% | 52% | $2,225 | $16,688 | +$8,212 | $13,530 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $192.50 4.0% OTM over spot $185.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $4.75 mid) = $2,225 credit for the 4d cycle → $16,688/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $192.50) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $197.25) 85% EV / mo +$11,570 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.7] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 69% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,218 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,054 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $230 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $9.27/sh now → $6.56 mid-life (likely $7.35–$12.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,113 simulated challenges: the $192 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $196 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $192.50 is $32 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.11/sh (~25% of the $4.45 collected) or spot ≥ $197.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $192)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $192.50): -$13,530 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,922 (+$7,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,030, the opportunity cost of earning $16,688/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $230 | 24 Jul | 11d | 24.3% | 97% | 6% | $186 | $507 | -$6,925 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $230 24.3% OTM over spot $185.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.81 mid) = $186 credit for the 11d cycle → $507/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $230) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $230.81) 97% EV / mo +$414 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.4] median · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 70% without) · ~0.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,678 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,948 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $235 @ 74% POP 60% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $14.77/sh now → $10.45 mid-life (likely $6.50–$13.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.62/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 77 simulated challenges: the $230 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $235 (overshoots $4.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $230 is at/above CC-SS $224.01: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.62 collected) or spot ≥ $230.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $230)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $230): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $225): +$200 Total Position P&L @ SS: $808 (+$20,808 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-300, the opportunity cost of earning $507/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $212.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 14.8% | 90% | 20% | $1,050 | $2,864 | -$4,568 | $4,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $212.50 14.8% OTM over spot $185.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.28 mid) = $1,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,864/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $212.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $214.78) 92% EV / mo +$2,062 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.4] median · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,382 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,775 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $225 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.65/sh now → $9.65 mid-life (likely $8.19–$13.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $212 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $216 (overshoots $3.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $212.50 is $12 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.53/sh (~25% of the $2.10 collected) or spot ≥ $214.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $212)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $212.50): -$4,705 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,097 (+$15,903 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,205, the opportunity cost of earning $2,864/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $202.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 9.4% | 81% | 39% | $2,050 | $5,591 | -$1,841 | $8,705 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $202.50 9.4% OTM over spot $185.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $2,050 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,591/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $202.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $206.85) 86% EV / mo +$3,494 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 68% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,413 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,548 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $13.00/sh now → $9.20 mid-life (likely $9.03–$13.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 876 simulated challenges: the $202 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $206 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $202.50 is $22 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $206.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $202)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $202.50): -$8,705 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,097 (+$11,903 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,205, the opportunity cost of earning $5,591/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $197.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 6.7% | 75% | 44% | $2,725 | $7,432 | — | $10,530 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $197.50 6.7% OTM over spot $185.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $5.75 mid) = $2,725 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,432/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $197.50) 75% Breach risk 25% POP (stays ≤ $203.25) 82% EV / mo +$4,110 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.8] median, 0.4 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,833 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,760 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $222 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $12.68/sh now → $8.97 mid-life (likely $9.81–$14.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,312 simulated challenges: the $198 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $201 (overshoots $3.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $197.50 is $27 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.36/sh (~25% of the $5.45 collected) or spot ≥ $203.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $198)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $197.50): -$10,530 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,922 (+$10,078 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,030, the opportunity cost of earning $7,432/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $185 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.0% | 52% | 99+% | $5,375 | $14,659 | +$7,227 | $14,130 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $185 0.0% ITM over spot $185.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $11.35 mid) = $5,375 credit for the 11d cycle → $14,659/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $185) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $196.35) 73% EV / mo +$5,422 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,174 Free roll-up +$8/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $220 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $11.88/sh now → $8.40 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $10.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $185 is $39 below CC-SS $224.01: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $2.69/sh (~25% of the $10.75 collected) or spot ≥ $196.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $185)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $227.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $224.01, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-20,000 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,608 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $185): -$14,130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,522 (+$6,478 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,108 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,630, the opportunity cost of earning $14,659/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.059 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,608 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,108
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $200 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $8,475 | $8,041 | 90% | 93% | +$7,194 | -$10,875 | 64.0% | $-10,267 (vs do-nothing $-11,375) |
| $197.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 4/5 | $9,000 | $8,838 | 86% | 91% | +$7,329 | -$9,404 | 55.3% | $-8,696 (vs do-nothing $-9,804) |
| $195 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 3/5 | $7,988 | $8,099 | 81% | 88% | +$5,996 | -$7,638 | 44.9% | $-6,830 (vs do-nothing $-7,938) |
| $197.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.45 | 5/5 | $7,432 | $6,997 | 75% | 82% | +$4,110 | -$10,530 | 61.9% | $-9,922 (vs do-nothing $-11,030) |
| $192.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $10,012 | $10,124 | 74% | 85% | +$6,942 | -$8,118 | 47.8% | $-7,310 (vs do-nothing $-8,418) |
| $200 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 5/5 | $7,333 | $6,899 | 71% | 80% | +$3,353 | -$7,605 | 44.7% | $-6,997 (vs do-nothing $-8,105) |
| $195 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $8,386 | $7,952 | 71% | 80% | +$4,244 | -$11,430 | 67.2% | $-10,822 (vs do-nothing $-11,930) |
| $197.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 5/5 | $8,000 | $7,566 | 68% | 78% | +$3,439 | -$8,455 | 49.7% | $-7,847 (vs do-nothing $-8,955) |
| $190 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $8,784 | 67% | 82% | +$5,348 | -$5,682 | 33.4% | $-4,774 (vs do-nothing $-5,882) |
| $192.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $8,182 | $8,020 | 66% | 79% | +$4,079 | -$9,604 | 56.5% | $-8,896 (vs do-nothing $-10,004) |
| $195 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.95 | 5/5 | $8,292 | $7,857 | 66% | 77% | +$3,081 | -$9,530 | 56.1% | $-8,922 (vs do-nothing $-10,030) |
| $192.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 4/5 | $7,467 | $7,305 | 63% | 76% | +$2,719 | -$8,124 | 47.8% | $-7,416 (vs do-nothing $-8,524) |
| $190 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $9,382 | $9,220 | 62% | 77% | +$4,344 | -$10,164 | 59.8% | $-9,456 (vs do-nothing $-10,564) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $190 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 4/5 | $8,200 | $8,038 | 60% | 74% | +$2,810 | -$8,684 | 51.1% | $-7,976 (vs do-nothing $-9,084) |
| $187.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 2/5 | $10,125 | $10,509 | 59% | 79% | +$5,731 | -$5,952 | 35.0% | $-5,044 (vs do-nothing $-6,152) |
| $187.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $8,018 | $8,129 | 57% | 75% | +$3,420 | -$8,013 | 47.1% | $-7,205 (vs do-nothing $-8,313) |
| $187.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.60 | 4/5 | $9,067 | $8,905 | 56% | 73% | +$2,971 | -$9,164 | 53.9% | $-8,456 (vs do-nothing $-9,564) |
| $185 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 3/5 | $7,400 | $7,511 | 53% | 72% | +$2,248 | -$7,263 | 42.7% | $-6,455 (vs do-nothing $-7,563) |
| $185 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.75 | 3/5 | $8,795 | $8,907 | 52% | 73% | +$3,253 | -$8,478 | 49.9% | $-7,670 (vs do-nothing $-8,778) |
| $185 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $12,225 | $12,609 | 51% | 77% | +$6,121 | -$6,172 | 36.3% | $-5,264 (vs do-nothing $-6,372) |
| $182.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.30 | 3/5 | $8,150 | $8,261 | 50% | 71% | +$2,368 | -$7,563 | 44.5% | $-6,755 (vs do-nothing $-7,863) |
| $182.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 3/5 | $10,145 | $10,257 | 47% | 71% | +$3,531 | -$8,733 | 51.4% | $-7,925 (vs do-nothing $-9,033) |
| $182.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.65 | 2/5 | $14,475 | $14,859 | 43% | 74% | +$6,283 | -$6,372 | 37.5% | $-5,464 (vs do-nothing $-6,572) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.